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Interest rates have 'nowhere to go but up' says Flaherty

(Sean Kilpatrick/THE CANADIAN PRESS) Minister of Finance Jim Flaherty rises during Question Period in the House of Commons on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, Monday, June 20, 2011. (Adrian Wyld / THE CANADIAN PRESS) Finance Minister Jim Flaherty speaks at the unveiling of new Canadian bank notes, Monday, June 20, 2011.
(Sean Kilpatrick/THE CANADIAN PRESS)

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Date: Sunday Jun. 26, 2011 9:34 PM ET

Warning about the dangers of unchecked debt on both a global and household scale, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty on Sunday said Europe and the U.S. must do more to restore stability in their own backyards -- just as Canadians must tread carefully when taking on long-term debt like mortgages.

"We are cautioning people not to assume too much long-term debt on the assumption that interest rates will stay as low as they are -- because they won't," Flaherty said Sunday on CTV's Question Period.

"We want to make sure Canadian households plan ahead and know, if they renew a mortgage in the next several years, it's likely that the interest rate will be higher," he added.

"Interest rates have nowhere to go but up."

Flaherty's remarks echo those of a Bank of Canada report last week that said high household debt is now the most significant risk to the Canadian economy.

The report came one day after Statistics Canada noted that "rock-bottom" interest rates are luring more Canadians deeper into debt. The ratio of household debt rose to 149.47 per cent in the first quarter of 2011, meaning Canadians owe $1.49 for every after-tax dollar they earn.

Statistics Canada also said Canadian debt ratios are "leaving their U.S. counterparts in the rear-view mirror, despite the repeated exhortations by domestic policymakers to rein in borrowing."

Flaherty warned that Canada and other countries could be hurt unless more is done to help the ailing economy of Greece.

"We think there is a danger of contagion if there is a failure in Greece," said Flaherty, noting that its money troubles could spread to banks elsewhere in the EU, leading to a credit crisis similar to that of 2007.

Flaherty said protecting the European and, by extension, world economies would probably require "a substantial package" for Greece from the EU and IMF.

Closer to home the minister added that the runaway debt and deficit in the U.S. is also a "serious concern" that needs to be addressed before the next presidential election in order to restore confidence in the U.S. economy.

Despite the uncertainties in the global economy, Flaherty said the government's plan to eliminate the federal deficit within three years is still "on track."

"We do expect some softening in growth the latter part of this year," he said, "but overall for this year we're exactly where we should be."

Comments are now closed for this story

IF
said

I can see some very good comments. The best: “Don't worry, be happy”. I just wanted to add if you want to buy a house when it is cheap, it will never happen. Buy house when you have chance to afford it! Of course don't worry, be happy.


Hike interest rates
said

Better hike those interest rates soon. Debt is already a problem and gotten worse. Should of started raising it last year but I think it's too late. People are using lines of credits to pay there credit card payments and who knows what else. Start raising interest rates already I mean even tomorrow before it's too late. I think it's going to be a interesting a year, already is.


Mike in TO
said

I would like to point out that Major Financial Institutions in Canada must approve new Mortgage clients at the Bank of Canada qualifying rate of 5.39% which is considerably higher than current mortgage rates. That being said rates will definitely be higher in a few years and there may be a lot of homes on the market if current owners cannot afford payments.


Don't worry, be happy
said

Don't be fooled by someone living in Toronto or Edmonton proclaiming home ownership is out of reach. Housing is still very affordable outside of major urban centers and for people not chasing petro dollars or trying to live in Vancouver, Toronto, Ottawa or Montreal, owning a house is very easily afforded. Interest rates are stable for at least 3 years (2014). That doesn't mean the banks won't jack up their lending rates periodically to scare people into locking in but a variable rate mortgage is the way to go until 2014. The US economy is entering a double or even triple dip recession. The US job market is contracting, GDP growth is flat and US government borrowing is obscene. Until the US economy recovers, interest rates here will remain low. Enjoy the opportunity of a lifetime to buy a house. Don't let the pessimists and naysayers scare you away, most don't know what they're talking about.


Russian Roulette Debt
said

Raise interest rates while the US just declared no interest rate hikes for 3 years after QE2. Great way to drive the Loonie to $1.20 vs the green back. And watch all exports to the US dry up and unemployment skyrocket, especially in Ontario! Canada sells $500 Billion to the US annually which is about 50% of our manufacturing capacity. Ontario jobs will then need to be exported to China because we cannot compete! Again, Canada has no policy b/c the Conservatives fly by the seat of their pants. The Finance Minister should return to his roots and retire because economics is not his strong suit! Thank goodness we are in summer recess we don't need any more smart comments like that to be embarrassed with! Hint, the US debt and deficit is so bad that 40% of all taxes are used to service debt. Because we are GDP tied at the hip with the US we have no choice but to follow suit with US economic policy which is inflation ($14 Trillion debt, and $1.5 Trillion annual deficit).


blah blah blah
said

OK OK so yes people owe money on a house, but I don't think that is killing them, it is the cell phone bills, the 2 car payments, the flat screen TV's in each and every room, the fancy dinners out that they just "need" to have...come on people, I am 45, own and have no mortgage on my house, have no personal cell phone, no flat screen TV's and when i first bought my house, had to take on renters to make ends meet...2 people do not need a 4 bedroom house with a 3 car garage...plain and simple...It is easier to blame others for your problems but give me your budget for a year or two and you will see what can be done if you have to...I see people buy their lunches at work each and every day...there goes at least 200$ per month...I suppose times 2 that would be 400$ per month that could be better spent elsewhere if you really need to...stop blaming others people take some repsonsibility...


Tom in Toronto
said

Higher interest rate will also increase Canada's debt servicing costs. This means higher taxes down the road or deep cut.


George V.
said

Everyone knows the interest rates at present time are artificially low and in the not too distant future we will have a day of reckoning. The word on this has been out there for sometime, anyone who does not heed the message has no one else to blame but themselves. A fool and their over mortgaged house are soon parted.


Bruce from Alberta
said

The issue has been self inflicted.Wages have gone up 32%, house prices 152% in the last 10 years.I don't think a bust will happen but I think houses will stay close to the same price for 20 years. Which means houses are no longer a good investment. The152% increase in real estate should have been over 30 years not 10.


Ben, Edmonton
said

Home ownership is risky to get into right now. Nobody knows what is going to happen in the next few years in Canada. So many people here live beyond their means - personal debt is skyrocketing, and if more trouble develops in the US, it's going to have a ripple effect here and there are going to be a lot of bankruptcies. I think that the market value of a run-of-the-mill house is considerably higher than what it ought to be, and that they are going to drop a lot if/when more economic trouble develops. So if you're sitting around today thinking "Yeah, I've got enough to put down 5% down on this $400,000 house, and the payments are only half my net income" - you're headed for trouble.


Mike in Pembroke
said

Reece said Very wise words indeed although the sobering message is that you will probably NEVER own a house in your life. I do not agree with you Reece. I own my home with no mortgage. How did my wife and I do it well we started by not buying the biggest and best house on the market even though that bank would have given us the mortgage for the bigger house. I was making between $45 to $50 grand a year when we bought and paid off the house. What we bought was a little smaller and a few years older house then what we first thought about. We watched our money and made one extra payment each year which went right on the principle. It took us less then 14 years to pay off our mortgage and now we have taken the money we were putting into our mortgage payments and started to do some major work on the house, like new hardwood floors throughout, new windows all around etc. Yes you can buy a house just do not max yourself out monthly on mortgage payments because if the interest rates go up and you have to mortgage, you are in trouble. Bigger is not always better and does not make a house a home.


Ray, Mississauga
said

But when will he announce that Christmas will be in December?


Daisee
said

"We do expect some softening in growth the latter part of this year," he said, "but overall for this year we're exactly where we should be." If we're exactly where we should be, then we aren't going anywhere.


Floyd Priddle
said

It's not mortgages - it is using credit to pay for artificially high gas prices from which our government and their partner oil companies are making a killing that is driving hard working Canadians into debt. Jim, don't lecture us on debt, talk to your bosses about the skyrocketing cost of living they are allowing to occur.


Len
said

While I understand why rates will go up it is sad that the banks will do so yet. Household debt is rising but the economy is still in a very fragile state, even in Canada. Meaningful jobs are not being created except in small pockets of the country, energy costs are rising and the average person has difficulty in meeting these higher costs (but the companies and shareholders are getting richer by the day on these higher prices). If the gov't allows interest rates to go higher big business will send the average taxpayer into the poor house all the while laughing at how much money they are going to make. If this comes true the gov't should halt the planned tax reduction to business. If not the gov't is showing its true colors - help those at the top at the expense of the average joe.


Financial planner
said

Those living on the edge with large mortgage payments best start figuring out how to curtail their spending because a few points in the interest rates will put a definite pinch on the budget. I suspect we will see a cooling in retail housing prices once the rates begin to rise as foreclosures and forced sales kick in. The real estate market in my view has been out of control and reality for years now. A sobering jack in rates may just bring things back to historical norms.


Prof. Pye Chartt
said

Yes, I/we get it. However, the alarm bell has been ringing for a while now, and the prediction of significantly higher interest rates by this time has proven false. The economy isn't doing badly, at all, but, robust parts of it overshadow the larger picture...which is that things are still firming up (read: segmentally soft). Ultimately, the prospect of markedly higher mortgage rates (which actually ticked backward recently) isn't overwhelming. The real estate market in Canada is, arguably, somewhat "overvalued" in many areas. Anyway, point taken, Mr. Flaherty. Thanks.


To Late!
said

The Government allowed large mortgage loans and equity debt to accumulate. The Banks are making billions of dollars on the low interest loans. Now they need more on the backs of the working class families? Why not put them out on the streets, follow the proven American lead. The waggon is running fine, why break the wheels? Other motives I think.


Duke
said

Jack those rates, Jim. Time for some middle class to become deferential and bow to me on the street.


Reece
said

Very wise words indeed although the sobering message is that you will probably NEVER own a house in your life. Get used to paying your rent on time. Don't spend your money. Finish work, go home, sleep early so you can wake up early and go to work on time the next morning. Seems logical to me! Very wise words, Mr Flaherty. In 5 years the mortgage rates will be up and people who dared go into the market early should be prepared for some hurt time. Thanks for the heads up, Flaherty. You should have also warned those that currently have homes to get ready to migrate east into small towns where it will be more affordable for them. Commuting will be painful but you need to live within your means. I think the only people who will afford to buy homes are the communist Chinese. I LOVE Chinese goods too - I don't buy any Canadian made crap anymore either. Perhaps our PM could increase immigration too. The current levels of immigration are impressive but I think we could do better. Kirk out.


Stu
said

The conservatives love to see our banks make billions in profit on the backs of the working man.


Old Ted
said

When you print a lot of money, you get inflation. In the US you CAN'T borrow money so there isn't any floating around to cause big inflation.....yet. It will come and possibly as stag-flation. There is no way to cheat your way out of debt, even by printing money. There is always a cost.


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