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Public sector cuts won't net promised savings: watchdog

(Fred Chartrand/THE CANADIAN PRESS) Finance Minister Jim Flaherty speaks during the grand opening of the GM Automotive Centre of Excellence at the University of Ontario Institute of Technology in Oshawa, Ont. on Monday, June 13, 2011. (Frank Gunn / THE CANADIAN PRESS) Minister of Finance Jim Flaherty laughs as he answers questions in the House of Commons after delivering the federal budget on Parliament Hill in Ottawa on Monday, June 6, 2011. (Adrian Wyld / THE CANADIAN PRESS) Federal Finance Minister Jim Flaherty tables the budget in House of Commons in Ottawa, Monday, June 6, 2011
(Fred Chartrand/THE CANADIAN PRESS)

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Date: Monday Jun. 13, 2011 5:44 PM ET

After scrutinizing the government's spending plans, Canada's federal budget watchdog says promised job cuts alone won't be enough to meet the savings goals set by Finance Minister Jim Flaherty.

In his latest report published Tuesday, Parliamentary Budget Officer Kevin Page said plans to slash 6,000 full-time, public service jobs in the next three years will only net one-third of the $1.8 billion Flaherty has said he hopes to save by then.

In his 2010 budget, Flaherty froze operating budgets in order to meet his goals.

But in his report, Page notes that the government's latest spending plans call for an additional $1.7 billion to be paid for personnel next year.

"Given the apparent difference in direction between the freeze targets established in Budget 2010 and the authorities being sought in the 2011-12 Estimates, parliamentarians may wish to seek additional information from the government on the strategy and plans to achieve the operational savings along with implications by department," the report states.

Other areas Page suggests warrant Parliamentarians attention include:

  • "details of the assumptions and reasonableness" of the government's spending plans
  • "confirmation that the planned decreases in capital spending are sustainable" and will not wind up saddling the government with a pile of deteriorating assets
  • the rise in government spending through "tax expenditures" which fund programs by means of tax credits, deductions or exemptions that never make it into the accounting for, or scrutiny of overall expenditures

The collection of reports published Monday also included the PBO's first-ever independent medium-term economic outlook.

In its analysis, the PBO projects real gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 2.2 in 2012, 2.3 per cent in 2013 and an average of 2.8 per cent annually between 2014 and 2016.

"Relative to PBO's economic projection, the average private sector forecast of real GDP growth presented in the March 2011 budget suggests a more rapid recovery," the report states.

Similarly, the PBO diverges from Finance Canada on the subject of budgetary deficits.

"On a cumulative basis, PBO projects budgetary deficits totalling $128.2 billion over the period 2010-11 to 2015-16, which is significantly higher than the $93.6 billion projected by Finance Canada over the same period," the report states, attributing the discrepancy to its own higher projected operating expenses.

In light of those figures, the report pegs the chance of balancing the budget by 2014-15 at just 20 per cent, rising to 35 per cent the following year.

In his latest budget, Flaherty pledged to find $4 billion of annual savings as he works to balance the budget in four years.

With files from The Canadian Press

Comments are now closed for this story

Peter in MB
said

What we have here is a frailer to communicate between two accountants… Jim Flaherty and Kevin Page. Jim Flaherty constantly talks to economists and bankers of Canada and other countries. Jim Flaherty knows that the world economy can change on a month to month basses and has considered that in his budget. Kevin Page on the other hand just states his un-informed opinions that has been proven Wrong many times.Personally I would sooner trust a penny pinching Irishman like Jim Flaherty whom has been fairly accurate in his predictions then a fool like Kevin Page whom has a track record of always being wrong.


5th Generation Canadian
said

It will be interesting to see how many of you continue to believe in the honesty and integrity of this government four years from now.Thank you, I'll take Mr. Page's word over the garbage and lies spewing from the mouths of politicans. Any Day.


Firinn
said

As most of you astute economic wizards have decreed , the Harper and Flaherty band wagon will make the LARGEST DEFICIT in Canadian history magically vanish. Very amazing considering the new economic EARTHQUAKES to come, especially the EU and the mighty AMERICAN empire to fall. To be a HARPER GOVERNMENT CONSERVATIVE , one must have a degree in DENIAL BS of economics. Yes , I agree Time will certainly tell, and I will call all of you on it, as will the next generation of voters.


Deb
said

Mr. Flaherty is usually wrong and Mr. Page is usually correct so I tend to believe what Mr. Page says as the truth. I don't know if it's a question of competence or not but if I was a gambler I know who I'd bet on being right. Time will tell.


Allen in NS
said

What is new, anything that the government says Page says that it can't happen, I guess all the the bankers and economist that the government talked to are wrong and know it all Mr. Page is right. So how I don't think he is right at all, time will tell.


Alan
said

Kevin Page is a lifelong civil servant working with 14 other highly educated people in his Parliamentary Budget Office.If the speaker's office gets a million dollars I can imagine what it costs for the PB Office.Now we also have the Auditor Generals Department. Both these areas pass judgement on government spending and projections. Maybe they need some private sector people in the government to show them how to create efficiencies.


Vince m
said

The cutting ain't done until the CBC won't run.


Mark
said

Let me see if I have this right. The objective of negative comments about the Parliamentary Budget Officer is that he needs to shut up and only hold a press conference on outcomes because it’s painting a bad picture of the Conservative Government and is having negative consequences on the propaganda spewing from the Conservative Spin Machine. If I remember my Math 101 course in Junior High, if you divide $1.8 billion by 6,000 jobs you get $300K which I tend to agree with the PBO is a little high for a government employees’ yearly salary even with benefits. Now let’s use the PBO calculation, not because he has a Masters in Economics, his calculation is 60,000 employees at $100K (pay and benefits) = $6 billion or one-third of the proposed savings. I think I’m going to go with the Parliamentary Budget Officer because I doubt that most jobs will be on the management side of government.


Prof. Pye Chartt
said

Unless you're the type that threw a temper tantrum on Christmas morning, when you discovered that Santa Claus didn't bring you what you wanted and asked for, this simply "conflicting" information (itself merely a modestly educated GUESS with no more economic validity or political legitimacy than the Conservative government's financial estimations and budgetary prognostications, given the track record of the PBO) there's no need to stomp your little feet and pretend that somebody lied to you or broke a tender promise. Try to be an adult. Thanks.


SF Thomas
said

There seem to be some haters of Kevin Page posting right now. For those that assert Page and the PBO have often been wrong the opposite is actually true, it is Flaherty who has almost always been wrong in his projections. Page has often been fairly accurate and has also had to work with incomplete information. The conservatives have purposely made it harder for him to do his job by refusing to give him the information he needs to work with, when they both created the position and appointed him to it.


philip
said

Why don't they privatize the CBC and abolish the CRTC? That would save 6 billion dollars.


What!!! - Ottawa
said

What!!! Kevin Page and his reports...I believe it must be the "solar panel" at work .. if we could all predict the future like Mr. Page seems to think he can..Canada would be in pretty good shape all around...so wait and see what happens....


Bob,Calgary
said

If Page is right let's just cut more civil servants. Service Canada for example , in my dealings with them, seem to be a pretty inefficient organization. CRA also seems to be duplicating a lot of work and constantly tilting at windmills. Most importantly let;s cut equalization transfers to the Maritimes and Quebec so those provinces learn to get off the dole and take care of themselves. If Clement can't cut the required amounts fire him and get someone who can.


Stewie
said

Kevin Page has always been 100% bang on with his numbers. Harper, Flarethy have always been 100% wrong, remember there won't be a recession then Harper added over 120 billion of debit to our country. We pay over 16 million per day in interest because of Harper's spending


Dave H
said

Kevin Page has never foretasted any numbers correctly since he took on the position. The question he needs to answer is why he's briefing the press. Its Parliament he's working for.


Terry
said

Seems to me.Trying to save 1.8 billion and spending 1.7 just on the government personnel doesn't add up.It wasn't that long ago the Feds got 40,000$ and the provincial got 20,000$ per year raise when Harper was getting started.And when they say the word cuts it's the lower paid people in this country that get the axe,not the big execs that hang around soaking up the coin.I see there are either government workers or very rich people commenting here as the only negative thing I see is they say Mr Page is not basing his findings on fact.Well I don't see any facts coming from Flahertys mouth nor any other finance minister for that fact.Robbing Peter to pay Paul never worked before and I don't believe it will now.You want to see negative for real just research the past finances and see how well they have done when they spout off about saving money.We are losing services every year and paying more taxes for less.Our government is trying to get it the same as the United States where we will be paying for all our services eg.OHIP out of our pockets just as they did when they let companies make billions with the farce HYDRO was going to be run by private companies.I knew they wouldn't there is too much money in that buisness to let it go.The people in this country need to open their eyes and wake up before it's too late.Tightening the purse strings has nothing to do with them and alot to do with us.The only difference between a gangster and the government is.At least the gangster shows me the knife he is going to stab me in the back with.


james
said

yes yes lets ignore a different opinion dam right if it does not come from the harper camp it isn’t true only the harper team out of 35 million Canadians know what’s best for the country, only they have the intelligence to predict and plan no one else especially a man(page) who’s only loyalty is to the Canadian people. I mean why trust anyone but the conservatives look at their record of eliminating deficits so what if it was about a hundred years between the last two balanced budgets by the conservatives, who cares if the debt mostly belongs to them despite how little time they have spent in power (300 billion Mulroney, 100 billion and climbing harper) who cares if flarity completely messed up Ontario as finance minister he is conservative so he must know what he is doing when it comes to finance, who cares if the exact same policies the harper government have implemented and plan to implement(pandering to corporate greed, multibillion super prisons despite the fact crime is going down, big military spending, new crime bills that are overly strict and planed without accepting the facts of numerous studies proving how these same type of policies have only made things worse in the states, ignoring the environmental problems) were key in the down fall of the states as a peaceful strong respected society. Yes yes let’s keep selling our soul and rights because the harper government says its best for Canada yep let’s make our self’s junior war mongers like the states because this will guarantee country’s will want to work with us and listen to us because I know when someone is destroying my world I want to give them a big hug of thanks and ask them what can I do for you, no chance this will upset terrorist and make us their new target. Yep let’s listen to Tony clement the man who organized support for the apartheid in Africa (what the harper government truly believes when it comes to immigration), yep let’s listen to the harper government because they choose to ignore facts and deny evolution. Yep let’s put all of our trust and all of our futures in the hands of this honest, caring, fact and evidence based government. WHAT COULD POSSIBLY GO WRONG?


XGovtWkr
said

I find it hilarious that they consider these cuts "job cuts". No one occupies those positions! They budget for empty positions every year and then cheer when they come in on budget. All those Bank of Canada jobs? All of 4 people walked out the door. Not 33! And the people they do let go are casuals or terms. God forbid they cut some union resource suckers. Where does the money go? Overstaffed departments, office supply free for alls, travel, TRANSLATIONS!!! Millions of dollars spent every year on translation. For what? So everyone can read the English version anyway?? As for the travel, what are they traveling for? To attend meetings that can take place by phone, to attend conferences to teach them how to manage people to spend YOUR money! The salaries are ridiculously inflated. Twice what you get in the private sector for the same job. A receptionist makes upwards of $23/hr. There are many government divisions that could shut down completely and the world would go on. We would save millions. Maybe we could shorten the 6 hour wait times in hospital ERs?


Peter North
said

How about we stop spending on stupid stupid stupid stupid things like billion dollar airplanes, and afghanistan and the G20 summit of idiot that did absolutetely nothing for this country....How about we stop spending on the idiotic stupid useless monarchy ....how about we get rid of the senate completely...How about we make bank give back the money they are steeling from us...how about we stop tax havens for the rich...How about getting jobs back from China back home in Canada....It is so simple yet our government makes it so complicated because they are stupid stupid stupid... I can't say it enough STUPID!!!


Richard L. Provencher
said

I agree with many bloggers, that Mr. Page is overly pessimistic about many issues. Also how does he expect the government to lay out all their plans just for him? They have been in power as a Majority for a little over a month.


viral venus
said

If we're talking bloated budgets and uneccessary expenditures can anyone tell me why the Speaker of the house needs an nearly 1 million dollar entertainment budget?!? "Entertainment" it's the freakin Speaker where do they entertain and why?!?!? 1 million available to be wasted by the person in this one position on Entertainment (whatever that entails)....seriously!?!? The government really has to take a hard look at its operations especially any budget labeled ENTERTAINMENT if they want me to believe they will ever save a nickel for the taxpayer. Fools, all of them.


Jake S.
said

Well lets start by firing all watch dogs, they have yet to be correct once in their uneducated predictions. Really if these Conservative government haters would do their jobs properly it would justify having them around but all they do is spend tax payers money impose their political beliefs.This 4 time democratically elected government is doing a fine job so leave them to it. If the watch dogs are bored why don't they track down what happened to the billions of dollars the Liberals scammed away, or better yet find out what Bob Rae and the NDP did with Ontarios money during those dark years.


wstrncehnehdeh in SK
said

It would seem that the Canadian Government has two "loyal" oppositions.


Peter in MB
said

Kevin Page math skills are 1 1= 3 and 8 8=18. he has always been wrong! didn’t Kevin Page say that the cost of the G-20 was 1.6 billion when is was actually 664 million. Kevin Page needs to learn how to use a calculator.


MARG MM
said

Time will tell. Some economists are predicting the Governments goals as realistic. Kevin Page is one man with his own ideas. Jim Flaherty has consulted with some of the countries top economists. Let's wait and see before condeming the Governments plan.


Rick Norlock, Quinte West
said

Let this fine Minister of Finance go about implementing the Government agenda. *****************************************************Sure, just like this "fine Minister of Finance" did for Ontario. The words "fine" and this "Minister" sure do not belong in the same sentence.


Andrew
said

Fire the messenger..an intelligent response considering it was Harper's parliament that created the position and appointed Kevin Page.Slashing jobs is not good management it is an admission that you do not know how to manage a business in the first place. The private sector benefits as much or more from the inabilities of current and past governments to properly manage the resources put in it's trust by the people of Canada. Until the private and public sector realize we can not continue with this fixation on exponential growth as the only measurement of success then we will be stuck with ballooning debt and an ever widening gap between rich and poor. If the government wants to eliminate debt it needs to roll back wages across the board and mandate the elimination of percentage based wage settlements which cause the exponential growth of salaries. It also needs to address how it deals with private sector contracts and manage them as any other business would. So many private companies exploit the ineffective management in the public sector. Don't applaud this as the good ole capitalist way because the money they suck from the gov't is coming out of our pockets.Harper could could also ensure that the entire nation benefits from our rich natural resources and impose appropriate fees for the use of these resources by the private sector.


Len
said

Have to agree with Mac, to a point. We can't jump the gun and criticize until we see results of the planned gov't actions to reduce the deficit. However, Mr. Page does make a point. In order to achieve the desired goals of cutting the deficit simple economics tells me one thing: either raise taxes (including corporate tax), or, cut spending on such frivolities as health care, defense, aboriginals, environment, research and universities, as well as a few others. Then we can live in a surplus situation so we can overspend on jets and unnecessary prisons. We can't have all.


Tom in Calgary
said

Relax my Tory friends. We don't need to smear Mr. Page. It is his opinion based on his research. We won't turn into pumpkins if someone disagrees with us, no matter how well respected they are. Mr Harper gave this man his job for a reason. Don't fear him, don't smear him, he has a different opinion that's all. You will be okay.


BinBarrie
said

Perhaps they can save a bunch of money by getting rid of Kevin Page. He "guesses" wrong the majority of the time and seems to have an axe to grind with the current government. His endless prattling is becoming irksome.


NRM
said

Based on the reports Mr. Page releases, one would think PBO stands for Pessimistic Budget Officer. Also, I don't understand how the PBO (who's job is to scrutinize the federal budget) qualifies as a someone capable of making statements on the mid-term economic outlook of the country. Isn't that what the Bank of Canada's job is? Frankly, I trust Mr. Carney more.


danR
said

Do more with less? This government has one of the most bloated cabinets in history, and the largest of all Western Countries.


sdgreen
said

More baffle gab from a shattered crystal ball gazing economist.


Mark in Wpg
said

The cons commenting here crack me up. A government watchdog dared to publish something that disagrees with Flaherty's version of reality, therefore he must be fired! Were this a Liberal government and Page came out with this report the right would be tripping over each other to call the guy a hero. Stay classy cons.


Guelph Observer
said

I think the smiling picture of Flaherty that accompanies this article is very appropriate. It's like he's saying, 'remember our promises during the election campaign - we lied!'


Rob Calgary
said

Get rid of Page and save some money his dom and glome is a joke shut the hell up so we can get on with life! Tired of these guys say something positive and confidence will come back.


Mac
said

and.... the point of the Watchdog's opinion is what ??Mr Page should be focused on the present practices - and hold the Government accountable in 6 months or a year ... lets see what is done before we pass judgement... Flaherty's cuts to programmes as well as personnel(probably mostly through retirement etc) are a start ..bottom line - managers everywhere HAVE to manage their departments better and more prudently - stop re-inventing everything and just manage ! - you can deleiver with less ! !


Tom
said

The deficits will run deeper and last longer. By then Mr. Harper and Mr. Flaherty will be gone into retirement and live happy ever after with their rich pension. Canadians will be paying down the national debts for many generation.


John from Saskatoon
said

Kevin Page needs to be fired. This guy seems to have an agenda when it comes to this goverment. Why does he think we should take his `guesses`as gosple. That`s all he`s doing. Guessing. He makes all these statements on the deficit and the time it would take to pay it down and he`s been wrong about that. They`re lowering it much faster then projected. Why hasn`t he come out and said how and why he was wrong about that. He`s like a linesman in a hockey game. He throws guys out of the circle so he can get camera time.


Donaldbain
said

When looking at the public sector for cuts the minister should be looking at the levels of management. There are 6 levels of management and several executives above me. I am employed in providing an essential service on the pointy end of the stick. The managers are talking about reducing the actual working bodies to minimum staffing to save their jobs. Once again, Canadians lose.


TEA from Sask
said

Simple...cut government spending more...


Trevor in the Hat
said

Every time Kevin Page comes out with a report it is a negative pessimistic view saying things will be worse than the Conservative government says. Yet, the reality for the past couple years has been better than the Conservative estimates.


Paul ~ Kitchener
said

Let this fine Minister of Finance go about implementing the Government agenda. It is with time and action that will determine if the end result by the Minister is met. All these southsayers pre-judge and cast their personal thoughts & with NO HARD PROOF of what theyu spout. Layoffs are only one, of many areas to be looked at ,& reduced ~ SO LET THE MINISTER, AND THE GOVERNMENT DO THEIR WORK !I do know that the "Winning or Losing" of a game is at the end not at the start. Maybe this is to deep for so many to understand. Go Mr. Minister , & act for Canada.


Ray in Estevan. Sask
said

The Government can save 1 billion a year by getting rid of the CBC. There is no reason for having a State owned TV network.


Sober
said

The proof of the pudding is in the eating. Let's wait and see before we jump to conclusions. The budget is a done deal and speculation and criticism will not change it. These expert critics don't have an electorate to face, so they can say what they want without repercussions. The minister knows that he will face the voters again, so I put more trust in him at this time.


Dave in Calgary
said

The Conservatives are back in the deficit delema from the 1980. They can no longer blame previous governments for the problem and It is all there own.When governments talk about cost reductions this is what it mean.5% reduction in spendingOver half of the budget goes to the provinces and can not be touched. 25 % of the budget goes to fixed costs and debt payments.Therefor the 5% reduction has to come out of the 25% remaining. We are talking about a 20 % reduction in operating costs that the federal government is proposing. It will be an interesting 4 years.


raj
said

Well I guess we dont need our finance minister then. I am so tired of reading ll the downers, has anyone seen the rest of the world.We are so lucky to be here in Canada.I think minister Flaherty knows what he is doing, let him!


It's what it is
said

No surprise here. Does anything this government promises ever truly come to fruition? Nope!


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