KANDAHAR — An organization that keeps track of threats to aid workers in Afghanistan is bracing for a tough, desperate summer and warns of an "escalating stalemate" as it says the Karzai government is losing its grip on northern parts of the country.

A new report from the Afghanistan NGO Safety Office suggested insurgent forces are growing in areas that have previously been assessed as calm.

"We anticipate 2011 will be the most violent year since we have been keeping records," said the organization's quarterly report, which was released over the weekend.

The grim assessment coincided with the deadly attack in Takhar province Saturday that killed six, including two German soldiers, and wounded the NATO forces northern commander, as well as the provincial governor.

Attacks by "armed opposition groups" soared 51 per cent in the first three months of this year when compared with the same period in 2010. The total number of attacks -- 1,102 -- surpassed those conducted in the run up to the 2009 presidential election, which was considered one of the most violent periods in recent memory.

NATO commanders, after conducting major operations in both Kandahar and Helmand provinces last year, said the test of whether they'd beaten the Taliban would come this spring and summer in the annual fighting season.

Even though the summer peak of violence has not arrived, the safety office seems ready to pass judgment, saying the winter lull was "an ordinary operational pause" for the Taliban and "was not reflective of a permanently degraded capacity, as some had suggested at the time."

The report said the influx of military forces and the variety of tactics they use has led to "remarkably consistent growth" in the size and ability of the insurgency.

"The counter-insurgency actually strengthens and exacerbates the insurgency...rather than defeating it," said the summary. "The result appears to be a perpetually escalating stalemate which could sustain itself indefinitely."

NATO officials downplayed the violence overall, pointing out the Taliban have only been able to conduct small-scale suicide assaults.

"The types of attacks they are doing are intended to create a propaganda flash and try to discredit the Afghan government," Lt. Col. John Dorrian, a spokesman for the coalition, told the Associated Press on Sunday.

But the director of an human rights group said the sense of security is "far bleaker" than it has been at anytime since the Taliban were overthrown.

Ajmal Samadi, of Afghanistan Rights Monitor, said the perception among the Afghan people is that insurgents "can strike with impunity anywhere in the country."

He said there may be a military stalemate underway, but many hope for a political breakthrough in the form of a negotiated settlement involving the U.S., the Karzai government and the Taliban.

"To some extent, I believe the Taliban would be ready to deal, despite what they've said publicly about not negotiating," said Samadi. "I think they'll be looking for assurances and incentives, such as not being thrown in jail or hunted down."

The report said non-governmental organizations are not being deliberately targeted by insurgents, but they face an increasing threat from criminal gangs, which have sprung up in lawless patches around the country.

The report warned the likelihood of aid worker being caught accidentally in a roadside bomb attack in southern Afghanistan is high, but the chance of them being deliberately targeted is low. It advises them to stay off the roads, keep a low profile and avoid contact with NATO forces.

The Canadian have tried to convince aid groups that travel in volatile areas such as Panjwaii is safer because of the myriad of road-building projects that been spider-webbed across the scorched farmland.

In the northern and western Afghanistan, the overall threat level is lower, but the report said aid workers face kidnapping threats say illegal checkpoints.

A small portion of the new Canadian training contingent will be based in both regions.

The figures show Helmand -- far and away -- continues to be the most dangerous province with 672 attacks recorded in the first three months of the year -- a 76 per cent increase over last year.