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Fact Check: How much will the F-35s really cost?

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Date: Tuesday Mar. 29, 2011 7:10 AM ET

One of the pry bars that allowed the Opposition parties last week to force the election was the revelation that the cost of the 65 new generation warplanes would apparently be much more than reported.

The Stephen Harper government had said the F-35 warplanes - they will be called CF 35s here - will cost Canada about $9 billion to buy, at about $70 million each and about $250 million to $300 million a year to service over twenty years.

However, Parliamentary Budget Officer Kevin Page calculated that the cost would be more like $30 billion, which includes a service contract over a 30-year span.

And last year, Pentagon officials in the United States disclosed that the F-35 program has overrun its original cost estimates by more than 50 percent. A report from the Government Accountability Office to United States Senate Committee on Armed Services released in March 2010 projected the overall unit cost of an F-35A to be US$112 million in today's money.

Challenged estimates

In Canada, Parliamentary Budget Officer Page, who challenged the Harper government estimates, said that to arrive at his estimate of $29.3 billion, he used a "top-down" model that considered historical trends on the cost of aircraft and key cost drivers.

Page estimates the acquisition cost for the fleet at $9.7 billion and the ongoing service cost for the 65 planes at $19.6 billion.

The government, however, said it stands by its figures..

The difference in numbers prompted accusations from opposition parties that the Conservatives are being dishonest with Canadians about the fighter jet deal that was announced last summer. This in turn was one of the factors that led to the vote of no-confidence

After all three opposition parties indicated that they would not support the Conservative party budget presented on March 22, 2011, Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff moved a motion of non-confidence in the government.

The motion declared that the government is in contempt of Parliament over its withholding of costing information for prison construction and the F-35 purchase. All opposition parties supported the motion which triggered the 2011 federal election

The Liberals say they would cancel the memorandum of understanding and hold a new competitive bid for the plane contract if they win the election. The NDP is also opposed to the purchase, and Bloc Quebecois have said they no longer support the deal.

The Liberals say the Conservatives are wasting millions of dollars on the planes.

But the Conservatives say the F-35 program would benefit nearly 100 Canadian companies and support thousands of technology jobs.

They say that canceling the deal would kill jobs for Canadians and that the procurement is going to bring billions of dollars in economic benefits for the aerospace industry through maintenance and other contracts.

They also argue that that the F-35 is the best plane available for the Canadian Forces and scrapping the deal would not only endanger their lives, but Canadian sovereignty.

Replacing CF-18s

The 65 planes are eventually intended to replace the country's fleet of 138 CF-18 fighters that have seen service all over the world since 1982. There are 79 of the refurbished ones left in service.

The CF 18s cost $4 billion for the 138 aircraft and a $2-billion upgrade has been completed that will extend the life of the aircraft through 2017.

They were chosen in part because they were a twin-engine aircraft, which was considered essential for flying in the high Arctic and over water. The plane also won the competition for a new Canadian Forces fighter because it had what Canada needed and for less cost.

In Canada, the U.S. F-18 is called the CF-18, because it is produced to Canadian specifications.

According to Department of Defence documents, the CF-18 has a searchlight on the left-hand fuselage side to aid Canadian Forces pilots in night-time identification of intercepted aircraft, and a painted-on false canopy on the underside of the fuselage intended to disorient an enemy in air-to-air combat.

Many of the features on the U.S. F-18 version intended to operate off aircraft carriers are included on the Canadian version. The arrestor hook, heavy duty landing gear, and the folding wings are all on the Canadian version. These features proved to be an assistance operating the CF-18s from smaller airfields, especially in the Arctic.

The CF-18 has a top speed of 1,911 kilometres per hour at 40,000 feet and a range of 3,700 kilometres.

The Canadian CF-35 will differ from the American F-35A through the addition of a drag chute and a special type of refueling probe. It is a single-engine aircraft, although it will operate in similar roles to the CF-18.

It has stealth capabilities, which the CF-18 does not. The top speed is 1,773 kilometres an hour at an altitude of 40,000 feet and has a range of 3,700 kilometres.

'Informed partner'

The plane was developed under the Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) program, with nine countries, including Canada, funded development. Canada has been involved in the program from its beginning, investing US$10 million to be an "informed partner" during the evaluation process.

Once Lockheed Martin was selected as the main contractor for the JSF program, Canada elected to become one of the top participants. An additional US$100 million from the Canadian Department of National Defence (DND) over 10 years and another $50 million from Industry Canada were dedicated in 2002, making them an early participant of the JSF program.

The plane is regarded by some military observers as the most advanced combat aircraft ever devised and would be Canada's first stealth fighter-bomber.

However, critics note the F-35 has yet to enter regular service in any air force and its development program is running two years late and 50 per cent over budget. Officials from two European companies have told the Commons Defence Committee that their firms could also produce planes that would meet the strategic needs of the Canadian military.

It was a previous Liberal government that signed a memorandum of understanding with Lockheed Martin to develop the fighter, though it didn't commit Canada to buying the jets.

The Conservatives say their government has invested $168 million in the Joint Strike Fighter program, which has resulted in over $350 million in contracts to Canadian companies. Ten countries are participating in the F-35 development program, under which more than 3,000 of the jets are expected to be built. Canadian companies will have a chance to bid on contracts to help build the entire fleet, not just the 65 aircraft under consideration by the federal government

As of April 2010, the United States intends to buy a total of 2,443 aircraft for an estimated US$323 billion, making it the most expensive defence program in U.S. history.

The United Kingdom has said it will buy 138 and Italy has said it wants 131 F-35s. The Netherlands wants 85 planes, Australia 72 or more F-35As; Denmark is considering the F-35 as a possible replacement for 48 of its aging F-16 fighters.

Israel has said it intends to buy over 100 F-35A fighters at an estimated cost of over $5 billion to replace their F-16s over time.

Singapore could be buying up to 100 F-35s and India, Brazil, Finland, Spain, Taiwan, Japan and the United Arab Emirates are also expressing an interest.

Comments are now closed for this story

Ian in Oshawa
said

Forget the jets, give the money to the men and women on the ground! Better body armour, better weapons, better supplies, more surveillance equipment, better equipment for protection against explosives. Canada doesn't need new fighter jets, it needs a lower body count among the G.I.'s!


Bill
said

A couple a months ago I read in the paper that China believes that since they have approximately 20% of the world's population, they should have 20% of the resources in the Arctic. Scary! We need to upgrade to protect what is ours!


Dayton
said

Keven Page is looking at one side of the picture. What is the total benefit in jobs and contracts for Canada? The jets are a bonus.


gi.JJ
said

JUST BUY THE PLANES ALREADY...Its time Canada become known to the world as a military might...BUY the planes!!!!!


Gerald
said

Listen , open up the gates to all of our maximum security prisons , give the murderers and rapists automatic weapons and then I think that anyone here who believes in God will be praying big time for one or more of those jets to show up and save their asses ! We need the best of the best for the men and women who are out there trying to make this world a better place .


muskokachick
said

the reality is, our jets are old and outdated. Canada's a vast country with a bounty of natural resources, many of which are in the far north. It's only a matter of time before we're going to have to protect them. It's ridiculous and irresponsible to expect the Americans to protect our borders for us. We live in a hostile world and it's time Canadians got their heads out of the sand and realized how vulnerable our borders truely are, and how inadequetly we're able to defend them with our current equipment.


Howard in Brampton
said

I just can't help myself - will this issue become like the Sea King helicopter replacement issue? By the time it becomes resolved, our "Honorable Members" will have wasted many, many millions of tax payer's dollars, and in the end wind up with a mediocre result, especially if Canadians have to again instruct the Conservatives that the collective trust in Harper and his unbending adherence to his political ideologies, good or bad, warrant only another minority government. I don't think they got the message the last 2 elections.


Amanda
said

Glad to see so many people in support of purchasing the F-35 fighter jets. The liberals don't seem to support our troops at all and that disgusts me. Harper has not always made the right decisons, no politician does, but he has supported our Military more than anyone in the last few years and for that I am thankful, he does what is necessary to keep my husband safe and my son gets to grow up with his daddy. Thanks Harper!


Frank in NS
said

Being an Air Force veteran myself I can tell you that good equipment is needed to save lives and do the job. The Liberals starved us to death during and post the Hellyer era. Liberals should be forced to fly the ancient F-18 and risk their lives like are brave men have to now. Buy the F-35 regardless if the price is $19M or $30M. We cannot afford not to.


Kevin in Edson Alberta
said

So, after the Chretien government picked this aircraft as the winner over a decade ago effectively killing any other development of an alternative in the U.S. The current Liberals want to cancel this purchase. The fee is about a billion dollars to cancel on top of the 300 million we've already sunk into this aircraft. The only other plane even close in capabilities is a Russian MiG. The Europeans have a lemon with their Eurofighter, and it's vastly more expensive so that's it. We get this aircraft, or shut down the airforce. I'd like to see how much money we have sunk into the current F18 fleet over it's life, I suspect the number would "shock" Canadians. Aircraft are expensive to operate.This smacks of Chretiens political decision cancelling the 130 helicopters for search and rescue and the navy, for a cancellation fee of 500 million, only to buy 28 later "rebadged" a few years later, but in reality the exact same helicopter at more than twice the cost per unit. These are the red and yellow Cormorants you see on the news. They(Liberals) vote to put our forces into theater like Bosnia, Afghanistan and they supported the Libya mission, but don't want our boys and girls to have decent equipment, that's just shameful politics. Almost as bad as sending our forces into Afghanistan with Green camo. I'm glad this is a short campaign, I do believe my blood pressure is spiking already...


David
said

For those demanding the "EXACT COST", should you not provide the cost if the jet isn't ordered? Start with the job loss in Quebec then consider the cost if we don't have modern new jet fighters; provide these costs then you may have the right to demand using a differant opinion of how much they may cost; this is an estimate only because the sky could fall right, or just stop listening to people without direction and understanding.


JPC in Regina
said

We NEED new planes - you cannot expect our air force people to keep flying the existing planes forever...


Louis-Paul in Markham
said

let's see, the last time the Liberals promised to cancel something and did... It proved a disaster. The EH101 could have saved several lives and avoided putting our armed force's personnel in danger by using helicopter that were 20 years past their due date.THEN! the last time hte Conservatives canceled an aircraft, it proved disastrous as our best in the world aircraft design industry ended up dying and moving tot he US. The Arrow may or may not have been as good as promised but it was the best in the world then.Under no circumstances should we cancel the CF-35. Not only do we need to upgrade our current fleet, we need to make sure our representatives (read: armed forces) have the very best technology we can get.Anything else is treason.


Neil from Waterloo
said

As I understand it, every country considering this plane has backed off to reevaluate the purchase except for two; Isreal (who will get their planes for free as part of a US aid package) and Canada. There is absolutely no way Canada could take delivery before 2017 so why is the government in such a hurry to sign a deal? On top of this, the American "TEA (taxed enough already) Party" has just learned that the second largest air-force in the world is owned by the US Navy. So there will be a reevaluation of this purchase in the US and, most likey, more cuts. This could trigger per-plane price reductions by the manufacturer. Considering Canada's huge deficit and debt, the fiscally conservative thing to do would be to wait-and-see.


Zircon
said

I suspect that most people who objectively reflect on this issue willarrive at the conclusion that the CF-18 is in need of replacement.That said, every jet interceptor requirement this country has had since post WWII, has included the need for dual engines. Why? The vast expanses of the north demand such redundancy for both pilot and aircraft safety. CF-100. CF-105 (cancelled). CF-101. CF-18.And now the (C)F-35 has....how many engines? One.I realize there are far more that this singular requirement to consider in interceptor selection. But when we apparently sign on to an over-budget, non-typical (in terms of precedent) design, via closed-door/bakcroom deals between Ottawa and Washington, we SHOULD ask questions and demand answers!


Paul
said

Who is out of touch. WHat can 65 planes do except cost taxpayers billions of dollars. We send a few planes to warzones to do our part do we need a tactical fighter-bomber. Maybe buying 150 comparable planes for the same price makes more sense which would increase our military. We haven't seen this F35 in action. Just because other people follows the US why should we. Do we really need stealth for what we do? Lets get some nice helicopters and a new sub instead of buying used crap.


Ian Ottawa
said

As a former member of the military it is sadly comical listening to those who have no idea what they are talking about. The planes are required and believe me, if you are a pilot you need the best plane for the job at the time. I agree 65 planes at any price is expensive but Canada has to think over a long period of time because so little of the GDP is spent towards the military, (The last line of defines I might add)It is the easiest for a Government , no matter what party, to cut their budget without a second thought because it has no union or real supporters that will stand up to budget cuts.We have the smallest military compared to places like the UK, France and Australia. Why? Because there are to many Care Bears in Canada. Water will be more important than oil in the future, are we expected to protect it or watch it be taken because we didn't want to pay for a military?Buy the planes and build up the military. As a government you might need one to protect yourselves if you pay attention to the news.


Gord. Robson, Nova Scotia
said

We need the F-35's and the longer we talk about this the more they will cost !..Page is not even on the right Page !


Gord. Robson, Nova Scotia
said

We need the f35's , the longer we put this off the more they will cost. There is nothing out there that is comparable at this time. .Page is not even on the right page !


Jeremy in Thunder Bay
said

The majority of Canadians really don't care how much they cost. We need them for our airmen and air-woman's lives depend on this. And don't forget about the countless lives they will defend. The world will be a different place in the future and we will need them to be able to defend ourselves. We can't always rely on the US.


Dan
said

Lets not forget with our NATO allies also buying the F-35, it makes it easier to integrate our planes with allies in times of theatre operations. I have no problem with the Conservatives spending money on our military to protect Canada and defend our interests. If our troops need the best, they should get the best...period !


Matt
said

It should be noted, EVERY major country in the world is intent on updating their air force with these planes. But like usual, Canada is looking total Mickey Mouse. US is buying 2100, for hope sakes people the arabs are buying them. WAKE UP! This current generation of canadians are single minded spoiled brats. Freedom is not free. Id rather take the planes then see my grandchildren defenseless, BUT HEY! More money into health care to take care of smokers and fat people with no jobs! Socialist's.


Gregg Lowden
said

Whine, whine - Canada needs a military. We require a fighter that allows us to fully integrate with our allies, something the CF-18's no longer allow. We are a sovereign nation. Whilst the Liberals ran the show and bled our military dry did we see increases to hospitals, education, homeless or the middle/low income? NO - we saw off loading of these services to the province who in turn offloaded to the municipalities. Other "socialist" countries spend more of their GDP on defense and we need to step-up to the plate and not rely on our neighbours for everything.


Todd
said

I am in the Canadian Forces and these new aircraft are in desperate need. We cannot keep peace keeping with aircraft that are over 30 years old. It is just a fact, technology is advancing and if we still want to play a leading role in the world these aircraft will be needed to peacekeep and for our security as well.


Mark - Fort Erie ON
said

The government has under estimated, the coalition has over estimated. That's politics. However, we know what happens when the Libs buy stuff. They will cancel the deal, then pay the penalty, then dither. Canadian servicemen will die in old jets, and eventually then they will buy the F 35 at a more expensive price tag. Been there - done that.


Adrian
said

Look, the CF-18's are almost 30 years old. They are approaching the end of their life expectancy.Canada needs modern, reliable aircraft, and we need to have the same equipment as our US neighbours. We have already been caught with our pants down in Bosnia when the older avionics then used in the CF18's were no longer compatible with the USAF, and the Americans had to bail us out.Does anyone here remember the CF101 and the CF104 Widowmaker?Buy the darned planes. Pro Patria.


JJaycee
said

This is an amazing report! Finally some of the details become available.Cost seems to be a running Target-probably changing monthly depending on the cost of materials.Lots of other countries are also looking to buy the F-35. We could get some construction jobs out of it as well as Maintainence. Bombardier builds a variety of planes-maybe them.Sounds the the Helicopter thing all over again.


Steve from Oshawa
said

These planes are good enough for all of our allies but they aren't good enough for Canada?Liberals are so out of touch it's disgusting.


scott nova scotia
said

hospital emergency rooms shutting down all over the country, people losing their jobs and then the government wants to waste money on planes. Harper has lost touch with what Canadians need and want. He is more worried how we look on the world stage.


CommonSense
said

Democracy = "The Will of the People" as defined....or the majority 50 1. The majority of canadians who voted last election voted against Harper. If the opposition consists of the MAJORITY of the electrate, why is it "illigitament" for the opposition to for a "coilition"? And why is it wrong (or illigitement) for the majority of people to work together and get results. Especially when the leading party REFUSES to deal with THE WILL OF THE PEOPLE. As much as I think Laytons policies are bunk and would bankrupt our country, you have to hand it to him....he makes sense when he said he want to work "Together" with the other parties to get results for the people. Working together..wow...what a concept. But i suppose its more important to be party faithful than to do whats right for Canadians.Lets think about that!


Paul
said

For starters the governments costs are over a 20 year period. Kevin Page's numbers are over a thirty year period. Like trying to compare apples and tanks. Real number is probably somewhere in the middle, regardless, we still need planes and even if we go with another plane it is going to cost taxpayers billions and the cheaper plane will just have to be replaced sooner. This is about politics and only politics.


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