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Will China's economy hop forward in Year of Rabbit?

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao waves upon his arrival at Chaklala airbase in Rawalpindi, Pakistan on Friday, Dec. 17, 2010. (AP Photo) Performers do the lion dance at Hillcrest Mall in Richmond Hill, Ont. on Saturday, Feb. 5, 2011.
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao waves upon his arrival at Chaklala airbase in Rawalpindi, Pakistan on Friday, Dec. 17, 2010. (AP Photo)

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Without a successful populist socioeconomic program to share a greater amount of its wealth with its citizens, measures to control the erosive forces of inflation, and genuine movement toward basic human rights and fundamental freedoms, China maintains its steady course to "celebrate" the Year of the Dead Duck. Never be fooled: all is not splendid and sound at "International Cheap Widget Manufacturers Incorporated."

Prof. Pye Chartt

Will China's economy hop forward in Year of Rabbit?

talking about
Will China's economy hop forward in Year of Rabbit?

Date: Sunday Feb. 6, 2011 6:43 AM ET

The Chinese economy will be put on a diet in the Year of the Rabbit, as leaders in Beijing seek to trim inflation and curb an overheated real estate market in the months ahead.

In the days before the Chinese New Year, Premier Wen Jiabao announced that the government would put an increased focus on the "welfare of the people," taking steps to improve prosperity in the coming year.

Driving down prices and tempering the Chinese real estate market are two steps the government intends to take to help its people "live and work in peace and contentment, be free from anxiety, and live with greater happiness and dignity," Wen said in remarks reported by the state-run Xinhua News Agency.

While the Chinese government may believe that dangling these carrots to the public will win their support, experts say Beijing will have a much harder time actually bringing price increases and inflation under control.

Sameer Mathur, an assistant professor at McGill University's Desautels Faculty of Management, said the Chinese government is particularly concerned about the political impact of rising prices in the economy.

Inflation hit a two-year high in November, as part of longer trend that Mathur said has helped push prices up 10 to 15 per cent across the board in China, including for food.

China's National Bureau of Statistics recently reported that food prices "increased sharply" in 2010, with consumers paying 7.2 per cent more for their groceries in December than they did a year before. And that was twice the rate of increase in the general Consumer Price Index over the same time period.

In a telephone interview with CTV.ca, Mathur said when Chinese citizens realize their grocery bills are going to keep rising, "that's going to be when they are going to be really upset."

Loren Brandt, a professor in the department of economics at the University of Toronto, said the problem with bringing food prices under control is that they are affected by many factors inside and outside of China.

If Beijing decides to restrict food prices, Brandt said it is a decision that will inevitably "filter down all the way down to the farmer," whereby food producers would be forced to respond to such changes.

Under such a scenario, farmers could choose to sell their products outside of China for a higher yield, or they could limit production in an attempt to drive up prices in a country with 1.3 billion mouths to feed.

Whatever administrative measure might be taken to limit food prices, it will "impact domestic supply and cause more problems," Brandt said in a recent telephone interview from Toronto.

Housing prices have also become a problem in the Chinese economy, with its soaring real estate market encouraging foreign and domestic investors to put their money into bricks and mortar opportunities in China.

Mathur said that "many smart investors" took advantage of opportunities to borrow money at cheap rates to make speculative investments in the Chinese real estate market during the worldwide recession.

And that has pushed development through the roof: The National Bureau of Statistics says that the total investment in the Chinese real estate market in 2010 was 33.2 per cent higher than the year before.

In some cases, Mathur said investors "have literally built apartment buildings and have kept them empty," as they wait for the right moment to put them on the market.

In response, China has raised its interest rates and made it harder for banks to lend money to investors in attempt to cool down the market. But Brandt said that is just not enough to keep investors from putting their money into Chinese real estate.

The domestic real estate market is attractive to Chinese investors because it seems safer than putting their money into volatile stocks.

Foreign investors, on the other hand, are drawn to investing in China because it is widely believed that the Chinese currency is undervalued and will eventually have to appreciate.

Brandt says that means that their investment today could be worth more tomorrow, on top of whatever return they can generate in the hot real estate market.

Ultimately, China is "walking a tightrope," Brandt said, in which the country wants to maintain growth while keeping inflation and prices under control.

While some believe the Year of the Rabbit to be lucky in character, Yunxiang Gao, an assistant professor of history at Ryerson University, said it is not especially so.

Gao said that historically, the Year of the Dragon is considered more favourable than its rabbit counterpart, though to be born under the bunny is much better than being born in the Year of the Lamb.

If a more neutral year lies ahead for the Chinese economy, it would fit the tightrope analogy -- whereby Beijing must work hard to maintain its balance amid the dynamic pressures on the world's second-largest economy.

With files from The Associated Press

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Tom Cubbins
said

Rising prices in China are normal for an economy that is growing as fast as the Chinese economy has grown recently. As more resources are demanded it is only natural that higher asked for in the markets.

The Chinese authorities want to slow the rate of inflation so not to create 'inflation dynamic' where prices are raised simply to keep pace with the expectation of high prices in the future!

The rest of world should just learn to compete with the new reality. Yes, the Chinese currency is undervalued. And, no, they will not automatically lower it to satisfy the rest of world.

It's better for the rest of the world to trim their budgets, increase their skills, so that we all cooperate together for a better mutual world.



RGBrook
said

@ John: Your comment is bang on. You've been chastised by a master of foolery it seems, and a short while ago I too spoke of cheap Chinese products being sold at Walmart in Canada and was childishly berated by the same master for claiming that he and his "retail expert" wife shopped at Walmart in a "How dare you accuse well-to-does" of not seeking a good buy. In all honesty, he never bothered to realize that I was speaking of cheap meaning "quality" as opposed to cheap meaning "cost". This forum encourages comments on a story, and an opportunity for contributors to speak like adults, and to educate/inform others of their opinions. Some use it to belittle others, and force their inferiority complexes on those who put their beliefs in some sort of self-imposed jeopardy. Ignore them, your input is appreciated by those of us who wear "big-boy pants".


Sarah Jane Marka
said

Maybe they can invite those North Korean cheerleaders who make communist colors in big stadiums to come and parade the fakery of communist China to the thrill of its horned up dictators basking in the glory of their totalitarian state BS.


China's Ponzi Scheme
said

The BIGGEST con ever perpetuated on the world is the Chinese economy. There is NO 10% growth in that market. Most the of money goes towards proping up failing banks who donate, for lack of a better word, funds to failing businesses. 30,000 factories shut down in the past 2 months (officially) and that is estimated to be a small fraction of businesses that shuttered closed when you consider the unofficial closures. Another 7,000 factories relocated to Mexico. When you then factor in the currency manipulation, and highrise developments which remain empty to a tune of 70,000 units in one small area alone, and consider the MIT report that states that the countries energy consumption does not correlate with the alleged 10% growth then something is wrong in this picture. This is going to make the mortgage crises in the USA look like small potatoes. China, in my opinion, is just one massive ponzi scheme.


Prof. Pye Chartt
said

@ John: Quite a "critical" comment, John, that purports a vastly superior perspective and understanding held by its author; yet, you didn't bother to enlighten us, at all. Care to? Thanks. (Criticizing the opinions of others without the guts to table your own is, well, at tad cheap, hollow, and pointless. Sorry.)


KJ in Kingston Ontario
said

One senses the enormous cultural divide -- can you imagine Harper or Obama saying he has a plan for the nation to "live and work in peace and contentment, be free from anxiety"....?


Davis
said

What are they celebrating? The fact that even their "Year of the Rabbit" "Made in Communist China" is junk and won't last the year and end up in a landfill like the rest of the crap they're flooding the world with. B.S. baffles brains..eh communist China?


Sarge
said

According to the suicide statistics at communist China's "Foxconn Industries" it should be year of the Fox flinging itself from several stories of a high building "Made in China" to escape a life ruled from sleeping, working, socializing kept within the walls of the factory 7/24ths until you die naturally or insanity makes you commit the ultimate act against yourself. Yes what a success they've got going on over there "Happy Pretentious New Year" communist China!


Dareia
said

Well of course it will because rabbit or rat all they have to do is look on the ink stamp on the bottom of their "economic and job boom" and see clearly printed "Made in America and at the expense of the entire World". Bankruptcy about sums it up. communist "Made in China" is dancing on thin ice. Enjoy the party China..while it lasts just like the Titanic passengers did for 1 thrilling yet doomsday weekend in April of 1912. Hope your rabbits can swim!


Doug ^^^ BC
said

There is little I like about the way people have to live in China.It strikes me as extraordinary that they are to poor to offer better care for the people or to consider joining the world in it's war against pollution.Yet they can still afford a huge military build up and a space program.How many coal fired plants could they shut down for the price of a warship or a shot at the moon? That said,and with reservations about how they prioritize things,I wonder if any government or any wesern democracy could rise to the huge challenges of China.So many people,and so few resources of their own.Just dealing with poverty is a challenge everywhere.Imagine trying to do that in China.The west has yet to find a way to afford cleaner energy.Do we really think it's easier in China?It comes with huge costs,at a time when no one has any money.Just debt. China does need better human rights.As do the people of Egypt.What I fear,is that people think democracy and human rights will be the key to solving social problems like poverty,pollution,or crime and justice.Those expectations may be unrealistic in the extreme.Issues like poverty and hunger are only cured by producing more food at prices people can afford to pay.There is no store house of "free food". People need freedoms,and the right to live with some dignity.But,"power to the people" is not a cure all.When a people live on a parcel of land not capable of supporting the lifestyles they are looking for,"people power" often means chaos or revolution.If a government has to tell it's people, "we just don't have all the things you want","people power" can get very nasty.Even in a democracy with human rights.


John
said

It's funny how articles about China always prompt unqualified discourse about human rights and tired old recantations about cheap products (that they buy anyway) from envious backbench commentators who have never been to China. Everyone needs to get updated about progress in Asia without reverting to xenophobic attitudes of the past.


Paul ~ Kitchener
said

"Walking a Tight Rope" ~ INDEED !With inflation climbing, faster than a mokey up a tree, the "People" can only take so much, (like Canadians being taxed to the final limit). The leaders of this repressive, un-democratic, regime know they could have a "People's Revolt" on their hands if they don't get financial interests in check, and fast. Unfortunately the Western economy is tied to the People's Republic of China, & if they fail we get kicked in the groin. The more education the youth of China get , (look at the Chinese enrollment in our Universities) , the stonger voice they will have in their homeland. This isn't the year of the "Rabbit" , its the "Year of Politics" ~ worldwide ~ (Watch the changes in Canada federaly & provincialy). "CHANGE is in the AIR", all around the globe but more so economicaly challenged CHINA. Let it rip, and again CANADA can lead the world in good economics ~ (if we give Mr. Harper a Majority come Spring) !


James
said

Chinese leaders should be ashamed of their leadership and record of evil human rights violations. This is a very backward repressive nation and no amount of economic prosperity is going to change that. These people need a heart transplant.


Sid
said

China's economy will probably hop forward in Year of Rabbit, while Canada's economy goes down the hole.


Prof. Pye Chartt
said

Without a successful populist socioeconomic program to share a greater amount of its wealth with its citizens, measures to control the erosive forces of inflation, and genuine movement toward basic human rights and fundamental freedoms, China maintains its steady course to "celebrate" the Year of the Dead Duck. Never be fooled: all is not splendid and sound at "International Cheap Widget Manufacturers Incorporated."


Diane
said

Year of the rabbit? This is no less insane than the occultic observance of horoscopes and just as fruitless. In this day and age it's amazing to think a people follow such empty nefarious beliefs.


China left wanting
said

This is all fine and well yet the leaders of China have not yet changed the horrific ways in which they treat prisoners including the live harvesting of organs and selling them leaving the prisoner donor to die a horrible death. How does a culture that claims to be on the economic cusp of global prosperity tolerate leaders who do this? That is not progress. Social progress much advance with economic progress to be considered positive. The statements leave me with a sense of hypocrisy on the part of China's leaders.


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