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Merrill Lynch released a warning that Canada could be headed for a housing and mortgage meltdown similar to the one that has devastated the U.S. economy, on Wednesday, Sept. 24, 2008. (AP / Amy Sancetta) Merrill Lynch released a warning that Canada could be headed for a housing and mortgage meltdown similar to the one that has devastated the U.S. economy, on Wednesday, Sept. 24, 2008. (AP / Amy Sancetta) Harper

U.S.-style meltdown won't happen here: Harper

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CTV News Video

CTV News: Janet Dirks on the Merrill Lynch report
It seems that the economic picture for Canadians is a gloomy one, as a new report from Merrill Lynch economists predicts tough times for the Canadian mortgage market.
CTV National News: Don Drummond, sr. vice president and chief economist, TD Bank
According to TD Bank Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Don Drummond, Canada is not at risk of the sort of housing market meltdown that is present in the U.S.
Mike Duffy Live: Financial experts on the possibility
A report from Merill Lynch Canada says that it is only a matter of time before Canada follows the U.S. into a mortgage meltdown.
CTV Calgary: Lane Fraser reports on predictions that Calgary's economy is headed for a meltdown
Merrill Lynch Canada says we are not immune to a market meltdown because many homeowners are overextended.
CTV Newsnet: BNN's Michael Hainsworth explains the what Merrill Lynch based the judgment on
A new report from economists at Merrill Lynch is suggesting that Canadian households are saving less and overextending themselves 'as much as the U.S. or U.K. ever did.'
CTV Newsnet: Conservative Leader Stephen Harper takes questions about a the possibility of a Canadian mortgage meltdown
Conservative Leader Stephen Harper takes questions about a the possibility of a Canadian mortgage meltdown and the role the federal government should play in social policy during a campaign stop in Vancouver on Wednesday.
CTV Newsnet: Conservative Leader Stephen Harper takes questions about the state of the Canadian economy in the wake of the billion-dollar bailout in the U.S.
Conservative Leader Stephen Harper takes questions about the state of the Canadian economy in the wake of the billion-dollar bailout in the U.S. during a campaign stop in Vancouver on Wednesday.
CTV Newsnet: Rosemary Thompson explains how Harper is campaigning how the Tories are the best political party to guide Canada through the rough economic times which are predicted
A discussion about how Harper is framing the Tories as the best political party to guide Canada through the rough economic times which are predicted.

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Date: Wed. Sep. 24 2008 8:07 PM ET

Conservative Leader Stephen Harper is dismissing dire predictions of a U.S. style financial meltdown here in Canada.

In response to the Merrill Lynch report that suggests the housing market here is just as stressed as its U.S. counterpart, Harper said Canada's economy is still one of the most robust among industrialized, Western nations.

Despite a slowing Canadian economy, Harper said a collapse like the one occurring in the U.S. simply won't happen.

"We are taking steps to show Canadians and show international investors that this is a strong place to do business, and a well-run country with strong balance sheets of governments, households and financial institutions,' Harper said.

Earlier this week, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty told CTV's Question Period that Canadians can "rest assured our banks are solid."

He said the banking crisis in the U.S. is a concern for the global economy, but Canada has taken steps to make protect its financial sector.

Dire report

Economists at Merrill Lynch -- one of the world's most respected financial firms -- said in the report that Canadian households have "been running a larger financial deficit than households in either the U.S. or the U.K."

"After forty years of net saving, Canadian households moved into sustained deficit in 2002," David Wolf and Carolyn Kwan wrote in a report issued by Merrill Lynch's Canadian division.

The firm's data implies that the Canadian household sector is now overextending itself "as much as the U.S. or U.K. ever did."

Canadians' household net borrowing was 6.3 per cent of disposable income in 2007. That's more debt than households in Britain and close to the peak of the U.S. shortfall, just before the subprime mortgage crisis erupted in 2005.

The Merrill Lynch report says the market view that Canada's housing and credit markets are not going to "crack" like they have in the U.S. may be wrong.

"We fear, however, that it may simply be a matter of time. The clear 'tipping point' in the U.S. was the emergence of falling house prices in the summer of 2006, kicking off the vicious circles that have brought the financial system and the wider economy to the brink," the report said.

"We're just now starting to see house prices fall in Canada, and sharp rises in unsold home inventories increasingly imply that this will not be a transitory phenomenon."

Economist Don Drummond of TD Bank told CTV's Mike Duffy Live on Wednesday that Canada isn't destined to follow the U.S. into a housing meltdown.

"There are just so many things that are different. First of all we have hardly any sub-prime mortgages in Canada," he said. "By law, if you don't have a large down payment on a home in Canada, then half that mortgage has to be insured, so we don't have the financial underpinnings."

Drummond says he expects to see housing prices across the country "flatten out" over a period of time.

"We will see some housing price declines, concentrated in the west," said Drummond. "These aren't going to be the 50% price rollbacks on houses that we've experienced in Calgary and Florida we just did not have the ... lack of discipline in the mortgage that got them into that problem."

Comments are now closed for this story

Graham
said

What is the difference between a sub-prime mortgage lender and Osama Bin Laden?
ANSWER: The sub-prime mortgage lender wears a suit.



Igor ON
said

It's quite simple:

SPEND LESS THAN YOU MAKE!
SPEND LESS THAN YOU MAKE!
SPEND LESS THAN YOU MAKE!
SPEND LESS THAN YOU MAKE!
SPEND LESS THAN YOU MAKE!
SPEND LESS THAN YOU MAKE!
SPEND LESS THAN YOU MAKE!
SPEND LESS THAN YOU MAKE!
SPEND LESS THAN YOU MAKE!


Bill
said

Of course you realize that this is the same Merrill Lynch that went bust last week. Canada as well as every other country in the world is in for a bit of a rough ride, but this country is certainly in a better financial position to ride out the storm than most other countries.


Russell Welland
said

The sky is falling the sky is falling the sky is falling...

As for everyone 'saving' and waiting for housing prices in Toronto to drop better not hold their breath. Go buy a nice piece of land up in Vaughn, cause even with a recession it's all you're going to be able to afford.

Meanwhile there is a real crisis in Canada - our transportation situation! Sad excuses for public transit in all our major cities combined with a commuter society and rising gas prices = infrastructure meltdown.


Krystal Ball
said

Here's a prediction:

If people are smart, they'll spend money NOW to fix up their home or the ones they're about to buy. I'll bet my bottom dollar that it's going to cost plenty more to do it in a year from now, for sure.





David #1
said

I get the feeling that it's going to be a very "cheap" Christmas this year. The living on credit card lifestyle is about to go bust! Thanks "Made in China".


Mike D
said

Wow financial advice from Merrill Lynch, kind of like getting law and order lessons from Al Capone.


jeff
said

Say goodbye to the era of the PC's....keep telling lies and people will clue in.


Dave from Toronto
said

I wouldn't take Harper's word on anything! He's flip-flopped on income trusts, cut Liberal tax cuts only to reintsate them later.
Mr. Harper...can we have that promise in writing?


Home Owner
said

Great news from Harper. He has the promise of my vote.....as soon as I have a sworn & notorized document that my mortgage will be personally guarenreed by him.
(chuckles)
And the neo-CONS are trashing Layton.
HAAHAAHAHAHAAAA
This is the laugh I needed today.

A_B_C


Prof. Pye Chartt
said

Knowing full-well that the U.S. financial crisis is a direct result of reckless, government-backed mortgage lending to greedy individuals (borrowers), how silly and foolish it is for some people to debate the very merits of Capitalism here.

Talk about throwing the baby out with the bath water.

The collapse of American mortgage banking and the overall real estate market is rooted in the government's legislative and statutory desire to channel the flow of mortgages to as many people as possible (and back them up), while maintaining no control of those institutions who write and package the loans.

This isn't Capitalism, people; it's Capitalism with a fork stuck in its side...and it doesn't work.

Markets work best when they're free, and when the government messes with natural economic checks and balances that inherently exist, things go for a damaging spin...and that's what we're witnessing now.

The answer isn't Socialism, folks. Capitalism is the reason you can sit in a safe, comfortable space, behind your electronic computing device, and tap out an anti-capitalist rant; instead of sitting on the cold floor of a cave and scratching something onto the wall with a sharp rock and stained stick.


Steve
said

The "experts" have predicted at least ten of the last three recessions.


John
said

I am truely sorry, for making a 3rd comment. For those ill informed George Bush will be the President of the United States until January 2009, After I believe January 20th 2009 there will be a NEW US President, it doesnt matter that you think Stephen Harper loves George Bush because either John McCain or Barac Obama will be the President and god help us if it is Obama, you think there is a global economic crisis now just wait till a Democrate more liberal than Jack Laton is running the United States. That would truely cause a new great depression.


Mike
said

Don Drummond (TD Bank Financial Group) didn't seem to agree with Merrill Lynch at all when he was interviewed on CTV earlier today. Among other things, the regulations here prevent such debacles as what is happening in the U.S. Mortgages are insured, owners can't just walk away from their house if they can't pay, etc.. etc... I think the interview can be viewed from the web site (plus it's probably running a couple of times an hour on Newsnet.)


John
said

My second comment on this issue, I find it truely amazing that the true socialists are hoping for a totaly colapse of our economy, because if the average Joe, looses his house the economy will get worse. Here are simple facts, just because you went to school does not intitle you to a good job, house, and car. Dont sell your house for less than it is worth YOU DONT HAVE TO MOVE. Clean up any bad unsecured debt. ie personal loans credit cards ect with a secured line of credit. LOCK IN NOW to a minimum 5, 7 or if your bank offers 10 year term NO FINANCIAL STORM LASTS THAT LONG. Finally for you great liberal and ndp voters natural resources. WE have more than anyone. Our entire economy is based on, mining, fosil fuels, lumber, paper, food ect. THE ONLY THING THAT CAN KILL THAT IS THE CARBON TAX enough said on this 2 idiots from ML and those who love socialism.


Edwin
said

The only reason for this Merrill Lynch "report" is to precipitate a financial panic, in order for the "Banksters" to gain unfettered access to the Canadian Treasury.

The Wall Street Pirates are presently engaged in bringing Fascism to America and they would just love to see a repeat performance in Canada.


Steve
said

Was it not Merrill Lynch who guarenteed some big investors not to lose thier investments, at the expense of thier Ma n Pa investors? (Last month)
It makes me wonder what crap they are trying to pull. Of course we do have some over extended. We do have a housing market that is overpriced in some areas, but most borrowers just got themselves into a home. Where some were buying and selling, and may get caught holding the quick loss on thier previously quick money. Tough on them, they were the ones who drove the price up. Just like the stock market correction was caused by wheeler n dealers, and Ma n Pa mutual holders will pay that that loss. I still think Mutuals should not be allowed for RRSP's ... how is it a retirement savings plan, when you loose money on it? I just got in and took a nice loss, it will take years to make it back... I am so not impressed .. I would do better if I had left it in my .03% bank account (yes point oh three %)


Maps Onburt
said

ML is missing one key fact. In the US the speculators were having 2-3 houses and were forced to sell when they could no longer refinance/carry them. We don't have that problem in Canada as most people don't own 2-3 homes (our mortgage interest isn't deductable). If someone's personal residence got to the point where it was underwater, they wouldn't necessarily jump out and sell as it would mean personal bankruptcy. Most people would stay put (i.e. not put their house on the market) and continue making payments. I don't think this kind of a meltdown will happen here - but that's not to say I don't think housing prices aren't in for a large correction.


MikeD
said

Sadly, many people are still in denial about personal finances and the Canadian economy. It is not too late to minimize the impact on you and your family.

Stop spending recklessly, sell off real estate "investments" and gas guzzlers, pay off high interest debt NOW, and put a little aside for a rainy day.

Do it NOW!!!


DM, Richmond.
said

The MLS listings for my six block area in Richmond/Brighouse have over 500 condos for sale. Now I've been looking regularly for the last two years and there have been on average about 100. So the listings have skyrocketed and demand has fallen since they rarely seem to get delisted anymore. And then what about all these new buildings being built in the same area?

The prices haven't fallen yet, but my gosh there are a lot of places to choose from now.

And isn't that what initiated the US market crash, oversupply?


Shane Prpich
said

Stephen Harper sounds exactly like former Nortel CEO John Roth! When the Telecom sector was falling apart, John Roth told shareholders, employees and the public that everything was fine at Nortel and the future looked bright forever. Those were complete and utter lies and Harper is following suit. Wake up my fellow Canadians you have been sleeping with Conservatives lies for far too long!


quion97
said

The Toronto star reported a few week ago, that 72% of Canadian credit card paid the full balance at the end of each month vs the US where only 44% pay the full balance. Plus the fact that 60% of Canadian home owners have no mortgage. NO interest deductibility and 40 years motrgage with 100% financing. The guy from M/L is smoking weed.


Paul out West
said

All through this election process Harper says the same it can't happen here. Deny, deny, deny. Harper and Flaherty must be living in a bubble world. To pretend nothing is happening while our economy is headed towards trouble is not strong leadership. At best it is just plain dishonest.


Tom
said

Let me see now wasn't Merrill Lynch just in the papers a few days ago. Oh yeah their the one's who sold themselves off to avoid declaring bankruptcy. If they're such experts why didn't they do something to get their own house in order before the big crash of '08


Ian- AB
said

I love how people think that we as a country completely tied into the states will not be affected by a complete meltdown down there. Alberta better be careful as well. People won't want your oil if they have no jobs. Price drops when demand is low. But listen to Mr. Harper maybe he's right.. or maybe the folks from Merryl Lynch are right. But I know this for sure; whenever the US farts we smell. Get the picture.


Prof. Pye Chartt
said

It's quite cute that CTV prefaced it's delivery of this biblical condemnation with a hollow reference to Merrill Lynch as "one of the world's most respected financial firms."

Really? (Didn't they have to write down around $40B worth of toxic debt this past year, and were just sold?) Anyway, I seem to recall Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns being referred to the same way.

Spare me the headline-grabbing doom and gloom. I'll stick to my own instincts, until somebody can come up with something that takes into account the fundamental differences in our banking/mortgage industry and real estate markets.


Jess D
said

While bank lending might become a little constrained due to the lack of liquidity in the global banking system and short of a full scale global depression, I can't see how the same sort of melt down could happen to the housing market in Canada. There are few if any subprime borrowers and furthermore Canadian house prices (including even Vancouver's) are still extremely competitive when compared to prices in the US and other western countries, like the UK, Spain and Australia.


John
said

I said at the begin of this campaign that the only reason we were going to the polls early is because the economy was going sour quicker than anticipated. I'm now convinced. It's useless for govt to stick their collective heads in the sand and say I see no problem down here. It's also worrisome because I don't have a lot of confidence that Jim FLAHERTY is real up for such a challenge. Maybe if the Conservatives get back in power a change in that portfolio would be a great idea. He hasn't done much so far so I'm sure there would be a sigh of relief in financial circles and by John Q


Paul - Orillia
said

What crystal ball??
Canadians must be really dumb to beleive the all mighty Harper on everything he says.

Just foolish.


rottin ralphie
said

Whats up Chuck? Try maybe 2 major cities where housing prices aren't inflated. You're buying into a falling market. Keep your cash safe and look for bargains. Next year.


Arthur
said

The City of Brampton planning staff can confirm
that permits for new home construction has recently contracted by about 33%. Mls.ca listings in many areas are showing home owners weekly lowering their prices in desirable locations. So what's not to believe? Uncertainty will drive the situation.


Jordan
said

In response to people who think that this can not happen in Canada, and specifically, Debbie, who claims that we don't "refinance" our mortgages in Canada... wake up. As someone who is working in the financial services industry, and has worked both as an investment advisor and a personal banker, I can assure everyone out there, that we most certainly do refinance our mortgages in Canada. Anyone who thinks that we don't, you're very misinformed. The fact of the matter is, housing prices have been growing very quickly in Canada, and are now starting to cool off. People have been using their homes as personal ATMs and refinancing their homes every few years to take advantage of the appreciation in the price of their home. The problem is, now that home prices are decreasing, all of these people are going to be "underwater", meaning they owe more on their mortgage than their home is worth. Also take into account that many of these people took out variable rate mortgages when interest rates were low... well, with the inflationary pressure mounting day by day, and only getting worse the longer our central bank has to keep pumping liquidity into the money markets, it's only a matter of time before interest rates shoot up so that we can contain inflation, which means these people are going to have to pay more money for the principal on their home to go down, which means some people might not be able to afford the extra money. We're trailing the states right now, but we have the same issues brewing, it might not be AS bad as it is down there, but to think we are immune to such a problem is very cocky and uninformed.


Mike
said

How funny that the people saying that the US is just trying to bring down Canada down and that our economy is good are the same people who might not like what Bush has done to their economy. Yet, they will still vote for Stephen Harper. I don't get it - they are not big fans of Bush but they will vote for Harper who is a big fan of Bush. Logic people! Why vote for Harper then? Hmmmm?


Scott
said

This is pure spin. Only a select few cities are seeing overinflated prices. Try going to Halifax, Oshawa or Thunder Bay. Visit Winnipeg or Brandon and tell me housing prices are too high.

Any the fear mongers that are predicting a collapse of the Canadian economy... its purely wishful thinking.

We have a balanced budget and have insulated ourselves quite well from the problems in the States.


Shaun
said

Continued i forgot something..... Why should the average Joe Blow that is trying to make a living, have to pay higher rates pretty much in every sector because some greety CEO is trying to make a couple million in bonuses, its makes me sick. Its these CEO's that are crashing our economies too. Why should they make millions for pretty much pushing a pen all day and ordering people around, making sure all of our lives are ruined. Please sign me up, i would like to make millions to ruin peoples lives too.


bobmac
said

We'll maybe not like the US, but real estate is significantly over valued in many parts of Canada compared to wages and if it falls in value we could be in the same type of mess.


Shaun
said

It's statements like this that are making our global economy crash. Who does Merril Lynch think they are making a bold statement like that, I personally think all these high profile companies that are making such unpredicted statements honestly should just shut there mouths and let our economies be.....if they shut up and stop helping push everything either further down are further up our economies might just have a chance to be bailed out.


Fraser
said

What people do not get is the fact in simplistic terms the bad mortgage debts were packaged with different types of investment instrument i.e. 401K's, Mutals etc. Moreover the greed of purchasing these intruments spilled over into Canada ask the upper executives of the TD, CIBC, RBC and BMO how their balance sheets looked before and after the begining of the subprime crisis.
The meltdown in the U.S. is more far reaching than many realize. We are all going to see an overhaul in the banking system like none other we have witnessed in history. It may not be optimum either. Time will tell. My prediction is that there will be a lot less small banks around but maybe that was the whole plan all along??



Brian
said

When you think about it all we have in Canada is a sub-prime market. Unlike the States we can not get a fixed thiry year term at say 5 percent. Our mortgage terms have to be renewed every one,two,three or maybe 5 years. When mortgage interest rates go back to normal which is 7 or 8 percent alot of people renewing that were at 4.5 or 5 percent will see there payments go up when thier house value may be dropping. I see this causeing problems for many people. A two or three percent rise in interest rates will be no different that a US sub-prime resetting at a higher rate. Interest rates have been so low here and in the US that is what is going to cause problems here. In the eighties this happened when rates went from 8 percent to 18 percent. At the time homes were under a hundred grand in Vanacouver many people lost thier homes. This time because homes are worth six or seven hundred thousand it would only take a couple percent rise to cause alot of people with big mortgages real problems. We souuld not be so smug. If intrest rates around the world go up Canada rates will follow. I feel sorry for those with three hundred thousand mortgates a rise of a couple percent and falling home prices will kill them.


GG
said

For those that state that capitalism is not to blame..the reality is that it is a major contributor to this problem..wall street, corporate america, through the downside of capitalism ( it is unsustainable and lends itself to corruption and greed)created a huge glass bubble...it paid them handsomely and left the bag to average americans to bail out. Fannie Mae and Freedie Mac are not the fall guys here. It is quite obvious who is and why even the government realizes that some changes need to be incorporated into captialistic america in the form of oversight and regulation to enable the free market system to work. I am a believer in free markets but without adequate controls it lends to the rich getting richer and the poor and middle class getting poorer. It is unsustainable without some balance. It is like a game of monopoly- you can only win at the expense of others..and those with more have an unfair advantage in the game. An overhaul of capitalism is required. It can work but not like it was structured in the past. That is clear and obvious. One would think true capitalists and advocates of the free market would want to fix the system rather than move to the alternatives. The system needs balance, oversight and more fairness. Seems pretty simple to me. Anything else suggests a conspiracy to save and protect those that created this mess and to extend this ridiculous capital structure even further. A hidden agenda for sure. Which is why Congress and the Senate from both party's are hesitant about the current bailout proposal.


bruno
said

It will be interesting to see what happens in the future to house prices. All of these people, including Harper who seem so assured one way or the other about what will happen. Some of you will be eating crow.



deepak , calgary
said

Merrill Lynch..couldnot predict the Wall street going bankrupt, who the hell they are to predict about Canada or matter any other countrys economies.I do agree the house prices are too high here and it has started cooling a bit..but that doesnot mean that the Entire nation economy is in bad shape.There are other factors too, which governs the economy.How much US govt. is spending on Iraq war??Where is the money coming from??This was all bound to happen in US.


james
said

Didn't many of the "most respected" American financial institutions just go bust? Didn't the US government just bail them out to the tune of $700 billion?

Like anyone is going to believe anything an American or American company says. They have zero credibility and this report is simply trying to say "all you guys are as bad as us".

Anyone who has lived in the US for more than a day knows their whole economy is built on credit and false optimism. It as simply collapsed.

Americans are petroleum whores. So long as they need oil, the Canadian economy will do just fine. We excel in resources, manufacturing, innovation, education, and sound fiscal management.


socialist state
said

It funny how many people blame the wrong people in all of this. They blame the government, they blame the banks. When in reality the blame falls squarely on the people who bought the homes in the first place. Just because a bank or government allows you to do something does absolve you of the responsiblity of knowing wether it's smart or not. it doesn't take a genius to realize that if you make $30000-$40000 a year that even if the bank allows you to taking out a $400,000 mortgage is a stupid idea.

I look forward to the housing crunch I may not make as big a profit off my house when i go to sell it but I'll get the house i want with an acreage, for cheap.


Danny
said

I hope every home owner loses their shirt. Then maybe I can actually afford something larger than a shoe box for the $1,400 a month I'm paying. (<900 sq/ft apartment, all be it new and fairly nice.) The government should not be trying to keep home prices high. That's picking winners. Home owners get rich, and us recent grads can forgot about ever owning a real home without being in debt up to our eyeballs. I fail to see how going from 25% of income max, to 42% of income max towards a mortgage over the last few years is a good thing. People need to be able to afford to live and right now they can't if they're starting out. If prices fall inflation will stall or reverse, and things will balance out on their own with reasonable housing prices.


Tim Devine
said

The rules are different in Canada. We already had our meltdown in the 80's and the rules were tightened then. If anything, the Americans should have learned from us. We had to learn the hard way in the late 80's that not everyone can afford a house, and is not going to afford a house. Just because you have a case of the gimmes does not give you the right to own a home. The Canadian government, through the CMHC has ensured that the person obtaining the mortgage can afford the mortgage and the ensuing costs that come with it. If you have less than 25% dow, BY LAW it is an insured mortgage and this is where CMHC steps in. I really doubt what happened in the us can happen here


Calgarian
said

Steve from Calgary,

What? Alberta house prices are very cheap? What are you comparing this too, downtown Vancouver? Very cheap? If it's so cheap, start buying!!!

Wages High? Only in one sector - oil/gas and oil/gas services, most of us can't even keep up to inflation in Alberta (which has the highest inflation numbers in Canada).

Sometimes I'm embarrassed to be an Albertan, we are so self centered, and some of us have the gall to call Toronto the centre of the Universe.




John
said

My God people, I find it so interesting that people want to believe everything they here. Oil $150.00 a barrell by Labour Day, NOT. Natual Gas at an all time high, actually the market price is down. Canada in a recession, no actually it is not, Ontario is on the verge of a recession, the answer blame Stephen Harper. People People, yes Ontario will face hard times for the next 8-12 months and it would be the LIBERAL PROVINCIAL goverenment of Dalton McGuinty's job to do something about it, instead of raising taxes and saying Ontario is just fine, Canada is a natural resources based economy with now largely world ties, the US is our largest trading partner but we now trade almost 60% with the rest of the world only 40% with the US. Our banks do not lend money to people who are bad credit risks, they have to be employeed, they only lend to 95% of the value of a home. For those expecting a $400,000.00 home to drop to $230,000.00 get real at best in certain hard hit area's mostly in Ontario perhaps a 5-10% drop but not accross the country. Alb,Sask,and NFLD will actully carry this country through the world storm, people in Canada cannot borrow more than 95% of the value of there home that includes lines of credit. Banks are not allowed to lend more than 45% of a couples income in credit period. This country will suffer from a global economic slow down however, even in the US the safety system to prevent the same crash of 1929 have not been triggered. Canada will be just fine and actually the conservatives are correct we have the strongest economy of the G7 countries, we will recover first, and end up stronger.


~JoeNorthAmerican~
said

Shoot the messenger because you don't like the message. Ha ha you people are so funny! Time to get real. Start stocking your freezers with food. Learn how to make a huge vat of spaghetti sauce, freeze it in containers and eat it over the next 6 months. Time to economize folks and get ready for the lean times. Your credit fantasy land is about to become a nightmare.


Buba
said

"We are taking steps to show Canadians and show international investors that this is a strong place to do business, and a well-run country with strong balance sheets of governments, households and financial institutions,' Harper said.

Yeah and that's why Flaherty was running around saying "Don't invest in Ontario"


BB in B.C.
said

Your neighbor sells his place and you find out how much he got for it and instantly list yours to get in on the stampede. Guess what? The whole block is already listed. The greedy realtors get paid if you buy or sell and they don't like cutting their fees either. If you are asking too much, no problem it only helps massage prices and the realtors earn more.


steve mcg
said

A little different situation here in fort Mac. If there is a "correction" in the housing market here.....be carefull tripping over the keys as you walk in the front door of the bank


Mark from Brampton
said

Just so we are clear, Capitalism is not the culprit here. The culprit is GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION!

The US government has been expanding it's money supply at an enormous rate. The government created Fannie and Freddie to help people who wouldn't normally be able to afford homes, buy them (sub-prime). THAT is what caused the problem.

In a natural market, where credit is not incredibly easy for banks to obtain, banks would be more selective in who they lend to.

Don't be fooled by people saying capitalism is the problem, when in fact it is the answer.



Gary
said

Harper's increase of maximum amortization period to 40 from 25 years in 2006 on residential mortgages is just the Canadian version of sub prime. Harper gave in to the big corporations. He does not give a hoot about the working men and women. The bubble will burst soon . Thank you Mr. Harper AKA mini me Bush


majere magi
said

To "Winney"
My wife nor I can lose our jobs. We are both guarrenteed approx 44k per year due to Military insurance and disability. So let the housing bubble burst and I will buy a nice cheap bungalow. Oh yea I am only 45.
cheers :) majere


T in Ottawa
said

Quote: He said the banking crisis in the U.S. is a concern for the global economy, but Canada has taken steps to make sure its financial sector will not end up in a similarly precarious situation.

Ya, I call that service charges.


stephen calgary
said

steve from calgary
very simple remedy, save money, dont sell your house for less then what you are buying for...
once people realize that we control the housing market we can dictate supply/demand. wait to sell your home once the inventory is down....

alberta will be fine,house prices are very cheap, and wages are high.

people always need a house over their heads, so those people who did the 40yr mortgages will lose their home, then they will need to find housing elsewhere, ie: rent those other properites that investors buy for the long run, not the short gain


Gary
said

Here is the potential risk to Canadians who think we are safe because of our mortgage practices. The severe problems in the housing crisis in the US will affect the credit market...the downturn in the US economy will lead to decreased consumption/spending...thus less demand for Canadian exports..thus loss of Canadian jobs ...loss of jobs= loss of more homes in Canada. Add in the factor that we have an enormous personal debt load only means that the hit will come harder and faster. This Canadian crisis will then affect the Canadian economy..of course less than the US situtation but we will ALL feel it at some level. The only ones exempt are the rich, people with paid off mortgages, those with a savings nest egg to weather the storm, and smart businesses, who operate outside greed and corruption.. and yes, the US finanacial companies and corporate America and by extension the US economy is in trouble due to their greed, and corruption but we are also to blame as we live beyond well our means...the ' NOW' phenomen is over. The latest ' reality show' ?.... us.


JMH Windsor ON
said

We are raising a bunch of brats or the "entitlement generation" fueled by consumerism.
How can we teach responsibility when we our selves are living on credit driving our new fancy care equipped with DVG players living in houses the size of castles that some will never be pay off and be mortgage free?
We all have way more than we need.



GP
said

Here on the west coast there are still lots of jobs, lots of spending, the housing market is at most 15% above the historical trend values (that is the important benchmark), and household mortgage debt is close to all time lows...this report is just pure crap.

Yes the housing market is going into a downturn. No it will not be a crash like in the US because the ability to pay off debt by truly qualified mortgage holders here in Canada is very good.

Somebody needs to kick these fools in the butt for such a ridiculously myopic prospective.


my take on this
said

I don't believe a word that comes out of Stephen Harper's mouth. He is controlling, secretive, doesn't keep his word and is about as warm and fuzzy as a flu pandemic.

Harper is Robin Hoodwinked, he gives to the rich and takes away from the poor.

Canada be afraid, be very afraid. Four years is a very long time with a conservative majority.


VIP
said

"One of the world's most respected investment firms", excuse me. Didn't they just defraud their shareholders and now the CEO is stealing another 50 Million just to leave the disaster he created? Why would anybody reputable publish a single word these guys have to say? Why are they even daring to open their mouths after what has happened?


BadP
said

I can't wait until my bank defaults on my mortgage


Wes
said

One of the world's most respected investment firms

Merrill Lynch economists say

Wasn't Merrill Lynch one of those bailed out firms?

Yea ok buddy. Come visit Canada before you comment on us.



AJ
said

We do not need advice from the "Canadian division of Merrill Lynch", a "respected investment firm". Isn't Merrill Lynch part of the huge problem in the US? We can do well, and very well, without them here in Canada. We do not need their fear-mongering.


harbinger of doom
said

Once they start talking about a meltdown it will happen. Wait until next year to buy a house. They'll be some awesome deals.


AM
said

Yes, and I "MAY" win 6/49


Katie
said

If the housing prices are going to drop, I'm buying immediately!! I'm a newlywed, and am living in a great basement apartment at my in law's, but I'm keen on owning my own house!!
A drop in the sale prices would be GREAT for my husband and I right about now!



Debbie
said

For the past several years whenever I travelled to my company head office in Chicago, all the employees were talking at the watercooler about "refinancing" their debt - constantly. Took me a while to learn but they were all consolidating their debt and financing the additional equity their homes had gained since buying them. That doesn't exist in Canada! We do things much differently, much more cautiously as a rule - so although we may have some bumps ahead, they won't be the huge potholes the US has dug for themselves. We're generally more conservative than they are in how we spend and borrow money.


Patricia
said

I find it hard to believe anything that the flaky financial people tell us anymore. They are the ones that caused the problem in the first place. How much do they really know? Zilch! And how honest are they being with us? Liars...all of them. And that includes Mr. Bush who is going to address the US nation tonight.


Allan
said

Reading the comments, M.lynch is out to lunch comments, induces laughter. No one mentions that the ML article mentioned the U.K. along with the U.S. never mind the E.U. Australia along with most of the world. Wake up folks there is a credit crunch and it is world wide. For anyone to dismiss that Canada will not be affected may as well stick thier head in the sand. Also Canadians have been buying houses with ZERO down for near a decade and most of those have been borrowing on there home equity to buy the toys. As one prior comment , how the heck can one afford the 250,000 home and the new SUV on $15 loonies an hour.


Home-builder employee at risk
said

This just confirm my fear that I may lose my job at one of Canada's largest home-builder already downsizing in past few weeks. We are facing a possible massive lay-off. As election come by, I cannot afford to vote for these Harpries back to Government because they've done nothing but kept saying "WE are fine and just keep spending" in past few months when REST OF WORLD HOUSING ARE FALLING APART!

I fear that I will lose my job but if I end up lucky winner and kept my job during massive collaspe in housing market. I guess it is best time for me to buy a SEVERLY REDUCED house in this spring.

Either way, it's still not good for anyone else.

DO SOMETHING! STOP LETTING MARKET KEEP GOING DOWN!... IT IS OBVIOUS THAT WE DO CONTROL MARKET EH? STAND UP FOR CANADA! I'm parking my vote with Liberal this time as I know Carbon Tax will enlarge my company and give a much-needed boost to housing insdrustry!

Sick of worried for my life as I know I am unable to otbain employment at somewhere if I lose my job!


Shane Prpich
said

I can't wait to see the 100% inflated home prices in Saskatoon crash!
To all the greedy Albertans that ruined the housing market here. I hope you lose your shirt!

Bring on the recession.. my rent needs to go down!


tim-j - ottawa
said

Outstanding debt is at an all time high. Supply has increased dramatically over the past few years during the housing boom. Salaries have not kept pace with housing prices. There is a tightening credit market (Banks are very careful who they lend to as well as not giving discounts off the posted rates) as well as a recession coming. CMHC made a foolish decision in offering 0 down 40 year mortgages which is worse than 0 down 30 year mortgages which was in the US. Although the sub-prime market was only 5% in Canada versus 20% in the US, the housing prices still went up too fast in Canada. I have been expecting this to happen. My advice to home owners is to sell now before the housing market bottom completely drops out.


Charles N
said

No one is seriously (or credibly) claiming Harper caused the world financial crisis. However, it is ENTIRELY RATIONAL to realize that Harper shares an ideology with the people who COLLECTIVELY have caused the world financial crisis.

UNREGULATED capitalism has been FORCEFULLY BLUDGEONED with a razor-studded club. REGULATED capitalism MIGHT be able to survive (if we refrain from destroying the conditions that allow it to flourish).

There is a problem with PURE ideology, whether socialist, capitalist, or whatever. We need to get on with balanced measures that avoid the worst of extremes.

What I'm saying is it's time to call Harper's bluff.


cosmo
said

If you believe Merrill Lynch's nonsense then you probably don't understand the massive differences in how the majority of our mortgages are different from the U.S's nor the history of what has happened in the U.S. to create their current massive problem. There is usually some trickle-down effect, especially when investors panic - which they seem to be good at. Although our growth has moderated and some people who have extended themselves too far will endure hardships, overall our fundamentals are solid. Merrill Lynch has no credibility right now due to its extreme ineptitude in running itself. I doubt anyone from that company has taken the time to examine the Canadian economy in light of their current problems...or perhaps they are not happy with the number of Canadians currently taking advantage of the U.S. downturn by buying up homes in Phoenix, and various locations in Florida?


tony g
said

Now that may be the REAL reason Harper is calling an early general election!

That way he gets another 5 years before the electorate discover the truth.


Don Burbidge
said

Why would anyone believe what these "reputable experts" say. They are either being investigated by police or running for the hills after screwing so many of their clients. These folks in the financial market have lost all credibility. If they're still managing your money, you are a fool.


Ron_Wetaskiwin
said

Hey everybody out there.

There is an easy way to solve this problem. Just do not sell your home for less than what you paid for it….



Boyd
said

Having bad debt is worse than being poor.. i think. A poor person doesnt have anything.They are at 0. A person with debt has negative. This is where we are as Canadians. Most Canadians atleast.


stephen
said

I suspect they failed to analyze the effects of the differences in tax systems. In the U.S.A. mortgage interest is a tax deduction hence a reason maximize your mortage. The equivalent incentive does not exist in Canada in fact it pays to decrease your mortage. There is significantly higher percent of mortgage free homes in Canada, a fact I believe they have ignored.


Kevin in Van
said

Myrell Lynch is one of the companies responsible for the US crisis. The problem the Americans have is greed and coruption at the highest echelons of business. Savings and loan collapse in the 80"s, Enron and the accounting scandals of the 90's and now this. Myrell lynch would love to see the Canadian market tumble because if it doesn't the American people will demand regulation and oversight based on our model, and hey it would make it much harder for company's like Myrell Lynch to rob the public.


Calgarian
said

Okay, First Merrill Lynch did not go Bankrupt as everyone is suggesting. They agreed to sell themselves to Bank of America to avert a financial crisis, a humbling move on their part, but responsible. And who better to learn from than someone who watched it unfold from the front lines in the U.S.

Are you afraid that Harper may be a little naive? "I don't accept that conclusion, not at all," Harper told reporters on tour in British Columbia in regards to Merrill Lynch's report. I think these words will come back to haunt him.



Exiled Canadian
said

"The report's authors admit that their analysis runs counter to the prevailing view."

Jay and GG,

So two people from a U.S.-based financial institution who wrote this report against hundreds of analysts with a differing view. Hmmmm who should I believe? The two "experts" from M-L or hundreds of other experts from other institutions? That's not bashing, that's reviewing all points of view on the matter, not just the one that agrees with a "Conservatives are Evil" point-of-view.

Facts are facts, the fiasco that occurred in the U.S. did not take place in Canada or certainly nowhere on the same scale. If people took out loans they couldn't afford and are now paying the price for their financial irresponsibility, that's too bad. But when you play roulette with your money, there are two possible outcomes: you win or you lose.

No one forced these people to make that gamble. They gambled. They lost.


other factors in us ottawa
said

I think there are other factors in the US apart from the mortgage fine print. Health care is a biggie. Many people lose their shirts if some health crisis happens. We are lucky here because of universal health care (ok yes I know the emergency guy died yesterday but dont bash me for that, how would you like to be paying 20,000 for cancer treatments, or 1000 a month for insurance, think about it). I don't disagree that I think a lot of people up here are overextended with the low prime interest rate. They probably forget what happened when it went up to 20%. That would be trouble for folks.


carrie in Canada
said

A wealthy man taught us that in our early 20's, do the opposite of what the 'masses' do and you'll be rich. 15 yrs later, we'll ride this out just fine. Go get some financial advice and quit spending so much everyone!

This is inevitable. Unlike the majority of people we know, we set ourselves up for this day by NOT buying RV's, fancy SUV's, bought a home 10 years back that was modest and have not 'upgraded'. We all want want want NOW.

Now the remaining few will be able to get great deals from people's need for greed & high lifestyle. If you end up in bankruptcy, go blame the person in the mirror. We could all live a lifestyle within our means but most don't.


dan
said

First, this is Merrill Lynch Canada not the US company trying to deflect heat off of the US.

These are respected economists that are saying what Garth Turner has been going across the country saying for over a year - no down payment, 40 year mortgages and a housing market that quickly spiked in value is a recipe for problems in a downturn.

It will not be the same as in the US but it is still a real a problem when people have upside down mortgages - a house worth less than the mortgage.

Merrill Lynch is not being alarmist, they are being prudent to wake people up.


Winny
said

majere magi and Sherry and other people wanting a housing meltdown (because they want to "buy a place at a discount").

Are you not paying attention to what is happening in the US. Housing Meltdown == Economy Collapse == you will lose your job == no home for you. It is surprising how simplistic some people are.


Tim
said

There may be problems in specific cities, like Greater Toronto, Greater Vancouver and much of Alberta.
I think housing prices may go down in depressed areas like Windsor and other industrial cities too.
For the most part, I hope it is isolated to those areas and I hope the banks can handle it without taxpayer input.


roy
said

i personally don't think Canada is in or near the shape of the us economy but if a crisis does come the people whom are going to be hit are those who live from paycheck to paycheck and probably living beyond there means everyone should live on a budget and build a nest egg that will carry them through rough periods.please don't start blaming the government because people bring these kinds of situations upon themselves.


TD
said

I am a Lender my self and there are Two HUGE differences between U.S. lending and Canadian lending. We do not give 150% Financing (borrowing more then your house is actually worth), max is 95%. Also a huge factor is affordability, something U.S. lenders cared nothing about. House sales may start to slow down, and values may decrease. However nothing close to the U.S. and there bad mortgage debt.


Winnipeg
said

We live in a modest house and it suits us fine. The mortgage was based on what we wanted to spend not on what the bank would lend us. Now I sit back and wait for the fall. I do not feel sorry for the over extended. To them I say "come to daddy" I'm poised to buy your cabin on Lake of the Woods...CHEAP


James
said

Would this be the analysts of the same Merril Lynch that recently found itself a victim of the US problems because of its analysts' bad judgments?

Or perhaps they're assuming that the Canadian banks lent out in the same fashion as the US banks, which they haven't.

Not a trustworthy analysis at all, they're just trying to spread the pain.


David
said

I am amused at the report because the report was produced by FAILED and BANKRUPT Merrill Lynch. So don't trust Merrill Lynch at all.


debbie ellison
said

I do not see things being as bad here as the US. That said, I do think that people who bought in the last few years, bought at very inflated prices. The chickens will also come home to roost here. Not a total meltdown, but I do foresee many foreclosures. Prices were much too inflated. They are already dropping. Jobs are disappearing. It is just a matter of time. Too many people are living too close to the edge. One little bump in the road will send them over the embankment.


Moe
said

What a joke! Ontario is in recession therefore Canada is in recession. Yet in Alberta we are crying for workers. Ontario is NOT the centre of the universe and I resent this fearmongering just because Ontario has a case of the sniffles. Shame on you!


Jonathan
said

How many canadian families could survive a month if they did not have a credit card(s), a line of credit to tap, or an overdraft on their bank account. How many could actually make it on the income they actually bring in? If the situation worsens in the US it will spill over to all of us. There will be more job losses, and home values will fall. Like it or now, Canadians do not live within their means - savings are at historic lows, and many have cashed out their home equity in exchange for vacations and SUVs. The days of easy credit are drawing to a close.


Michelle
said

Well I have to say when I look around and see all these people who have average paying jobs yet seem to be able to afford half million dollar homes with all the trendiest furnishings, two expensive cars, cottages, and at least two expensive holidays yearly, I have often wondered how they do it because I know I can't afford those things with an average salary. There must be a lot of people winning lotos or they are over extended on credit.


Nick S
said

Gee, so they're saying that we borrowed more than we saved in 2002? Could this perhaps be because interest rates were at all-time lows and banks and particularly vehicle finance companies were practically throwing money at us? Also, even if we did go in over our heads in '02, our 5-year mortgage renewal with the higher interest rate would have been completed in 2007, and so if this so-called "meltdown" was going to happen, don't you think it would have happened by now??


Colin
said

boy people have it figured out dont they?


Full of BS
said

Hey Merrill Lynch in the USA - why don't you just shut your mouth as you know nothing about our mortgage rules!!... If your so damned smart - why did you let the sub-prime mortgage crisis happen in the first place??

I knew when the USA first starting giving mortgages to people who couldn't qualify under your own existing rules a mortgage that would reset it's interest rate to almost double the introductory rate - the people wouldn't be able to make the increased payments... DUH

Canadians - Don't listen to financial analysts as every one of them I ever meet couldn't predict rain if it was falling on their own heads.



Jess
said

From my personal experience, banks do not overlend crazy amounts of money. I needed an extra 15K for my current place, and it was not easy to get it. Don't worry, we'll be fine on this side of the border.


Marco
said

Oh, please do not blame US. This is not a conspiracy.

Rather, ask yourself what is really behind the boom in the past 10 years.
The median family income in the past 7 years actually went down. Normally, house price appreciation is a result of increasing family wealth.
We had historically low interest rate, which rendered cheap money, and created a credit culture where real personal wealth became irelevant. Not any more. It's payback time.



Reece
said

There's undue optimism in our market & it's pretty arrogant to judge how things will turn in the future simply by focusing only on our fortunes of today. We Canadians lack the same fiscal disciplines in our own personal finances as the Americans do. The reason why bank regulations are in place is to protect the people who don't know any better. I drive a small Honda Civic while my neighbour drives an Infiniti equipped with GPS. I can buy that car but it's foolish. Credit is easily had & there was one time I maxed out 3 Mastercards & 2 Visas & yet I could still apply for more credit cards and would get it. I've learned my lesson the hard way & I know better than to be lured into a 40 year mortgage or get into the "buy now & pay $0 until 2010" - those are predatory finance practices aimed at the more inexperienced or desperate people. 40 years to pay off your mortgage while even today your home has slid 5% in value - you're in the hole by 5% - you have $0 equity, and for what? So you can tell your friends you "own" a house? 40 year mortgages were created by banks not to do you a favour but to do themselves a favour. Those bank executives are surfing the bubble & getting their performance bonuses but they won't be here long - they're retiring to their paid off mortgages in the Bahamas while you have 40+ years to go. And by the time you're nearing the mortgage burning party you'll be carted off to an Old Peoples Home with your home sold off to pay for that particular care/rent.




Ms. L.
said

Quote from article: In fact, just this past weekend, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty told CTV's Question Period that Canadians can "rest assured our banks are solid."

-----

After seeing the disaster down south, I'm not convinced ANY bank is "solid".

But one thing is certain, in a recession, you better have a damn good secure job or two to keep up your mortgage. And a recession is looking likely as far as I can tell.


Potato
said

I agree with most that this is total bull, but I still think it will affect the markets which is why I have dumped some cdn financial getting ready to go back in when it dips.


GRIM
said

I think a correction is definitely in order. I don't solely blame banks for this mess. Consumers are to blame for always trying to get bigger more expensive homes (especially as family sizes decline), and Realtors. Realtors in my mind keep pushing the limit on housing prices. It is in their best interest to do so as they get a bigger paycheck on more expensive properties.

Come on price correction - just not too severe please.


Josh
said

Merrill Lynch did not consider some major differences in the two economies. Sure some Canadians may be over extended, however the fiscal policies in Canada and the operational style of our banks are two huge factors that will contribute to our 'weathering the storm'.

Fiscal Policies - The federal government did not allow the 50+ yr mortgages like those seen in the states. I like to think of that lending as second generation debt. Now we have reduced the max amortization to 35 and no more zero downs. These are great initiatives by the feds.

Our Banks - our banks were not stupid enough to lend their money for less than what they were getting it for. Don't we all wish we could have got a mortgage rate less than Bank of Canada's rate.

Some complain that there isn't more choice for banking in Canada, however, I don't think many will be complaining when our banks stay strong and all the banks in the states collapse.


iphone u yah
said

In Canada, you need a job and you have to have a SIN. Unlike the U.S.
The U.S. tax system encourages people to take on more debt with the ridiculous scheme of deducting mortgage interest from your taxes. No wonder alot of dumb Americans used their house as a money machine.
For these reasons and other ones, I highly doubt we'd have the same meltdown in Canada.


Joe, Calgary
said

Can't happen in Canada you say? Well It did. Alberta in the mid - late 80's. People walking away from homes because they over extended themselves (which Albertans blamed on the NEP, but in reality it was riding the dream of infinite flow of Oil Money). Certain Alberta Financial institutions went under due to defaulting on loans. Sure interest rates were high, but we also didn't use credit lines to subsidize our lifestyles. So don't go all high and mighty saying we are different, because we aren't.


Maggie West
said

Perhaps a scare tactic, but maybe a wake up call, especially in those markets where the price of housing is overinflated.

The economic downturn in Ontario may have prompted Merrill Lynch to make this assessment. Canada is not just Ontario. We seem to be doing fine out west (Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta and BC). We have seen a slow-down in the housing market, but this is normal -- the market has a tendency to correct itself.

So, where we find overinflated prices in the west, hopefully the market will correct itself and bring down prices (but not too dramatically).




Kevin in T.O.
said

We've seen double digit housing average price appreciation in Toronto for the better part of a decade. We simply cannot sustain that level. There are two theories 1) that housing prices are correcting themselves after being relatively undervalued and 2) the prices are being driven up artificially by speculators ie. those who scoop up old houses, tear them down and rebuild monster homes for either personal use or resale.
My guess is somewhere in the middle. What I do believe is that many Torontonians have over extended themselves and won't be able to afford their mortgage payments. This will begin the housing market correction and powers of sale will be on the rise. Merrill is right here but it won't be the same level as the US where anyone with a pulse got a 95% mortgage.


DC in AB
said

Roger T: We ARE NOT in a recession. A recession occurs when the GDP of a country drops for two or more quarters consecutively. Canada has not seen our GDP drop at all. We have the world's strongest most resilient economy because of our natural resources. We are in no danger of losing on the GDP because if the US doesn't buy our resources, other countries (China and Russia among others come to mind).

We will not have the same housing crunch as we did not buy in to the sub-prime mortgage fiasco that the Americans got themselves into. We will survive. We are not tied to the US economy like we were in the 80's and early 90's.


Mary Ewen
said

A slow down is a very reasonable expectation.
But to expect record bankrupties,as seen from the sub prime mortgages in the U.S. won't happen here.
Sub prime mortgages were never offered here in Canada,so the same scenario does not exist.


PBW
said

It's quite funny really.
Here is one of the biggest investment companies in the world, that has problems keeping its own financial house in order, forecasting the same disaster for Canada.

What are they going to do - sell Canada short, just like the people who have been manipulating the US stock markets recently?

It has always bothered me, that: permitting someone to sell shares in a company that s/he does not own. By the same token I should be able to sell my neighbor's house. . . so that's what they plan! They'll sell off Canada, take the profits and then buy it up when the price has dropped sufficiently!


Vahan
said

Here is the best way to solve this problem. If you have a house on the market, and your neighbour has a house on the market, take yours off the market. Wait until the neighbour sells. Less supply more demand, stable prices. Problem solved. See I could guess at how the market could swing just like the highbrow "analysts". All this speculation is nothing but that. Don't panic. The crush in the U.S is limited to those who could not afford houses in the first place.


Patrick
said

Didn't a half dozen of "reputable" companies in the U.S. just declare bankruptcy, and require Federal bail-out? I wouldn't trust a U.S. firm looking at the way we do business here in Canada. Not any more. It's like a fat kid looking at the last piece of cake, trying to convince everyone else at the table that they don’t want it.


Boyd
said

Many people think Canada is immune to economic problems. The future doesnt look good. Politicians keep telling us about the good numbers..which numbers? for Corporations or the people? Canadians are in debt. Things are changing fast. too much dependency on commodies


OldeHippy
said

This fear mongering out of Toronto may become a self-fulfilling prophesy in Ontario and these irresponsible "experts" should be treated the same as the person who yells FIRE in a crowded theater. In Edmonton and Calgary at least, re-sale homes are still selling for less than it costs for land development, materials and labour to build new ones. If prices were to drop no new homes could be built. Where would everyone live who is coming west to fill the thousands of job vacancies?

Jason in Kelowna
said

I don't see this as a bad thing. Maybe housing in this country will finally be affordable!


P. Schroper
said

No money down, 40 year mortgages, over priced houses, and now there might be a mortgage meltdown. It won't be as bad as the US, but it is going to happen. It won't bother the Baby Boom generation, because we moved up slow and steady. Baby Boomers only bought what they could afford and then worked to pay off that High Interest Mortgage.


Joe, Calgary
said

So much for Harper's "our economy is strong" sales pitch. Funny, but that is exactly what Bush said before the meltdown down south.

It doesn't take a degree in Economics to see that this will happen here. Take a look in most driveways, there is a greater number of high end vehicles (some cases 2 or 3) in driveways, high end Ski Boats, Quads, RV's bigger then my parents first home, people traveling to exotic locations at least once a year - not even mentioning the summer vacation homes, and large primary residence homes filled with all the latest gadgets. Where do you think this money is coming from? Salaries? No, from credit and credit lines, using our homes as collateral.

What will happen here when all the sudden our value of our homes drop even more than they have? What will happen to credit lines and Business loans? Yes, the economy will grind to a halt as more people and Businesses default on loans, employers will be forced to layoff to stay afloat. People will stop purchasing.

Canadians used to be good at saving for a rainy day, but alas we have become a 'ME - NOW' society just as down south.


S. Dorland
said

Unlike the U.S., you need a job to get a mortgage in Canada.


Stephan
said

Merrill Lynch is the last reliable source I would trust today. After all it was their financial debacle and acquisition by Bank of America that completely crashed the US financial markets. Merrill Lynch was so exposed to the sub-prime mortgage gamble led by Merrill's unwise, uncalculated, illogical and greedy decisions. So why would I listen to Merrill now? I wonder what authority or credibility Merrill even has to make statements like this. If Merrill was savvy and logical in its risk management, they wouldn't have collapsed and be bought by Bank of America. Merrill Lynch - does this company still exists?


Max in Vancouver
said

I suspect a Merrill Lynch meltdown is more likely.

Top heavy beaurcratic style company with overpaid executives will prove to be their demise.

The housing market, financed by the banking industry, is solid in Canada. Stop spreading fear where there is none. The best way to make a fire grow is to fan it!


Whatever
said

Yeah whatever. Another scare tactic


lender
said

One thing i can say from experience. canadian banks don't lend like the US banks do. a lot more due dillegence is put into the process. so if there is an upswing in defaults it will be because of job losses versus bad lending practices.


Sarah
said

I had the understanding that Canada had better consumer protection laws than the US...that's WHY we're not where the US is now when it comes to mortgages.

For example the new law that prohibits new home buyer to make a purchase with "zero down". It might be harder to buy a house, but in the long run it's protecting those who can't really afford a house from problems down the road.

There's no question houses are more expensive than they should be.... but I think Canada's laws protect home buyers better, and the fact that we have fewer banks (in the US it seems every Tom Dick and Harry can own a bank) is what will prevent this "report" seriously.


Scott
said

Let me start by disclosing that I am a Bailiff for 25 years in south western Ontario.
I have been saying for years that the Canadian economy is the unstable deck of cards fueled by the speculators in all sectors of the financial frame work and promoted by our expert political system who as they will tell you---we don't make mistakes,---hold on to you're assets and be careful as I see the winds of tight credit and belt tightening blowing in from the south !


GG
said

I wish all you whack jobs would quit blaming the media...they just " REPORT" the news. The focus should be on Merrill Lynch who offered their opinion/expertise. I think its the medias " RESPONSIBILITY" to "REPORT" this information and for people to make their own opinions about its validity, truth and value. After Merrill Lynch was apparently, at most points in their history, been considered a reputuable financial company. The financial meltdown exposing investment banks in the US and somewhat in Canada are to blame for their own demise. Taking average well meaning citizens/tax payers to the cleaners with this bailout package. Lining their greedy pockets and walking away insisting everything will collapse if the taxpayers dont pay for the cost of fixing their mess. Since Merrill Lynch was part of that problem I would choose the timing and content of their statements as an indicator of a distraction to the real culprits. Themselves. The greedy investment bankers and Ceos. And lay off the media..they just are a communication vehicle for information. Its up to us to determine its value. The media is only responsible for ensuring the statements made by Merrill Lynch were in fact relayed in the news accurately. Whether the contents of the Merrill Lynch statements is ' truth' is not up to the media to determine.


Jay
said

You can tell we're into more conservative times when people start "expert" bashing... People group anyone who's more knowledgable or experience in a certain area as generic "experts" that were wrong about something 10 years ago, and thus must be wrong now. You here things like "the experts were wrong about Y2K, therefore they're wrong about global warming" (never mind that nobody with any real knowledge was worried about Y2k). Conservatives and education just don't go together...hence the 'expert' bashing.

Anyway...back on topic... I have no doubts there are a *lot* of Canadians that have been overextending themselves with the latest mortgages. People have been buying houses and condos left right and centre...add to that car payments, energy prices, the cost of living and there are many people living pay cheque to pay cheque. All it takes is a layoff...or even wage cut, and they wont' be able to afford the mortage payments.

I have to admit, I'm like some of the above that have saved a nest egg for when the housing prices go down. I don't think it will be as big of a dip as some above might be expecting, but nevertheless, it will allow me to buy house with a much smaller mortgage. Getting into a lot of debt is always a recipe for disaster IMO.


Dave in Surrey
said

Anyone dismissing this article is clearly sitting in the Conservative war room doing damage control after Harper made the very opposite announcement just a few days ago...

I know people in Vancouver who are paying 70+% of their take home income to mortgage at interest rates around 4%... If we see a climb to 6% in the next year, then time for the renew, they will be looking at the 80+% of take home income...

Scary folks...


Denis from Toronto
said

A meltdown is an extreme scenario, but I personally think Toronto house prices are out of reach for a typical family of four making $100,000 a year, unless they have some home equities. A 50% correction is possible. Remember 1991?


brenda
said

This will NEVER happen here. We are totally set up different than the American system. Why do these guys insist on scare tactics? Can't stand it that we're better off, or what?
Morons!


Adam
said

What part of recession do people not understand?


Ed
said

Possible but in only in the larger cities. Why do institutions lend money with no down payment? That is asking for trouble. When will people get it? No short cuts. Only common sense works.


Dan
said

So many peole are "mortgage poor" I'm suprised the market has held this long. Seems like everyone I know has purchased a home that was at the maximum they could afford. All it would take is a small rise in interest rates for Canada to be in the same mess as the US.


P.A.
said

The reason things went south down south is that Congress (specifically the Democrats) forced lending institutions to hand out money to people they knew would not able to pay it back, then these bad debts were sold up the line to Freddie and Fannie. Freddie and Fannie CEO's (who are Democrat political hacks appointed to the position) said 'look how many assets we manage!' and gave themselves huge bonuses, defrauded their company of much more money, and also gave MILLIONS to many of the political buddies, like the ones who have the job of overseeing their operations as well as Obama.

Canadian banks are not making high risk loans, and as far as I know, no party is using the CMHC as their own piggy bank. If we get into trouble here it will only be because of high taxes, so it makes sense to vote for a government that is going to cut spending to extras like the arts rather than one that will throw money to any group it can buy votes from.


BB in B.C.
said

No problem. We'll just wrap the bad loans up in a bundle and sell them to foreigners. Seriously when you see real estate prices soar 50% in 3 years or less you should be ready for a correction. The lucky ones sold a few months ago and will buy back in when the price is right just like Warren Buffet.


Hah
said

Phew! These firms have been completely wrong so far, so this is good news.

Remember just six months ago when our economy was too hot? Then inflation was a problem? Last week is was deflation? Now real estate??

They're awesome at predicting yesterday, but that's about it.

Just relax and go about your day...nothing you can do about things anyway.


Socialism is killing us
said

This is great. Going to buy a new house within a year so hopefully those $400 000 homes will go for $230 000 again.


ASpenc
said

...I just finished reading another economist who said such a melt down would not happen because most Canadian mortgages have down payments backing them up. ..

FCS
said

"Only goes to prove that the US is willing to bring down other nations ecomonies. Just another scare tactic to keep the people worried"

Well that's prettty inane. After all what would any of us have to be worried about right? Apparently Canada exists in a bubble where nothing can touch us. 250, 000 $ for your average home ? Oh yeah that not inflated at all. There is going to be a correction in this ridiculous market soon and it ain't gonna be pretty.


Mike - Calgary
said

im with Sherrie.. working for 5 years in Calgary let me save money..

so im ready for this fall.. cause I'll be scooping up my dream house shortly :)

it was only time!


Nanook
said

A recession happens when your neighbor loses his house. A depression happens when you lose yours. (Quote from some dead guy.)


KC
said

There are 40 year mortgages in the market place and a huge number of Canadians did take advantage of these mortgages....this helped tremendously with creating the bubble. These people took the bait - No money down, 40 year mortgage. They are essentially renters because they will NEVER own the house - the banks own it. They are also on the hook for the rising property taxes....YOU ARE A TENANT!


Paul in Mississauga
said

Merrill Lynch has a chronic problems with Canada. They jump in and out of the retail market without the patience they tell their clients to exercise.

The question in Canada is whether or not the institutions will collapse as in America. I doubt our better regulated institutions will suffer much but the econimic slowdown will see over-extended people lose their homes, and market values decline.

Is the headline of this article designed to scare people? "Meltdown?" I suspect 'market decline' is passe ...


MuskyBuck
said

Hey Merrill Lynch,

I'm not sure if you've noticed dear banking folks but it's pretty much in stone that you're kind can't be trusted.

This basically means that most of what you say will go in one ear and out the other before anyone has a chance to 'click' on something else.

I doubt very much any sort of meltdown in Canada and that the story you've contrived will make any gains here in Canada....much to your chagrin I'm sure.

But do go ahead and keep trying, I'm sure when this fiasco is finished and done we can all have a good laugh about it.

As I'm sure we'll have plenty opportunity to sit down at the same board tables, as our banks will be owning your ass.


Kenny
said

I think this is a stetch. In the US, there was direct government interference in the housing market, to force mortgage lending to high-risk clients that would otherwise be turned away by the banks. In addition, the US government also made sure they funelled large amounts of credit into the housing market via Freddie & Fanny. The net result was a lot of lending to people who really never should have received credit, let alone purchased homes.

The lack of such direct government intervention in the housing market here in Canada sets us apart form the US. We have a stronger, better regulated system here. Any "mortgage meltdown" in Canada will not be trigered by domestic policy or events. If it happens, it will be due to global financial woes and a spillover from gobal credit problems, and is unlikely to be as pronounced or prolonged as the crisis now being experienced in the US.


fred marcos
said

If there is a morgage problem it is because these lending institutions have not strictly followed the legal guidelies.

These institutions should be penalized and their employees sent to jail for breaking the laws.

We investors suffer the losses in the meantime.


beeman
said

The situation in Canada is hardly comparable to what happened in the US. Yes, Canadian personal debt is at an all-time high but it isn't a house of cards like the US situation.


metro man
said

Are they trying to get back investors who opted out of stock and into real estate by crying wolf??


BD Calgary
said

Here we go....

These so-called experts say things like this and often create the very issue they were "warning" us about. It's not the general view but why the need to inflict negative news.

People here on the news that we are heasded for a recession, they bunker down and, lo and behold, before long, we're in a recession.

The media are way beyond their responsibilities in reporting these "thoughts".


Bryce Code
said

With that kind of analysis, I can see why Merrill Lynch needed financial rescue in the U.S.. Unlike our friends to the South, where some mortgages were taken out for an amount greater (up to 25% more) than the value of the house, due to the deductibility of interest, that is not the case in Canada. Plus, with the required downpayments, there are very few in Canada who have negative equity in their homes. Lastly, many in the US did not read the small print and were not told that their payments rise as interest rates rise without the ability to lock-in the payments, thus their inability to pay.


JB
said

What a shock, ever wonder how someone making $15/hr can afford to have a $250000.00 mortgage and a new SUV in the drive way? I've been expecting this for a while.


Bill
said

It already has slowed down...........as far a crashing I think not. At least we have rules to be followed in Canada in order to get a mortgage.


James
said

Okay now, is this an attempt by Merrill Lynch to take the focus off the US or is there some truth to this. I have a mortgage and other debt by the Royal bank. Does this mean that the Royal Bank is as insolvent as the US banks. I believe my martgage is insured with CMHC, a federal agency, so I assume I am protected. Am I wrong? In this day and era, you just can't tell.


PCD
said

Seems like Merrill lynch wants to create a crisis with its fearmongering. The Harper government put caps on the 40 year mortgages to prevent this kind of crisis. Furthermore, we never did the sub-prime or interest-only mortgages that the US lenders got into.

Canadians are greedy and some have over-extended themselves, but not anywhere near the extent Americans did. Any crisis that happens will be a result of job losses for people who live paycheque to paycheque.

I don't live that way so I'm not worried.


Mandosa in Sarnia, Ontario
said

Absolutely. Although not as bad as the US deal, Canadians likewise have been buying and building homes that they can not afford. And the first slight hiccup to their income will leave their month to month budgets in crisis.
I got my first mortgage about 5 years ago, and i could not believe the amount of money the bank would have lent me towards a house purchase. I took about 1/4 of what they were offering to buy an average house which suits me just fine.


Tori
said

The naysayers would love to see Canada fall apart like the US.

How can so many economist be saying we will weather the storm while Merrill Lynch predicts gloom and doom? Typical American response, they surely would hate to see Canada doing better than they....

Well we are.


ET
said

...and it will most likely start in Southern Ontario because the manufacturing sector doesn't seem exist as far as Stephen Harper is concerned. But don't worry, Oilberta's gonna be fine!


Nick T
said

Oh great, just what anyone wants to hear. What's their proof of this statement? Seriously, why make such an assinine comment to an already shaky group of investors. By saying stuff like this, they only fuel the problem they are stating is going to happen.

I think all these economists should stop making statements like this without hardcore proof. And the news agencies should stop reporting it until said proof is shown.


Chuck
said

There are only a few major cities in Canada where housing prices are inflated.

The view for most Canadians is that as long as they have a job they will keep paying their mortgage. Additionally, the percentage of Canadians with a variable rate mortgage is much lower than in the US. The payment in Canada is based on a 3-5 year term in many instances so the change in variable rates won't have the same impact here in Canada.

We're fine. That is not to say that people are over extended.


majere magi
said

I can hardly wait for the meltdown. I have been in a 1 bed apt saving money for just this occasion. Anybody who did not see this coming is blissfully ignorant of simple economics. A little bit of reading instead of watching tv is all it takes.
In Welland, St Cats, Niagara, with John Deere closing and 700 jobs gone will sure help.
Maybe next summer its time to go bargain house hunting.
cheers:) majere


Roger T
said

Crash and Burn, there is no avoiding it. We're too much depended on the US, our oil & raw materials will not last forever.

It's only a matter of time before it hit ALL CANADIANS hard finanacially. If & when you read comments from the bank or political heads, it's really to calm fears and consumer confidence. It's all hidden away to keep the country going while they are working away in the back end to fix things.

WE ARE IN A RECESSION!

SAVING COMES BEFORE THE ECONOMY!


Sherry
said

I agree ... house prices have no reason to be what they are. It's all speculation that made prices go up. Personally I can't wait as I have cash to pick up the deals that are coming.


RobO
said

Oh no, now that the US is heading down the creek without a padle, they have to come north to bring there fear of it happening here. Only goes to prove that the US is willing to bring down other nations ecomonies. Just another scare tactic to keep the people worried. Heck I would evene trust these people because they are paid to make such bold statements. Maybe they should say oil market is going back to 75.00 a barrel....Dreaming I guess.


Joel
said

It's hard to take anything these so called reputable companies say at face value. Finding a crystal ball would be more accurate. :)


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