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U.S.-style meltdown won't happen here: Harper
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CTV.ca News Staff
Date: Wed. Sep. 24 2008 8:07 PM ET
Conservative Leader Stephen Harper is dismissing dire predictions of a U.S. style financial meltdown here in Canada.
In response to the Merrill Lynch report that suggests the housing market here is just as stressed as its U.S. counterpart, Harper said Canada's economy is still one of the most robust among industrialized, Western nations.
Despite a slowing Canadian economy, Harper said a collapse like the one occurring in the U.S. simply won't happen.
"We are taking steps to show Canadians and show international investors that this is a strong place to do business, and a well-run country with strong balance sheets of governments, households and financial institutions,' Harper said.
Earlier this week, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty told CTV's Question Period that Canadians can "rest assured our banks are solid."
He said the banking crisis in the U.S. is a concern for the global economy, but Canada has taken steps to make protect its financial sector.
Dire report
Economists at Merrill Lynch -- one of the world's most respected financial firms -- said in the report that Canadian households have "been running a larger financial deficit than households in either the U.S. or the U.K."
"After forty years of net saving, Canadian households moved into sustained deficit in 2002," David Wolf and Carolyn Kwan wrote in a report issued by Merrill Lynch's Canadian division.
The firm's data implies that the Canadian household sector is now overextending itself "as much as the U.S. or U.K. ever did."
Canadians' household net borrowing was 6.3 per cent of disposable income in 2007. That's more debt than households in Britain and close to the peak of the U.S. shortfall, just before the subprime mortgage crisis erupted in 2005.
The Merrill Lynch report says the market view that Canada's housing and credit markets are not going to "crack" like they have in the U.S. may be wrong.
"We fear, however, that it may simply be a matter of time. The clear 'tipping point' in the U.S. was the emergence of falling house prices in the summer of 2006, kicking off the vicious circles that have brought the financial system and the wider economy to the brink," the report said.
"We're just now starting to see house prices fall in Canada, and sharp rises in unsold home inventories increasingly imply that this will not be a transitory phenomenon."
Economist Don Drummond of TD Bank told CTV's Mike Duffy Live on Wednesday that Canada isn't destined to follow the U.S. into a housing meltdown.
"There are just so many things that are different. First of all we have hardly any sub-prime mortgages in Canada," he said. "By law, if you don't have a large down payment on a home in Canada, then half that mortgage has to be insured, so we don't have the financial underpinnings."
Drummond says he expects to see housing prices across the country "flatten out" over a period of time.
"We will see some housing price declines, concentrated in the west," said Drummond. "These aren't going to be the 50% price rollbacks on houses that we've experienced in Calgary and Florida we just did not have the ... lack of discipline in the mortgage that got them into that problem."
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Graham
said
ANSWER: The sub-prime mortgage lender wears a suit.
Igor ON
said
SPEND LESS THAN YOU MAKE!
SPEND LESS THAN YOU MAKE!
SPEND LESS THAN YOU MAKE!
SPEND LESS THAN YOU MAKE!
SPEND LESS THAN YOU MAKE!
SPEND LESS THAN YOU MAKE!
SPEND LESS THAN YOU MAKE!
SPEND LESS THAN YOU MAKE!
SPEND LESS THAN YOU MAKE!
Bill
said
Russell Welland
said
As for everyone 'saving' and waiting for housing prices in Toronto to drop better not hold their breath. Go buy a nice piece of land up in Vaughn, cause even with a recession it's all you're going to be able to afford.
Meanwhile there is a real crisis in Canada - our transportation situation! Sad excuses for public transit in all our major cities combined with a commuter society and rising gas prices = infrastructure meltdown.
Krystal Ball
said
If people are smart, they'll spend money NOW to fix up their home or the ones they're about to buy. I'll bet my bottom dollar that it's going to cost plenty more to do it in a year from now, for sure.
David #1
said
Mike D
said
jeff
said
Dave from Toronto
said
Mr. Harper...can we have that promise in writing?
Home Owner
said
(chuckles)
And the neo-CONS are trashing Layton.
HAAHAAHAHAHAAAA
This is the laugh I needed today.
A_B_C
Prof. Pye Chartt
said
Talk about throwing the baby out with the bath water.
The collapse of American mortgage banking and the overall real estate market is rooted in the government's legislative and statutory desire to channel the flow of mortgages to as many people as possible (and back them up), while maintaining no control of those institutions who write and package the loans.
This isn't Capitalism, people; it's Capitalism with a fork stuck in its side...and it doesn't work.
Markets work best when they're free, and when the government messes with natural economic checks and balances that inherently exist, things go for a damaging spin...and that's what we're witnessing now.
The answer isn't Socialism, folks. Capitalism is the reason you can sit in a safe, comfortable space, behind your electronic computing device, and tap out an anti-capitalist rant; instead of sitting on the cold floor of a cave and scratching something onto the wall with a sharp rock and stained stick.
Steve
said
John
said
Mike
said
John
said
Edwin
said
The Wall Street Pirates are presently engaged in bringing Fascism to America and they would just love to see a repeat performance in Canada.
Steve
said
It makes me wonder what crap they are trying to pull. Of course we do have some over extended. We do have a housing market that is overpriced in some areas, but most borrowers just got themselves into a home. Where some were buying and selling, and may get caught holding the quick loss on thier previously quick money. Tough on them, they were the ones who drove the price up. Just like the stock market correction was caused by wheeler n dealers, and Ma n Pa mutual holders will pay that that loss. I still think Mutuals should not be allowed for RRSP's ... how is it a retirement savings plan, when you loose money on it? I just got in and took a nice loss, it will take years to make it back... I am so not impressed .. I would do better if I had left it in my .03% bank account (yes point oh three %)
Maps Onburt
said
MikeD
said
Stop spending recklessly, sell off real estate "investments" and gas guzzlers, pay off high interest debt NOW, and put a little aside for a rainy day.
Do it NOW!!!
DM, Richmond.
said
The prices haven't fallen yet, but my gosh there are a lot of places to choose from now.
And isn't that what initiated the US market crash, oversupply?
Shane Prpich
said
quion97
said
Paul out West
said
Tom
said
Ian- AB
said
Prof. Pye Chartt
said
Really? (Didn't they have to write down around $40B worth of toxic debt this past year, and were just sold?) Anyway, I seem to recall Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns being referred to the same way.
Spare me the headline-grabbing doom and gloom. I'll stick to my own instincts, until somebody can come up with something that takes into account the fundamental differences in our banking/mortgage industry and real estate markets.
Jess D
said
John
said
Paul - Orillia
said
Canadians must be really dumb to beleive the all mighty Harper on everything he says.
Just foolish.
rottin ralphie
said
Arthur
said
that permits for new home construction has recently contracted by about 33%. Mls.ca listings in many areas are showing home owners weekly lowering their prices in desirable locations. So what's not to believe? Uncertainty will drive the situation.
Jordan
said
Mike
said
Scott
said
Any the fear mongers that are predicting a collapse of the Canadian economy... its purely wishful thinking.
We have a balanced budget and have insulated ourselves quite well from the problems in the States.
Shaun
said
bobmac
said
Shaun
said
Fraser
said
The meltdown in the U.S. is more far reaching than many realize. We are all going to see an overhaul in the banking system like none other we have witnessed in history. It may not be optimum either. Time will tell. My prediction is that there will be a lot less small banks around but maybe that was the whole plan all along??
Brian
said
GG
said
bruno
said
deepak , calgary
said
james
said
Like anyone is going to believe anything an American or American company says. They have zero credibility and this report is simply trying to say "all you guys are as bad as us".
Anyone who has lived in the US for more than a day knows their whole economy is built on credit and false optimism. It as simply collapsed.
Americans are petroleum whores. So long as they need oil, the Canadian economy will do just fine. We excel in resources, manufacturing, innovation, education, and sound fiscal management.
socialist state
said
I look forward to the housing crunch I may not make as big a profit off my house when i go to sell it but I'll get the house i want with an acreage, for cheap.
Danny
said
Tim Devine
said
Calgarian
said
What? Alberta house prices are very cheap? What are you comparing this too, downtown Vancouver? Very cheap? If it's so cheap, start buying!!!
Wages High? Only in one sector - oil/gas and oil/gas services, most of us can't even keep up to inflation in Alberta (which has the highest inflation numbers in Canada).
Sometimes I'm embarrassed to be an Albertan, we are so self centered, and some of us have the gall to call Toronto the centre of the Universe.
John
said
~JoeNorthAmerican~
said
Buba
said
Yeah and that's why Flaherty was running around saying "Don't invest in Ontario"
BB in B.C.
said
steve mcg
said
Mark from Brampton
said
The US government has been expanding it's money supply at an enormous rate. The government created Fannie and Freddie to help people who wouldn't normally be able to afford homes, buy them (sub-prime). THAT is what caused the problem.
In a natural market, where credit is not incredibly easy for banks to obtain, banks would be more selective in who they lend to.
Don't be fooled by people saying capitalism is the problem, when in fact it is the answer.
Gary
said
majere magi
said
My wife nor I can lose our jobs. We are both guarrenteed approx 44k per year due to Military insurance and disability. So let the housing bubble burst and I will buy a nice cheap bungalow. Oh yea I am only 45.
cheers :) majere
T in Ottawa
said
Ya, I call that service charges.
stephen calgary
said
very simple remedy, save money, dont sell your house for less then what you are buying for...
once people realize that we control the housing market we can dictate supply/demand. wait to sell your home once the inventory is down....
alberta will be fine,house prices are very cheap, and wages are high.
people always need a house over their heads, so those people who did the 40yr mortgages will lose their home, then they will need to find housing elsewhere, ie: rent those other properites that investors buy for the long run, not the short gain
Gary
said
JMH Windsor ON
said
How can we teach responsibility when we our selves are living on credit driving our new fancy care equipped with DVG players living in houses the size of castles that some will never be pay off and be mortgage free?
We all have way more than we need.
GP
said
Yes the housing market is going into a downturn. No it will not be a crash like in the US because the ability to pay off debt by truly qualified mortgage holders here in Canada is very good.
Somebody needs to kick these fools in the butt for such a ridiculously myopic prospective.
my take on this
said
Harper is Robin Hoodwinked, he gives to the rich and takes away from the poor.
Canada be afraid, be very afraid. Four years is a very long time with a conservative majority.
VIP
said
BadP
said
Wes
said
Merrill Lynch economists say
Wasn't Merrill Lynch one of those bailed out firms?
Yea ok buddy. Come visit Canada before you comment on us.
AJ
said
harbinger of doom
said
AM
said
Katie
said
A drop in the sale prices would be GREAT for my husband and I right about now!
Debbie
said
Patricia
said
Allan
said
Home-builder employee at risk
said
I fear that I will lose my job but if I end up lucky winner and kept my job during massive collaspe in housing market. I guess it is best time for me to buy a SEVERLY REDUCED house in this spring.
Either way, it's still not good for anyone else.
DO SOMETHING! STOP LETTING MARKET KEEP GOING DOWN!... IT IS OBVIOUS THAT WE DO CONTROL MARKET EH? STAND UP FOR CANADA! I'm parking my vote with Liberal this time as I know Carbon Tax will enlarge my company and give a much-needed boost to housing insdrustry!
Sick of worried for my life as I know I am unable to otbain employment at somewhere if I lose my job!
Shane Prpich
said
To all the greedy Albertans that ruined the housing market here. I hope you lose your shirt!
Bring on the recession.. my rent needs to go down!
tim-j - ottawa
said
Charles N
said
UNREGULATED capitalism has been FORCEFULLY BLUDGEONED with a razor-studded club. REGULATED capitalism MIGHT be able to survive (if we refrain from destroying the conditions that allow it to flourish).
There is a problem with PURE ideology, whether socialist, capitalist, or whatever. We need to get on with balanced measures that avoid the worst of extremes.
What I'm saying is it's time to call Harper's bluff.
cosmo
said
tony g
said
That way he gets another 5 years before the electorate discover the truth.
Don Burbidge
said
Ron_Wetaskiwin
said
There is an easy way to solve this problem. Just do not sell your home for less than what you paid for it….
Boyd
said
stephen
said
Kevin in Van
said
Calgarian
said
Are you afraid that Harper may be a little naive? "I don't accept that conclusion, not at all," Harper told reporters on tour in British Columbia in regards to Merrill Lynch's report. I think these words will come back to haunt him.
Exiled Canadian
said
Jay and GG,
So two people from a U.S.-based financial institution who wrote this report against hundreds of analysts with a differing view. Hmmmm who should I believe? The two "experts" from M-L or hundreds of other experts from other institutions? That's not bashing, that's reviewing all points of view on the matter, not just the one that agrees with a "Conservatives are Evil" point-of-view.
Facts are facts, the fiasco that occurred in the U.S. did not take place in Canada or certainly nowhere on the same scale. If people took out loans they couldn't afford and are now paying the price for their financial irresponsibility, that's too bad. But when you play roulette with your money, there are two possible outcomes: you win or you lose.
No one forced these people to make that gamble. They gambled. They lost.
other factors in us ottawa
said
carrie in Canada
said
This is inevitable. Unlike the majority of people we know, we set ourselves up for this day by NOT buying RV's, fancy SUV's, bought a home 10 years back that was modest and have not 'upgraded'. We all want want want NOW.
Now the remaining few will be able to get great deals from people's need for greed & high lifestyle. If you end up in bankruptcy, go blame the person in the mirror. We could all live a lifestyle within our means but most don't.
dan
said
These are respected economists that are saying what Garth Turner has been going across the country saying for over a year - no down payment, 40 year mortgages and a housing market that quickly spiked in value is a recipe for problems in a downturn.
It will not be the same as in the US but it is still a real a problem when people have upside down mortgages - a house worth less than the mortgage.
Merrill Lynch is not being alarmist, they are being prudent to wake people up.
Winny
said
Are you not paying attention to what is happening in the US. Housing Meltdown == Economy Collapse == you will lose your job == no home for you. It is surprising how simplistic some people are.
Tim
said
I think housing prices may go down in depressed areas like Windsor and other industrial cities too.
For the most part, I hope it is isolated to those areas and I hope the banks can handle it without taxpayer input.
roy
said
TD
said
Winnipeg
said
James
said
Or perhaps they're assuming that the Canadian banks lent out in the same fashion as the US banks, which they haven't.
Not a trustworthy analysis at all, they're just trying to spread the pain.
David
said
debbie ellison
said
Moe
said
Jonathan
said
Michelle
said
Nick S
said
Colin
said
Full of BS
said
I knew when the USA first starting giving mortgages to people who couldn't qualify under your own existing rules a mortgage that would reset it's interest rate to almost double the introductory rate - the people wouldn't be able to make the increased payments... DUH
Canadians - Don't listen to financial analysts as every one of them I ever meet couldn't predict rain if it was falling on their own heads.
Jess
said
Marco
said
Rather, ask yourself what is really behind the boom in the past 10 years.
The median family income in the past 7 years actually went down. Normally, house price appreciation is a result of increasing family wealth.
We had historically low interest rate, which rendered cheap money, and created a credit culture where real personal wealth became irelevant. Not any more. It's payback time.
Reece
said
Ms. L.
said
-----
After seeing the disaster down south, I'm not convinced ANY bank is "solid".
But one thing is certain, in a recession, you better have a damn good secure job or two to keep up your mortgage. And a recession is looking likely as far as I can tell.
Potato
said
GRIM
said
Come on price correction - just not too severe please.
Josh
said
Fiscal Policies - The federal government did not allow the 50+ yr mortgages like those seen in the states. I like to think of that lending as second generation debt. Now we have reduced the max amortization to 35 and no more zero downs. These are great initiatives by the feds.
Our Banks - our banks were not stupid enough to lend their money for less than what they were getting it for. Don't we all wish we could have got a mortgage rate less than Bank of Canada's rate.
Some complain that there isn't more choice for banking in Canada, however, I don't think many will be complaining when our banks stay strong and all the banks in the states collapse.
iphone u yah
said
The U.S. tax system encourages people to take on more debt with the ridiculous scheme of deducting mortgage interest from your taxes. No wonder alot of dumb Americans used their house as a money machine.
For these reasons and other ones, I highly doubt we'd have the same meltdown in Canada.
Joe, Calgary
said
Maggie West
said
The economic downturn in Ontario may have prompted Merrill Lynch to make this assessment. Canada is not just Ontario. We seem to be doing fine out west (Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta and BC). We have seen a slow-down in the housing market, but this is normal -- the market has a tendency to correct itself.
So, where we find overinflated prices in the west, hopefully the market will correct itself and bring down prices (but not too dramatically).
Kevin in T.O.
said
My guess is somewhere in the middle. What I do believe is that many Torontonians have over extended themselves and won't be able to afford their mortgage payments. This will begin the housing market correction and powers of sale will be on the rise. Merrill is right here but it won't be the same level as the US where anyone with a pulse got a 95% mortgage.
DC in AB
said
We will not have the same housing crunch as we did not buy in to the sub-prime mortgage fiasco that the Americans got themselves into. We will survive. We are not tied to the US economy like we were in the 80's and early 90's.
Mary Ewen
said
But to expect record bankrupties,as seen from the sub prime mortgages in the U.S. won't happen here.
Sub prime mortgages were never offered here in Canada,so the same scenario does not exist.
PBW
said
Here is one of the biggest investment companies in the world, that has problems keeping its own financial house in order, forecasting the same disaster for Canada.
What are they going to do - sell Canada short, just like the people who have been manipulating the US stock markets recently?
It has always bothered me, that: permitting someone to sell shares in a company that s/he does not own. By the same token I should be able to sell my neighbor's house. . . so that's what they plan! They'll sell off Canada, take the profits and then buy it up when the price has dropped sufficiently!
Vahan
said
Patrick
said
Boyd
said
OldeHippy
said
Jason in Kelowna
said
P. Schroper
said
Joe, Calgary
said
It doesn't take a degree in Economics to see that this will happen here. Take a look in most driveways, there is a greater number of high end vehicles (some cases 2 or 3) in driveways, high end Ski Boats, Quads, RV's bigger then my parents first home, people traveling to exotic locations at least once a year - not even mentioning the summer vacation homes, and large primary residence homes filled with all the latest gadgets. Where do you think this money is coming from? Salaries? No, from credit and credit lines, using our homes as collateral.
What will happen here when all the sudden our value of our homes drop even more than they have? What will happen to credit lines and Business loans? Yes, the economy will grind to a halt as more people and Businesses default on loans, employers will be forced to layoff to stay afloat. People will stop purchasing.
Canadians used to be good at saving for a rainy day, but alas we have become a 'ME - NOW' society just as down south.
S. Dorland
said
Stephan
said
Max in Vancouver
said
Top heavy beaurcratic style company with overpaid executives will prove to be their demise.
The housing market, financed by the banking industry, is solid in Canada. Stop spreading fear where there is none. The best way to make a fire grow is to fan it!
Whatever
said
lender
said
Sarah
said
For example the new law that prohibits new home buyer to make a purchase with "zero down". It might be harder to buy a house, but in the long run it's protecting those who can't really afford a house from problems down the road.
There's no question houses are more expensive than they should be.... but I think Canada's laws protect home buyers better, and the fact that we have fewer banks (in the US it seems every Tom Dick and Harry can own a bank) is what will prevent this "report" seriously.
Scott
said
I have been saying for years that the Canadian economy is the unstable deck of cards fueled by the speculators in all sectors of the financial frame work and promoted by our expert political system who as they will tell you---we don't make mistakes,---hold on to you're assets and be careful as I see the winds of tight credit and belt tightening blowing in from the south !
GG
said
Jay
said
Anyway...back on topic... I have no doubts there are a *lot* of Canadians that have been overextending themselves with the latest mortgages. People have been buying houses and condos left right and centre...add to that car payments, energy prices, the cost of living and there are many people living pay cheque to pay cheque. All it takes is a layoff...or even wage cut, and they wont' be able to afford the mortage payments.
I have to admit, I'm like some of the above that have saved a nest egg for when the housing prices go down. I don't think it will be as big of a dip as some above might be expecting, but nevertheless, it will allow me to buy house with a much smaller mortgage. Getting into a lot of debt is always a recipe for disaster IMO.
Dave in Surrey
said
I know people in Vancouver who are paying 70+% of their take home income to mortgage at interest rates around 4%... If we see a climb to 6% in the next year, then time for the renew, they will be looking at the 80+% of take home income...
Scary folks...
Denis from Toronto
said
brenda
said
Morons!
Adam
said
Ed
said
Dan
said
P.A.
said
Canadian banks are not making high risk loans, and as far as I know, no party is using the CMHC as their own piggy bank. If we get into trouble here it will only be because of high taxes, so it makes sense to vote for a government that is going to cut spending to extras like the arts rather than one that will throw money to any group it can buy votes from.
BB in B.C.
said
Hah
said
Remember just six months ago when our economy was too hot? Then inflation was a problem? Last week is was deflation? Now real estate??
They're awesome at predicting yesterday, but that's about it.
Just relax and go about your day...nothing you can do about things anyway.
Socialism is killing us
said
ASpenc
said
FCS
said
Well that's prettty inane. After all what would any of us have to be worried about right? Apparently Canada exists in a bubble where nothing can touch us. 250, 000 $ for your average home ? Oh yeah that not inflated at all. There is going to be a correction in this ridiculous market soon and it ain't gonna be pretty.
Mike - Calgary
said
so im ready for this fall.. cause I'll be scooping up my dream house shortly :)
it was only time!
Nanook
said
KC
said
Paul in Mississauga
said
The question in Canada is whether or not the institutions will collapse as in America. I doubt our better regulated institutions will suffer much but the econimic slowdown will see over-extended people lose their homes, and market values decline.
Is the headline of this article designed to scare people? "Meltdown?" I suspect 'market decline' is passe ...
MuskyBuck
said
I'm not sure if you've noticed dear banking folks but it's pretty much in stone that you're kind can't be trusted.
This basically means that most of what you say will go in one ear and out the other before anyone has a chance to 'click' on something else.
I doubt very much any sort of meltdown in Canada and that the story you've contrived will make any gains here in Canada....much to your chagrin I'm sure.
But do go ahead and keep trying, I'm sure when this fiasco is finished and done we can all have a good laugh about it.
As I'm sure we'll have plenty opportunity to sit down at the same board tables, as our banks will be owning your ass.
Kenny
said
The lack of such direct government intervention in the housing market here in Canada sets us apart form the US. We have a stronger, better regulated system here. Any "mortgage meltdown" in Canada will not be trigered by domestic policy or events. If it happens, it will be due to global financial woes and a spillover from gobal credit problems, and is unlikely to be as pronounced or prolonged as the crisis now being experienced in the US.
fred marcos
said
These institutions should be penalized and their employees sent to jail for breaking the laws.
We investors suffer the losses in the meantime.
beeman
said
metro man
said
BD Calgary
said
These so-called experts say things like this and often create the very issue they were "warning" us about. It's not the general view but why the need to inflict negative news.
People here on the news that we are heasded for a recession, they bunker down and, lo and behold, before long, we're in a recession.
The media are way beyond their responsibilities in reporting these "thoughts".
Bryce Code
said
JB
said
Bill
said
James
said
PCD
said
Canadians are greedy and some have over-extended themselves, but not anywhere near the extent Americans did. Any crisis that happens will be a result of job losses for people who live paycheque to paycheque.
I don't live that way so I'm not worried.
Mandosa in Sarnia, Ontario
said
I got my first mortgage about 5 years ago, and i could not believe the amount of money the bank would have lent me towards a house purchase. I took about 1/4 of what they were offering to buy an average house which suits me just fine.
Tori
said
How can so many economist be saying we will weather the storm while Merrill Lynch predicts gloom and doom? Typical American response, they surely would hate to see Canada doing better than they....
Well we are.
ET
said
Nick T
said
I think all these economists should stop making statements like this without hardcore proof. And the news agencies should stop reporting it until said proof is shown.
Chuck
said
The view for most Canadians is that as long as they have a job they will keep paying their mortgage. Additionally, the percentage of Canadians with a variable rate mortgage is much lower than in the US. The payment in Canada is based on a 3-5 year term in many instances so the change in variable rates won't have the same impact here in Canada.
We're fine. That is not to say that people are over extended.
majere magi
said
In Welland, St Cats, Niagara, with John Deere closing and 700 jobs gone will sure help.
Maybe next summer its time to go bargain house hunting.
cheers:) majere
Roger T
said
It's only a matter of time before it hit ALL CANADIANS hard finanacially. If & when you read comments from the bank or political heads, it's really to calm fears and consumer confidence. It's all hidden away to keep the country going while they are working away in the back end to fix things.
WE ARE IN A RECESSION!
SAVING COMES BEFORE THE ECONOMY!
Sherry
said
RobO
said
Joel
said