Quebecers are going to the polls on March 26, and for the first time since 1878, they may elect a minority government.

A Strategic Counsel poll conducted for CTV and The Globe and Mail put all three major parties -- the governing Liberals, the sovereigntist Parti Quebecois and the right-wing nationalist Action democratique du Quebec -- in a statistical tie.

The Liberals held a one-point lead over the PQ in that poll, conducted between March 21 and 22 (the margin of error is 3.1 percentage points):

• Liberals: 31 per cent
• PQ: 30 per cent
• ADQ: 28 per cent

While support in the polls hasn't necessarily translated into votes in the ballot box for the party of ADQ Leader Mario Dumont in previous Quebec provincial elections, observers think at least 12 seats are in reach. That would give the ADQ official party status -- a big win for it, whatever happens.

If Liberal Premier Jean Charest -- who many think has run a lacklustre campaign -- does go down to defeat, it will be the first time since the 1960s since a majority Quebec government hasn't won a second term.

In the April 14, 2003 provincial election, the Liberals won 76 of 125 seats. The PQ won 45 seats, and the ADQ won four (the current standings are Liberals 72; PQ 45; ADQ 5; Independent 1; and Vacant 2).

Charest, the federalist and one-time federal Progressive Conservative leader, has had a rocky ride in power.

"Quebecers are looking at this election as really a decision about whether to give Jean Charest a second mandate," Antonia Maioni, a McGill University professor, told CTV Newsnet.

For most of his mandate, Charest's government trailed the PQ in popularity. He has blamed some of his troubles in office on problems he inherited from the two-term PQ government he defeated, claiming it took his first mandate to deal with them.

Former PQ premier Bernard Landry, who led that government, abruptly quit in 2005 after receiving a 76.2 per cent vote of approval from PQ members.

That triggered a leadership race won by Andre Boisclair. The 40-year-old career politician -- who is openly gay, has admitted using cocaine and appeared in a Brokeback Mountain-style spoof on TV -- inherited a 16-point lead over the Liberals but has presided over its erosion.

However, he has run a solid campaign, with even critics like Landry giving him grudging respect.

Some of the issues and factors that might affect how the 5.5 million Quebecers eligible to vote might decide things in the voting booth.

Sovereignty

"The Parti Quebecois means wishful thinking. It means a return to division by another referendum, as soon as possible," Charest told about 2,500 party supporters in Quebec City on Feb. 17.

"My challenge is not only to win the next election, it's also to build trust with the people ... for Quebec to go for a referendum," Boisclair said on Sept. 9, 2006.

When he won the party's leadership on Nov. 15, 2005, Boisclair said: "Two things are clear for us now: First, in the next election campaign, the Parti Quebecois will seek a mandate to hold a referendum on Quebec sovereignty as soon as possible. And we will present Quebecers with a plan to give them a country."

However, when Boisclair released his party's platform on Feb. 24, the word "referendum" didn't appear. Instead, the PQ promised a "public consultation" on Quebec sovereignty. Polls indicate about two-thirds of Quebecers don't want another referendum.

Sovereignty is not on the front burner for Quebecers.

A poll conducted in Quebec by Montreal-based CROP in the wake of the Jan. 23, 2006 federal election found that 58 per cent of respondents would vote to keep Quebec part of Canada.

In comparison, an April 2005 poll by Leger Marketing -- a time when the Gomery inquiry into the federal Liberal sponsorship scandal was at its peak -- found 54 per cent of Quebecers favouring sovereignty.

The sovereignty issue has hurt Charest. He was seen to make a gaffe when he declared Quebec would be "divisible" after a vote for sovereignty. Quebec premiers have traditionally stood up for the integrity of the province's boundaries.

Quebec has a certain proportion of hardcore sovereigntists, but it also has "soft nationalists" who can occasionally lean towards sovereignty. Prime Minister Stephen Harper has taken steps to satisfy the latter. He has given Quebec a voice with the international agency UNESCO, and introduced a motion in late November to have the Quebecois declared a nation within a united Canada.

Dumont has said his party wants more "autonomie" for Quebec. "A leading French dictionary gives three definitions: autonomy, independence, self-government,"  Globe and Mail columnist Jeffrey Simpson wrote on March 23. Simpson said the word's ambiguity allowed people to read whatever they wanted into it.

In the late stages of the campaign, both Charest and Dumont were reaching out to disaffected sovereigntists.

Other key issues

Charest has promised to:

• Deliver an extra $250 million per year in tax cuts over the next five years (he started in the Feb. 20 provincial budget),
• Add 20,000 spaces to Quebec's $7 per day daycare program (the Charest government raised the fees by $2 per day),
• Add 1,500 doctors and guarantee surgery within six months, and
• Pursue the development of clean energy for export.

The PQ saw the fiscal imbalance, Kyoto and education as key issues. They attacked the Liberal record on health care.

Charest has said he will raise tuition fees in the province. Boisclair has promised to maintain the freeze, which has been in place since 1994.

The March surprise?

The federal budget was delivered on March 19. A total of $2.3 billion was directed to Quebec.

"He need(ed) Ottawa to come through ... so he can go back to Quebecers and say, 'I have been able to fix the fiscal imbalance, I am a good leader for Quebec, I can get what we need from Ottawa, we don't have to vote for a sovereigntist party, we can do this within the federation," Maioni said.

In a move that some saw as desperation, Charest announced in the budget's wake that he would cut taxes by another $700 million.

While Harper would want to see a federalist ally in power, he also aims to grow his own base in Quebec, where he won an unexpected 10 seats in the 2006 federal election.

If Charest defeats the provincial sovereigntists, supporters of the federal Bloc Quebecois might be demoralized, creating an opening for Harper's Conservatives.

"(Harper) would have to look at going to an election pretty quickly to take advantage of the disarray in the soverigntist tent," political commentator L. Ian McDonald told CTV's Question Period.

At this point, however, a PQ minority is possible, given Liberal weakness among francophones.

The ADQ wild card

The ADQ, led by Mario Dumont, has been the surprise of the campaign.

He has argued for the drafting of a Quebec constitution that would set "reasonable limits" on accommodating minorities.

There have been minor incidents in Montreal, but the issue heated into a national story when the small, rural town of Herouxville published a "code of conduct" that appeared to be aimed at Muslims.

A late campaign controversy involved whether Muslim women could wear veils when they went to vote.

Dumont has also proposed policies designed to increase the size of Quebec families and taken his populist message to small-town and rural Quebec.

"Quebecers have had enough of Liberal immobility and Pequiste utopianism. They want things to change in Quebec," the party said in a statement issued on Feb. 18.

Maioni has said while Dumont is personally popular, "he doesn't have much of a party behind him."

The ADQ has had to fire a candidate who made sexist statements. Dumont himself came under fire for making a misleading allegation during the March 13 leadership debate.

TVA reporter Alexis Deschenes told Question Period he's noticed that Dumont's small campaign team appeared to be tiring this last week, and wasn't responding quickly to emerging issues. Some polls suggest the ADQ may have peaked already, he said.

Despite that, pollster Christian Bourque of Leger Marketing told The Canadian Press:  "Dumont has already won."

With files from The Canadian Press