They say you're known by the friends you keep.

To the extent that the principle applies to the Liberal leadership convention, Michael Ignatieff seems to have a lot of important friends. He leads all other candidates in terms of ex-officio (senators, MPs, and various party officials) and other expressions of support.  And he has the most first-ballot support.

Will that mean he'll prevail on Saturday? Maybe not.

Many prominent people in the party flocked to him early on because Ignatieff looked liked a winner, pollster Allan Gregg of The Strategic Counsel told CTV's Question Period on Sunday.

Ignatieff gave a rousing speech at the Liberal Party's 2005 policy convention. Ever since, Gregg said, "there have been a number of individuals who have said, 'this is the chosen one ... this is the kind of Trudeau-esque figure we've been waiting for'."

That early start gave the novice politician an advantage in fundraising and organization.

Candidate support metrics

Michael Ignatieff: Supporters in caucus: 49 1st ballot delegates: 1,377 Contributions: $1.04 million Bob Rae: Supporters in caucus: 29 1st ballot delegates: 943 Contributions: $993,000 Gerard Kennedy: Supporters in caucus: 19 1st ballot delegates: 820 Contributions: $423,000 Stephane Dion: Supporters in caucus: 20 1st ballot delegates: 753 Contributions: $274,000 Ken Dryden: Supporters in caucus: 12 1st ballot delegates: 238 Contributions: $188,842 Joe Volpe: Supporters in caucus: 5 1st ballot delegates: 226 Contributions: $242,000 Scott Brison: Supporters in caucus: 10 1st ballot delegates: 181 Contributions: $328,000 Martha Hall Findlay: Supporters in caucus: 0 1st ballot delegates: 46 Contributions: $111,000

Ignatieff has received just over $1 million in contributions, compared to $993,000 for former Ontario Premier Bob Rae, who is running second in first-ballot support.

But the Ignatieff supporters who loved their candidate in the spring might not necessarily support him on the second ballot, given recent gaffes.

For example, when Ignatieff called Israel's bombing of the Lebanese village a war crime (29 civilians died), his Toronto co-chair Susan Kadis quit and swung her support to Bob Rae.

Sen. David Smith, Ignatieff's co-chair, called Ignatieff's remark "unfortunate."

Smith is a veteran Liberal operator (during the last election, former Conservative MP John Reynolds described him as being part of the Liberals' A Team).

A Toronto Star article noted that Ignatieff has the support of about 230 of about 850 ex-officio delegates. Many of those owe Smith some favours. And in politics as in life, one hand washes the other.

However, Bob Rae has some influential Liberal friends of his own: His brother John is running his campaign.

The Power Corp. executive helped run campaigns for Jean Chretien, who won three straight majorities from 1993 to 2000.

In addition, he's got deep pockets: John loaned Bob $750,000. Bob runs second to Ignatieff in terms of public endorsements.

Bob Rae, who only took out a Liberal membership shortly before he announced his candidacy, had been a longtime member of the NDP. He was NDP premier of Ontario and had been a federal NDP MP.

Rae has attracted a mixed welcome into the party. Former Ontario premier David Peterson, whose Liberal government was defeated by Rae in 1990, said last spring: "It's a dilemma for a tremendous number of people in the party." Peterson is serving as an honorary co-chair for Ignatieff.

However, after they dropped out, former leadership candidates John Godfrey, Hedy Fry, Carolyn Bennett and Maurizio Bevilacqua endorsed Rae.

On Tuesday, Ralph Goodale, one of the most respected Liberal MPs, publicly endorsed Rae.

"I believe Bob has the experience and the skills necessary to confront and to replace the Stephen Harper government. Stopping the neo-conservative damage being done to the fabric of Canada is vitally important to the future of this country," Goodale said.

After Goodale's announcement, Ignatieff said: "I've got more support in caucus than any other candidate.'' Thirty-nine MPs and 10 senators have endorsed him.
 
The other two leaders in the delegate count haven't attracted much high-profile support from party establishment members.

Former Ontario cabinet minister Gerard Kennedy, who is in third place with first-ballot support, got a recent nod from Justin Trudeau. While Trudeau isn't a delegate, his voice carries some weight with younger Liberals. Sergio Marchi, a former cabinet minister, endorsed Kennedy on Wednesday over the candidate's stand on the Quebec nationhood issue. Kennedy has also earned support from some up-and-coming young MPs like Mark Holland, who is chairing the candidate's Ontario campaign.

Former federal cabinet minister Stephane Dion, the fourth-place candidate, hasn't had any endorsements from major party figures lately. However, some newspapers have editorially endorsed him, including The Globe and Mail and The Toronto Sun. Meanwhile, the Toronto Star endorsed Bob Rae on Wednesday.

Do media endorsements matter?

"Yes, yes, yes, because the delegates are highly educated, politically smart and deliberating," Stephen Clarkson, author of The Big Red Machine: Why the Liberal Party Dominates Canadian Politics, told CTV.ca.

Editorials have more impact in a leadership campaign than in a general election because delegates are more intensely interested in politics and are more avid news consumers than the general population, he said.

"The Dion campaign is going to make sure everybody's read (the Globe and Mail editorial) five times before they get to vote," he said.

When the showdown actually starts, other major factors become important, including organizational strength at the convention and intangibles like the impact of the candidates' speeches on Friday, Gregg said Tuesday on CTV Newsnet's Mike Duffy Live.

"A turning event at the convention could change things dramatically."

Those candidates who fail to impress may find that as the Liberals search for someone who will make them a winner again, friendship is a fair-weather thing.