OTTAWA — The dramatic denouement of the nine-month Liberal leadership marathon comes down to three simple numbers: Eight, four and one.

Eight contenders will play a role in determining who is chosen to succeed Paul Martin during multiple ballots on Saturday. Only four have a plausible shot at winning. Only one will take the prize, but which one is a complicated calculation.

In this fluid contest, a host of factors will make a difference: turnout, organization, pre-vote speeches by the candidates, alliances or antipathies between the various camps, perceptions of momentum and winnability.

And there's the one more crucial determinant: Who will be in fourth place, once the also-rans who place fifth through eighth are dropped off the ballot?

If Stephane Dion is fourth, and thus becomes the next candidate to be forced off, the stage will be set for an eventual head-to-head duel between front-runner Michael Ignatieff and second-place Bob Rae. Gerard Kennedy, if he's third, could theoretically stage a come-from-behind victory but he'd more likely end up playing king-maker between Ignatieff and Rae.

On the other hand, if Kennedy is in fourth going into the showdown phase of the convention, the outcome becomes more unpredictable.

That's because polls suggest that Dion is the most popular second choices among delegates once their own favourite is out. So a third-place Dion could have a real chance to leapfrog over Rae and Ignatieff to claim the crown.

Such is Dion's potential threat that some party insiders predict Ignatieff and Rae will actually "loan'' some of their votes to Kennedy in the early going to ensure he stays ahead of the lone Quebec candidate. But both of the top two will have to be careful, since they need a strong showing of their own on the first ballot. That means loaning votes could be a risky business.

Heading into the Montreal convention, Ignatieff has the support of about 30 per cent of some 4,400 delegates elected at the end of September, to Rae's 20 per cent, Kennedy's almost 18 per cent and Dion's 16 per cent. The other four contenders -- Joe Volpe, Ken Dryden, Scott Brison and Martha Hall Findlay -- each have less than five per cent.

Those numbers could change at the convention, once the votes of some 880 ex-officio delegates and 104 undeclared delegates are added into the mix. Ignatieff has scooped up the biggest share of ex-officios, but he doesn't appear to have captured enough to significantly boost his overall percentage.

More critical will be the ability of each camp to get its delegates to the convention. On that score, insiders predict that Dion, who has the weakest organization of the top four, could be at a disadvantage.

The challenge will be even greater for the bottom four candidates, whose delegates may decide there's little point spending up to $3,000 to attend a convention their favourite can't possibly win. The lower their turnout, the less influence they'll have on the outcome.

Only the last-place finisher on each ballot is required to withdraw from the race, with Hall Findlay likely to be the first to go. Insiders with the Volpe, Dryden and Brison camps say their candidates all intend to stay for at least the second ballot, hoping to improve their standing.

But strategists for the top four predict delegates will begin abandoning the bottom four immediately, forcing them all to drop out after the first ballot or face humiliation.

Where the bottom four throw their personal support will help create momentum for one or more of the top contestants. But will their combined 600 delegates follow their lead?

Insiders predict most delegates, with the possible exception of Volpe's, will be stubbornly independent and open to persuasion. Camps with good delegate tracking and "buddy'' systems to cajole newly released delegates will therefore have an edge.

Given all the variables, predicting the winner is a mug's game. More instructive is an assessment of the top four candidates' chances and their game plans.

MICHAEL IGNATIEFF

The acclaimed academic heads to Montreal with the strongest campaign organization. An impressive speaker, he could wow delegates with a powerful pre-vote speech Friday night, and his organizational edge should help in arm-twisting delegates to his side. The fact that he's captured the support of 39 MPs, almost four times more than any other candidate, could give him added pull on the convention floor.

Nevertheless, there are some Liberals who balk at his support for Canada's mission in Afghanistan and recognition of Quebec as a nation. His repeated campaign stumbles, his 30-year absence from Canada, his previous support for the Iraq war, and his political inexperience are all potential detriments.

None of his rivals, with the possible exception of Brison, is likely to offer personal support to Ignatieff. But his team has been working overtime to make alliances with individual delegates and is confident Ignatieff will gain a good share of each drop-out's supporters.

His strategists are particularly hopeful they'll scoop up most of Kennedy's Ontario delegates, believing they will want to stop Rae because of his checkered history as Ontario NDP premier from 1990-95. And they think they can capture most of Dion's Quebec delegates.

BOB RAE

The most polished performer of the lot, Rae too should do well in the pre-vote speeches. He'll also bring a strong campaign organization, headed by his brother, John Rae, the brains behind Jean Chretien's 1990 leadership victory and three subsequent election wins.

The veteran politico has run a cautious, virtually error-free campaign and heads into the convention buoyed by a series of polls suggesting the Liberals would fare best in a general election with him at the helm.

But Rae's dismal economic record as Ontario premier and his Johnny-come-lately status in the party _ he took out a Liberal membership just before declaring his candidacy _ could limit his growth potential.

He could also be hurt by his opposition to the Quebec nation resolution, depending on how that drama plays out at the convention.

His team nevertheless hopes to pick up endorsements from at least two of the bottom four, most likely Hall Findlay and Volpe, and a good chunk of Brison's and Dryden's delegates.

Rae strategists also contend Dion simply has too much ground to make up to catch the front-runners and will ultimately throw in his lot with Rae rather than Ignatieff.

STEPHANE DION

The earnest former professor has surprised Liberals with his spirited campaign and political savvy, but Dion is hampered by a relatively weak organization, his sometimes awkward English and by resistance within the party to electing a third consecutive leader from Quebec.

His opposition to the Quebec nation resolution has also cost him support in his home province, where he's viewed with some disdain for his uncompromising stand against separatism. But his strategists insist the Quebec controversy has played both ways, with Dion picking up some Ignatieff defectors in the rest of the country.

Dion's first challenge is to overtake Kennedy, and to do that his team reckons he'd need at least one of the bottom four candidates, most likely Dryden, to come his way with a most of his delegates. Alternatively, he'd need a big chunk of undeclared and ex-officio delegates to swing to him.

Ideally, his strategists would like to see the bottom four drop off one by one, giving Dion time to build momentum and attract delegates from the other top contenders once they're free to switch allegiance.

If he manages to surpass Kennedy, he'll need to scoop up the lion's share of Kennedy's delegates to overtake Rae. But can Dion count on Kennedy? Despite much hoopla about a possible Dion-Kennedy pact, no deal has yet been sealed wherein the first off the ballot would agree to support the other

GERARD KENNEDY

The former Ontario cabinet minister has tried to position himself as the consensus candidate, staying above the fray while his rivals berate each other.

The longest shot of the top four, Kennedy boasts a strong, youthful team with almost cult-like devotion to their candidate. His strategists predict Kennedy's delegates will turn out in significantly greater numbers than any of the other camps.

However, Kennedy's growth potential is widely deemed the lowest of the four due to his halting French, his failure to capture more than a handful of delegates in Quebec and his lack of profile outside Ontario.

Kennedy needs to stay ahead of Dion and then have the Quebec candidate, and at least two-thirds of his delegates, come to him so that he can leapfrog over Rae.

Kennedy's own strategists admit that feat will be difficult, and rival strategists dismiss it as "pure fiction.'' Even if Dion endorses Kennedy, they find it hard to believe that Dion's delegates, particularly those from Quebec, would follow.