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G8 Summit: Russia's Place at the Table
By: Ellen Pinchuk, CTV News
Date: Mon. Jul. 10 2006 5:11 PM ET
MOSCOW Starting July 15, the world's attention will be focused on St. Petersburg and the gathering of leaders from the world's most powerful industrialized democracies. At least, that is what the G8 is supposed to be about.
But there has been a steady drumbeat of criticism directed at Russia and questions as to whether Russia even deserves a place at the table it is setting for the world's leaders.
A few things to consider: Economically, Russia lags far behind the other G8 countries (Canada, England, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United States) in terms of per capita GDP. Its economy is largely dependent on Russia's vast natural resources, with production and industry not yet fully developed.
On the other hand, oil and gas are the hot commodities on these days. With instability in the Middle East, Russia is a relatively stable source of energy, and the nation is clearly emboldened and empowered by this. So much so, that Russia shocked its allies and partners by cutting off Ukraine's supply of natural gas in the middle of winter over a pricing dispute.
Though the conflict was resolved in three days and the taps were turned back on, the Kremlin faced accusations of using its resources to punish its neighbor for electing a pro-Western government. The tie between resources and politics sent chills through G8 countries. The Russians argued they just wanted a market price for their gas, which they'd been selling to Ukraine at a huge discount.
Ellen Pinchuk, CTV's Moscow Bureau Chief, looks at Russia's role as host of the G8 Summit |
Fortuitously, energy security is the number one topic on the agenda at the G8, and Canada will be playing an important role as one of the few countries in the G8 with sufficient oil supplies of its own. One analyst I spoke with suggested that Canada may have a valuable role as a mediator in these discussions and says that "Canada is the best" at doing just that.
But what about the "democracies" part of the G8 group description -- does Russia qualify? Russia's inclusion in the G7 beginning in 1998 was considered a reward for its democratic reforms and a gesture of hope for its future.
Of late, though, the Western press, analysts and politicians have become more skeptical about where Russia is now. Headlines like "Russia - Odd Man Out in the G-8" and "Critics Savage Russian G8 Role as 'Leader of Democracies'" are popping up all over, and are a tremendous embarrassment for the G8 host.
U.S. Vice-President Dick Cheney, speaking recently in Lithuania, said, "America and all of Europe also want to see Russia in the category of healthy, vibrant democracies. Yet in Russia today, opponents of reform are seeking to reverse the gains of the last decade." Freedom House, the respected group of scholars and journalists, has moved Russia from its "partly free" column to "not free" as of 2005.
How far has Russia come?
There are many nuances here. First, Russia as a modern nation is merely 15 years old. Imagine how far a nascent democracy can come in just 15 years? Are the West's expectations too high?
I remember being in the Soviet Union as a student in the 1980s, and I can say with certainty that there is no comparison between today's lack of freedom and the palpable fear that reigned in those days. At the time, I was followed and any criticism was voiced in a whisper, while looking over our shoulders that no one was listening. The fact that there is still an abundance of people speaking their minds and voicing their concerns here means that Russia as a democracy is not lost.
Putin at his annual press conference on Jan. 31, 2006. |
I would also point out that Russian President Vladimir Putin has a domestic approval rating of over 70 per cent, which any G8 leader would probably kill for. Thanks in large part to the high price of oil, Russians are enjoying a measure of stability that they sorely lacked in the tumultuous 1990s. And, if to speak of the will of the people here, 59 per cent are in favor of rewriting the constitution to allow President Putin to run for a third term in 2008. That's pretty strong backing, even if the rest of the G8 is ringing alarm bells.
And on the eve of the Summit, for those nations, including Canada, a conundrum: To pacify Russia and try to bring it closer to democracy? To isolate Russia, with its vast supplies of energy and weaponry? To encourage Russia in a friendly way that may be perceived as approval of troublesome trends?
And, as one member of Russia's opposition put it, what happens when the last plane leaves?
The G8 leaders will gather on July 15th in the city built by Peter the Great in 1703. It was called his "Window on Europe." The often cruel but strong-willed czar wanted Russia to modernize and become a western power and he moved the country's capital from Moscow to St. Petersburg to further that end. In many ways, Russia again finds itself looking through the window to the West, but, is, perhaps, not quite ready to walk through the door.
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This is just wrong but if I were to send something to the politicians I would have sent the brain!
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