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Grits regain support, not momentum, poll shows
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CTV.ca News Staff
Date: Tue. Nov. 8 2005 6:20 AM ET
It took less than a week, but the Liberals have already rebounded from the popularity hit they took when the Gomery report was released on Nov. 1.
In a Nov. 4 poll, the governing party's support was estimated at 28 per cent -- a 10-point plunge from one released Oct. 19.
However, in a new poll conducted over the weekend by The Strategic Counsel for CTV and The Globe and Mail, the Liberals are back up to 35 per cent support.
Here are the new numbers, with the percentage-point change from the Nov. 4 poll in brackets:
- Liberals: 35 per cent (+7)
- Conservatives: 28 per cent (-3)
- NDP: 16 per cent (-4)
- Bloc Quebecois 13 per cent (no change)
- Green Party: 8 per cent (+1)
Regionally, the poll found the Liberals taking a solid lead over the Opposition in Ontario, 44 to 31 per cent.
In Quebec, the Liberals have 30 per cent support, which has them trailing the sovereigntist Bloc Quebecois by 20 points.
However, the other federalist parties -- the Conservatives, NDP and Greens -- are all in single digits there.
The one bright spot for Stephen Harper's Conservatives continues to be the West.
With the support of 42 per cent of respondents there, the Tories were down slightly, but still far ahead of the Liberals. Only five points separate the Grits and NDP there, with the two parties attracting 25 and 20 per cent of voters, respectively.
Momentum
Poll respondents were asked: "From what you can tell, which party, if any, is gaining the most popularity and momentum towards winning a possible federal election?"
Here are the results, with percentage-point change from Nov. 4 in brackets:
- Liberals: 29 per cent (-5)
- Conservatives: 28 per cent (+6)
- NDP: 9 per cent (-1)
- Bloc Quebecois: Eight per cent (-1)
- Greens: 2 per cent (+1)
- Other: 1 per cent (no change)
- None: six per cent (-2)
- Don't know: 17 per cent (+3)
It's too soon for Prime Minister Paul Martin to start counting a victory vote, however, as the pollsters warn Tory loss does not necessarily mean Liberal gain.
"Neither party is now seen by the public to be commanding momentum toward an election victory," The Strategic Counsel wrote in a statement accompanying the latest poll results.
Attempting to explain the shift over the weekend, the pollsters offer two possibilities:
- The fading of reaction to the Gomery report from the public spotlight, and
- The sudden possibility Harper's Conservatives might finally be mustering enough support to form government "gave a significant number of voters -- especially in Ontario -- pause, and an occasion to reassess their support."
Polling details: The results are based on telephone interviews conducted between Nov. 5 and Nov. 6, 2005. The weighted national sample of 1,000 adult Canadians yields a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
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