In what is another landmark step toward the rebirth of their nation, Iraqis will head to the polls on Oct. 15 to vote in a referendum on a draft constitution drawn up by members of Iraq's transitional parliament.

Officials at Iraq's election commission estimate the turnout will be as high as 11 million, of the country's 15.5 million eligible voters.

Voters will be asked: "Do you approve of the draft constitution of Iraq?"

The UN has provided millions of copies of the constitution to be distributed to the public.

The charter's passage is a key goal of the United States. Should the draft constitution be rejected, it could mean months more political instability and further delays on U.S. plans to start pulling troops out of Iraq.

Though Western officials had hoped the referendum would help unite the population behind the democratic process, there are fears it will only further divide the country along religious and ethnic lines.

Indeed, passage of the draft constitution will be no easy task.

On Jan. 30 of this year Iraqis braved the threat of violence to vote in landmark elections.

The main responsibility of the 275-seat transitional parliament that was elected was to draft a new constitution by Aug. 15.

While the Bush administration has pushed hard for Iraqis to stick to making the deadline, the contentious document has been amended several times.

The nation's Sunni minority plans to oppose the charter.

However, after boycotting last January's election, Sunnis have only 17 members in the current transitional 275-member parliament, and therefore have not been properly represented on the parliamentary committee drafting the constitution.

Instead, constitution committee was heavily dominated by Shia and Kurds, who were left to write a constitution without having to consider the Sunni Iraqis, who once occupied a dominant position under former Iraqi president Saddam Hussein.

Among a host of other concerns:

• Sunnis fear the charter would establish two nearly autonomous regions - a Kurdish one in the north and a Shia one in the south - which would leave most Sunnis landlocked in the centre of the country.
• The charter describes Iraq as "part of the Islamic world and its Arab people are part of the Arab nation." This is meant to be an apparent concession to non-Arab minorities such as the Kurds. However, Sunnis and some Shias wanted the text to say Iraq is a part of the Arab world instead.
• The constitution outlaws the Baath political party, through which Hussein ruled Iraq. Sunni Arabs resent attempts to ban former Baath party members from government posts or political lives, feeling that would deprive them of livelihood in the new Iraq. Some say they had no choice but to belong to the party.

However, in the days leading up to the referendum, the Iraqi government introduced a series of last-minute constitutional amendments aimed at winning the support of Sunnis.

As a result, the amended draft has won the backing of at least one Sunni party.

So far, talks have produced only tentative approval of symbolic changes.

For example, Shiite and Kurdish leaders have agreed to call the nation "Arab and Muslim nation of Iraq."

In addition, Shias have accepted a clause emphasizing Iraq's unity "in its soil, its nation and its sovereignty," aimed at quelling Sunni concerns on federalism.

While Sunnis have not been represented in parliament, Sunni opposition could have an impact at the polls.

Indeed, the draft could be rejected if more than two-thirds of voters oppose it in any three of Iraq's 18 provinces -- and Sunnis have the potential to do so in just four.

If Iraqis approve the draft constitution, elections for a permanent government will be held on Dec. 15, formally ending Iraq's period of transitional government.

Under this timeline, the new government would assume power by Dec. 31.

Significantly, Sunnis who have so far boycotted the political process may have a new motivation to vote.

Under recent amendments, the entire constitution would be reviewed by the new legislature, if it is elected in December.

But if voters reject the constitution in Saturday's referendum, the National Assembly will be dissolved and elections for a new interim parliament will be held, again in December.

They will then have to draft another charter, to go before another referendum by Oct. 2006.