While a federal election call looms ever closer, a new public opinion poll shows Stephen Harper and the Conservatives have surged ahead of Prime Minister Paul Martin's Liberals.

The poll, conducted for CTV and The Globe and Mail by The Strategic Counsel, finds that nationally 31 per cent of voters polled would back the Conservatives if an election were held today. That's up three points since April. Meanwhile, the Liberals have slipped three points to 27 per cent.

"There's a sense that if anyone's got any wind in their sails, it is the Conservatives," Allan Gregg, chairman of The Strategic Counsel, told CTV's Canada AM on Wednesday.

The NDP gained two points and now stands at 20 per cent, while the Green Party lost three points, settling at seven per cent.

In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois has maintained its massive lead over all other parties with 56 per cent of those surveyed saying they would vote for Gilles Duceppe's party. The Liberals trail by 40 points at 16 per cent, the NDP stands at 11 and the Conservatives at eight per cent.

There's more ominous news for the Liberals in the key battleground of Ontario. The Tories are now in a statistical tie with the Grits. Support for the Conservatives jumped five points to 35 per cent.

The Liberals have dropped four points since April and now come in at 34 per cent. The NDP gained a few points to stand at 25 per cent and the Greens at seven per cent.

Despite the surge in numbers for the Stephen Harper's Conservatives, Gregg believes the poll shows there is no guarantee that if at election were called the Tories would win.

"It shows that the Liberals are in tremendous disrepair and that the Tories can't seem to get above a particular number," Greg told CTV Newsnet.

"You look at these numbers right now and you're hard-pressed to believe they would result in a parliament even as stable as the one we have at the moment."

The leaders

The news gets worse for the Liberals when it comes to the personal performances of each party leader.

The sponsorship scandal and negative commentary over Martin's recent efforts to strike deals to keep his party in power seems to have eaten away at his once-vaunted credibility.

When asked to name which of the leaders is the most dishonest:

• 63 per cent of Canadians picked Martin;
• 20 per cent chose Harper;
• 5 per cent of respondents said NDP Leader Jack Layton; and
• 3 per cent named Bloc Quebecois Leader Gilles Duceppe.

The picture becomes even bleaker for Martin.  A stunning 61 per cent of Canadians say they believe he would lie if it would help him politically; 54 per cent call him hypocritical; while 47 percent say he's indecisive.

"The stain of the sponsorship scandal is clearly directly on the prime minister now, notwithstanding all his attempts to distance himself from the Chretien legacy," said Gregg.

"And that is something that should be most alarming. Once someone thinks you're a liar or you're prepared to put your own political interests ahead of the public interest, it's very, very hard to regain that trust."

Harper, meanwhile, has gained crucial momentum going into an election, with poll results indicating that Canadians are beginning to warm up to him and his vision.

However, he's yet to shake off the cool, remote image that many believe has been holding down Conservative support across the country.

When Canadians were asked which party leader they would most like to have dinner with, both Layton (25 per cent) and Martin (23 per cent) edged out Harper, who polled at 19 per cent. Duceppe trailed far behind at 10 per cent nationally, but was picked by 35 per cent in Quebec.

Given the total polling results, however, Harper's positive ratings exceed his negatives, which indicate there could be opportunities for Harper to continue to redefine his image.

Popular vote

No leader enjoys the popularity of Jack Layton, however. Despite his party's perennial third and fourth place finishes, Canadians seem to continue to see Layton in a positive light.

On the question of which leader is the most charismatic, Layton scores 30 per cent, while Martin comes in at 27 and Harper 24. He also scores strongly in areas of principle, honesty, and holding values important to Canadians.

Ottawa-based image consultant Bernie Gauthier says voters see Layton as less partisan and petty than the other leaders.

"He has done a terrific job, especially in the last week or so of taking the high road. It's the road less travelled now," Gauthier told CTV News.

Martin's track record

The Liberals acknowledge their own polling shows that their leader has been tainted by the sponsorship scandal. But Steve McKinnon, the party's national director, says the Liberals still view Martin as being their strongest asset.

"When Canadians must judge between Paul Martin, Stephen Harper, Jack Layton and Gilles Duceppe ... they will choose Paul Martin because of his track record," McKinnon told CTV News.

And he may be right. When asked which leader Canadians would trust most as prime minister, Martin edged out Harper 31 to 29, in spite of the scandal mess the Liberals seem to be stuck in.

But the poll nevertheless shows Martin's credibility to be eroding, with his unfavourable ratings exceeding his favourable scores.

That could explain why the Liberals have been desperately trying to delay an election, reports CTV Ottawa bureau chief Robert Fife.

"Martin needs time to re-connect with voters, and the Liberal party needs to recover from the Gomery revelations," he said.

Canadians seem to hold Liberal party corruption, however, as a key issue to consider if they're sent to the polls in June.

When asked what they're most concerned about should a federal election be held in June, 23 per cent of the total sample polled said the sponsorship scandal. Health care came next on the list, at 20 per cent, while other issues such as the economy and environment trailed far behind.

Voter allegiance

As for how solid voters are about their choices if they were sent to the polls, there's been little difference in the numbers since they were asked the same question in April.

Of people who might switch their allegiances, according to the new poll:

Liberals who might switch their vote

• Current Liberals who might switch to Conservatives: 7 per cent
• Current Liberals who might switch to NDP: 11 per cent

Conservatives who might switch their vote

• Current Conservatives who might switch to Liberals: 8 per cent
• Current Conservatives who might switch to NDP: 9 per cent

Bloc Quebecois who might switch their vote

• Current BQ who might switch to Liberals: 1 per cent
• Current BQ who might switch to Conservatives: 3 per cent
• Current BQ who might switch to NDP: 4 per cent

These numbers, however, indicate voter volatility which didn't exist in federal campaigns 10 or 15 years ago.

Polling details: This poll was conducted for CTV and The Globe and Mail by The Strategic Counsel. Telephone interviewing was conducted between May 2nd and May 8th, 2005. The weighted nation-wide sample is based on 1,000 which yields a margin of error of 3.1 per cent 19 times in 20. (Note: Proportions may not sum to 100 per cent due to rounding.)

With a report from CTV Ottawa bureau chief Robert Fife