The Conservatives have taken an eight-point lead over the Liberals, with strong momentum that could carry them to victory on Jan. 23 unless the other parties can derail their campaign, says a new poll.

The Liberals don't have much time to turn things around, an analyst warned.

"They've got to put a halt to this, because this momentum number won't stop, and it will continue to translate into a higher vote preference for the Conservatives," Tim Woolstencroft, managing partner of The Strategic Counsel, told CTV.ca on Sunday.

The survey, conducted by The Strategic Counsel for CTV and The Globe and Mail, shows the Conservatives have jumped ahead nationally after making headway in Quebec, Ontario and Atlantic Canada and B.C. (percentage point change from a Dec. 20-22 poll in brackets):

• Conservatives: 37 per cent (+8)
• Liberals 29 per cent (-7)
• NDP: 15 per cent (-2)
• Bloc Quebecois: 13 per cent (unchanged)
• Greens: 6 per cent (+1)

When asked which party has momentum going towards the Jan. 23 federal election, the results showed the Tories have a huge advantage over the other parties (percentage point change from a Dec. 20-22 poll in brackets):

• Conservatives: 53 per cent (+30)
• Liberals: 14 per cent (-19)
• NDP: 6 per cent (-4)
• Bloc Quebecois: 6 per cent (-3)
• Greens: 1 per cent (-1)

The image being projected by both the Conservative Party and leader Stephen Harper is one more Canadian voters are finding comfortable. There has been a rise in the number of Canadians who think the values of the Conservative Party match their own (percentage point change from a pre-election, Nov. 24-27 poll in brackets):

• Conservatives: 29 per cent (+5)
• Liberals: 23 per cent (-4)
• NDP: 17 per cent (-1)
• Bloc Quebecois: 9 per cent (-2)
• Greens: 5 per cent (+1)

"What we saw before is Canadians basically saw Paul Martin much closer to their values," Woolstencroft said, appearing on CTV Newsnet.

"What we saw in this latest poll is that Harper is really trumping Martin on values. Basically Harper is way more aligned with Canadian values than Paul Martin as of over the weekend."

On who respondents think would provide the most accountable government, the Conservatives enjoy a wide advantage over the other parties:

• Conservatives: 33 per cent
• Liberals: 17 per cent
• NDP: 17 per cent
• Bloc Quebecois: 5 per cent
• Greens: 4 per cent
• DK/NA/Ref.: 24 per cent

The Conservatives are also beating the Liberals on which platform voters prefer. Twice as many Canadians found that the Conservative Party has introduced the most appealing policies:

• Conservatives: 36 per cent
• Liberals: 18 per cent
• NDP: 12 per cent
• Bloc Quebecois: 5 per cent
• Greens: 3 per cent

"The Conservative policies have been targeted at the middle-class voter, and clearly that's connecting," Woolstencroft said. "We see that in Quebec, and we see that across the country. Those moderate, middle-class policies have struck a chord."

One area of weakness for the Tories could be that the majority of respondents believe the Conservatives would make Canada far more like the United States:

• Conservatives: 46 per cent
• Liberals: 17 per cent
• NDP: 5 per cent
• Bloc Quebecois: 1 per cent
• Greens: less than 1 per cent
• DK/NA/Ref.: 24 per cent

Regional numbers

Conservatives have made a dramatic jump in Quebec since Christmas, far surpassing the party's 2004 election results.

With momentum still climbing, especially outside Montreal, Woolstencroft said the Tories will likely win at least two seats in the province (percentage point change from a Dec. 20-22 poll in brackets):

• Bloc Quebecois: 52 per cent (unchanged)
• Liberals: 21 per cent (-8)
• Conservatives: 19 per cent (+11)
• NDP: 6 per cent (-2)
• Greens: 2 per cent (-1)

"When we ran our model last week and they were at 15 (per cent), we had them at one seat in Quebec City," Woolstencroft said. "At 19 points, they're probably picking up two, three or four seats."

Even in Ontario, where Liberal support has remained strong, the Conservatives have reached a statistical tie with the Grits (percentage point change from a Dec. 20-22 poll in brackets):

• Conservatives: 41 per cent (+8)
• Liberals: 40 per cent (-7)
• NDP: 14 per cent (-2)
• Greens: 5 per cent (+1)

In 2004, the Tories had 32 per cent support in Ontario.

Over the Christmas period, votes went from the Liberals to alternative parties such as the NDP and the Green Party, said Allan Gregg, chairman of The Strategic Counsel. However, those same votes are now starting to shift again, but not back to the Liberals.

"The NDP vote and the Green vote have gravitated towards the Conservatives," he said.

In B.C., where 36 seats are available, the Tories have made a large gain and hit another campaign high (percentage point change from a Dec. 20-22 poll in brackets):

• Conservatives: 37 per cent (+8)
• Liberals: 28 per cent (-7)
• NDP: 26 per cent (-4)
• Greens: 9 per cent (+3)

"Unquestionably, one of the most competitive regions in the country," Gregg said.

Meanwhile, support for the Conservatives remains firm in the Prairies, while the Liberals have fallen to their lowest point since the start of the campaign (percentage point change from a Dec. 20-22 poll in brackets):

• Conservatives: 53 per cent (-1)
• Liberals: 18 per cent (-5)
• NDP: 20 per cent (+5)
• Greens: 9 per cent (-1)

All of this raises stakes in the leaders debates on Monday and Tuesday. The English-language debate starts at 8 p.m. Monday and will be televised on CTV and Newsnet.

Technical notes:

Results are based on nightly tracking among a proportionate national sample of Canadians 18 years of age or older.

Findings have been rolled up and analyzed over a three-day period. Interviews were conducted between Jan. 5 and 8.

The sample size and margin of error (with the margin of error in brackets) for each region are as follows:

• Canada: 1,500 (2.5)
• Quebec: 370 (5.1)
• Rest of Canada: 1,129 (2.9)
• Ontario: 569 (4.1)
• Prairies: 246 (6.3)
• B.C.: 200 (7.0)

Here are the questions asked:

• Q. (momentum) From what you can tell, which party, if any, is gaining the most popularity and momentum leading up to the election. Is it the ...?
• Q. (party support) If the election was being held tomorrow, do you think you'd be supporting the (ROTATE LIST) Liberal candidate in your area, Conservative candidate in your area, the NDP candidate in your area, or the Green Party candidate in your area or (QUEBEC ONLY) Bloc Quebecois candidate in your area?
• Q. (party support) In that case, which party's candidate in your local area would you be leaning towards at this time? Would it be the (ROTATE LIST) Liberal candidate in your area, Conservative candidate in your area, the NDP candidate in your area, or the Green Party candidate in your area or (QUEBEC ONLY) Bloc Quebecois candidate in your area?
• Q. (values) Thinking of the main political parties in the federal election, Liberal Party, Conservative Party, New Democratic Party, that is the NDP, Green Party, Bloc Quebecois (ask only in Quebec), which one do you think holds values that are closest to your own?
• Q. (policies) Thinking of the main political parties in the federal election, Liberal Party, Conservative Party, New Democratic Party, that is the NDP, Green Party, Bloc Quebecois (ask only in Quebec), which one do you think has introduced the most appealing policies or platform during this campaign?
• Q: (accountability) Thinking of the main political parties in the federal election, Liberal Party, Conservative Party, New Democratic Party, that is the NDP, Green Party, Bloc Quebecois (ask only in Quebec), which one do you think if they formed the government would be most accountable to the voters elected them?
• Q:  (Americanization) Thinking of the main political parties in the federal election, Liberal Party, Conservative Party, New Democratic Party, that is the NDP, Green Party, Bloc Quebecois (ask only in Quebec), which one do you think would make Canada far more like the United States?

To obtain a written copy of the poll, contact The Strategic Counsel, 21 St. Clair Ave. E., Ste. 2100, Toronto, ON, M4T 1L9.