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Experts see wisdom in Harper's marriage gambit

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Date: Wed. Nov. 30 2005 8:54 PM ET

OTTAWA — Stephen Harper had two choices in fielding the same-sex marriage questions he knew would come during the federal election campaign -- lance the boil quickly or let the tension drain slowly and painfully.

The Conservative leader's decision to dive headlong into the debate mere minutes into the campaign sent many pundits' jaws dropping to the floor, in the belief they had witnessed the first misstep of the eight-week race.

By Wednesday, however, the verdict was less decisive as some concluded it was part of a deliberate, offensive strategy intended to help Harper get the issue out of the way and focus his campaign on the central themes of accountability and taxes.

"My first thought was this is not the ground you want to fight the election on -- that's really stupid,'' said Paul Thomas, a political scientist at the University of Manitoba.

"But then, as I thought about it more, I realized it was a calculated judgment. I don't think there's a huge downside, and it may provide protection against it surfacing later.''

Harper went out of his way during his opening news conference Tuesday to put on the record that a Conservative government would allow a free vote on restoring the traditional definition of marriage.

If such a bill passed, he promised to somehow preserve more than 3,000 gay marriages already performed -- while banning similar marriages in future.

The suggestion drew an angry rebuke Wednesday from some constitutional law experts, who said reopening the debate would risk plunging the country into a legal quagmire that would end with the need to invoke the rarely used notwithstanding clause to override the Charter of Rights.

Same-sex marriage was a constant theme during the 2004 campaign, with Prime Minister Paul Martin portraying himself as the defender of the charter against Harper. The controversy cost the Conservatives crucial support in urban Ontario and among younger voters.

Many observers say that, this time around, Harper has winning themes -- ethics, trust, change -- if only he can keep his focus there.

"He's trying to finesse this as smoothly as possible but he's really just raising some red flags,'' said David Docherty of Wilfred Laurier University.

Docherty says there's little upside for Harper in renewing the same-sex debate.

His MPs who are oppose such unions sit in relatively safe seats, but most of the voters he is trying to win over in Ontario and British Columbia likely don't want to revisit the issue.

"On one hand you can start out with this and say, `It's out there, it's over, let's talk about ethics,' '' said Docherty.

"But when you do it on the first day, you open yourself up to questions about whether this is what you're going to base your campaign around, and I think that's the problem he's facing right now.''

Conservative strategists say Harper simply addressed a reporter's question Tuesday, with the same answer he has always given and which has now become official party policy.

As for timing, he was going to answer it whenever, wherever it was asked.

The Liberals pounced on Harper, as did gay activists. Andre Boislcair, the separatist Parti Quebecois' new openly gay leader, even said Harper's comments had already alienated Quebecers.

"We will find Quebec MPs will block his path,'' Boisclair told reporters in Quebec City. "He will find Quebecers will block his path. It would be a backwards step for Quebec.''

But by Wednesday the Conservative leader had shifted to his plan to appoint a special prosecutor to handle sponsorship-like wrongdoing, while Martin was in Montreal launching former astronaut Marc Garneau's campaign.

While the Liberals have often tagged the Conservatives with having a hidden social agenda, analyst Faron Ellis says those arguments have lost some of their punch since the Tory policy convention earlier this year.

The party was seen as moving to the middle ground on critical issues such as abortion and official bilingualism.

"The contra-bogeyman argument is going to be `We had a convention, we have a policy,' '' said Ellis, who teaches political science at Lethbridge Community College.

But he cautions that Harper's true test is still to come, as he must offer voters positive reasons to choose his party.

"They're betting that, if the best the Liberals have after eight weeks is a ballot box question on same-sex marriage, that's not going to hurt them.''

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