Finance Minister Jim Flaherty is expected to release a budget today that will give $4 billion to provinces for social programs, with a possible spring election on the horizon.

"Almost everybody who is walking and breathing in this country will get something in this budget," Robert Fife, CTV's Ottawa bureau chief, told Canada AM on Monday.

But he added that "people who will not be happy are probably those in the environmentalist movement. Environmentalists were expecting billions of dollars to go towards reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and you're not going to see that kind of money."

Early Monday, Greenpeace protestors chained themselves to the gates of 24 Sussex Drive, the prime minister's official residence.

The RCMP was able to cut through the chains, and Prime Minister Stephen Harper was not actually inside the estate at the time.

The core of the budget will likely be the $4 billion aimed at satisfying provinces, including richer equalization payments for so-called "have-not" provinces like Quebec.

"Watch for the transfer payments. That's where the bulk of the money is for: post-secondary education, health and infrastructure," Flaherty told CTV's Question Period on Sunday.

CTV News has learned details about some of the other tax relief and spending initiatives:

• $3 billion in tax breaks aimed at general tax relief, helping the working poor get off social assistance and fitness tax credits for families with children.
• Seniors will see a special tax credit as well as pension income-splitting
• Corporations will also get a $1 billion tax cut, and
• Investors should see capital gains taxes reduced
• Prime Minister Stephen Harper has already announced about $1.5 billion in environmental spending.
• Sources tell CTV News that the budget will provide incentives for buying energy-efficient cars.
• Cities will continue to receive a share of federal gas taxes.

"The Harper government has been smart. They have already laid out, over the past few weeks, some announcements on the environment," said Question Period host Jane Taber on Monday.

"As well, they gave a billion dollars in money to Saskatchewan farmers, because I think there's a worry in this budget that the Saskatchewan and Newfoundland premiers may not be as happy with the money that goes to the provinces."

Opposition reaction

"If it turns out to be accepted by the opposition, terrific. If they decide they don't like it, I think the Canadian people will decide they like it," Flaherty said.

Liberal Leader Stephane Dion told Question Period the budget didn't have to be perfect.

"If it is a budget not as good as we would like it but it's say acceptable -- not detrimental to the Canadian people -- we may vote for it," he said.

"Everybody in the NDP is focused on getting some results out of the Parliament as long as it's sitting," said NDP Leader Jack Layton.

All three opposition parties -- the Liberals, NDP and Bloc Quebecois -- would have to vote against the budget to defeat it.

In a rousing speech to about 5,000 supporters in Toronto on Saturday night, Prime Minister Stephen Harper said he didn't want an election, but was "ready and willing" to fight one on his government's record.