Afghan loss equals terrorist win: CIA analyst

A former CIA analyst whose book was mentioned by Osama bin Laden in a video released last week says Canada and NATO countries will hand terrorists a victory if they give up combat operations in Afghanistan.

Michael Scheuer, a retired 22-year CIA veteran and author of "Through Our Enemies' Eyes" says that Canada, the U.S., and their allies have not devoted enough resources to winning the fight against terrorism in Afghanistan. He argues that too few soldiers and too many agendas have already led to a near-defeat in that country.

"I think it's a dastardly way to treat our people in uniform," Scheuer told CTV's Question Period on Sunday.

Scheuer says that Canadian and NATO leaders have "betrayed" their soldiers in Afghanistan by not providing a clear focus and enough support. He added that Osama bin Laden and other terrorists were inspired by their victory over the Soviets in Afghanistan in the 1980s. Scheuer fears that a loss in Afghanistan will hand bin Laden another inspirational victory.

"When we're defeated there, and when we're defeated in Iraq, bin Laden suddenly becomes a figure of world importance because he predicted long ago that the Americans and their allies are soft ... and will eventually be easier to defeat than the Soviets."

Bin Laden mentioned Scheuer's books specifically in his latest video when he tried to explain why the West was losing in Iraq and Afghanistan. Scheuer told Question Period co-host Craig Oliver that Canada and its allies have not acknowledged the true reasons Islamic fundamentalists are engaged in terrorism. He says bin Laden and his followers are not fighting the West because of its freedom, democracy, or commitment to gender equality.

"We're fighting an enemy that doesn't exist ... if you don't fight the enemy in the way that he's motivated, you're going to lose" said Scheuer.

He said American and the West's unqualified support for Israel, support for tyrannical regimes in the Middle East, and dependence on oil in the region are all contributing to the real reasons for terrorist acts.

Scheuer says that the U.S. should never have entered Iraq and is on the verge of losing the war in that country. He also noted that neither the U.S. nor Canada have taken effective control of their borders, something which may lead to future terrorism.

"We're basically led by people who are unwilling to control their own borders," he says. "They say they don't worry about it, or it's gotten better, but the reality is North America is basically a wide open place for terrorism, whether in Canada or Mexico or the United States."

Scheuer says that victory against Islamic fundamentalists can only come if Canadian, U.S., and other Western governments change strategies and understand what motivates terrorists.

Comments are now closed for this story

Mike
said

Much is at stake here. Should NATO 'fail' in Afghanistan then it just may come apart. Think about what that will mean for Canada's long-term security arrangements.

As for why we're there just ask yourself the question "If we're not there who is?". Have we forgotten 911?

Some Canadians need to wake up and realize that freedom isn't free. Support the troops and the mission. Failure is not an option. Unlike Iraq, Afghanistan promises a successful conclusion if vigorously executed. Most insurgencys take approx two decades to resolve. Dig in.

Mirwais Kabuli
said

Mr. Scheuer is very right in his analyses of the situation in Afghanistan. Being a fresh returnee from Afghanistan, 2,5 months, I confirm most of what he states in the above report.

It is true that Afghanistan is a big mess and urgent measures must be taken in order to save the day. West can not afford to lose Afghanistan, but remember that valuable time and opportunities are running out in the sand.

Two basic imperatives must be executed asap in order "win" the war in Afghanistan:

1) Neutralise or if necessary eliminate the warlords around Karzai's neck.
2) Stop the meddling of Pakistan and Iran. Attack terrorist sanctuaries across the border in Pakistan, which is the epicenter of international terrorism and Islamic extremism of all sorts.

Whithout the achievement of the above objectives, you can never win the war in Afghanistan. Rest assured!

John T
said

The overwhelming consensus seems without doubt to be that we are in Afghanistan for all the right reasons and that a robust, high-tech military incursion into a sovereign nation was justified by the events of 9/11 and the former US-trained and supplied Taliban's tardiness in expelling or turning over the former US friend and ally Osama Bin Laden.

I have never agreed with this. It was more a source of satisfaction than surprise to see the Taliban temporarily routed, given what we in the West viewed as a pathological cultural regressiveness.

Invasion was only one of several options, but it most closely met the American public's cry for vengeance and was a poorly thought-out knee-jerk reaction conceived in anger.

Even to this day I harbour grave misgivings about our willingness to bear the combined might of our sophisticated killing technology on a culture that we all acknowledged was wallowing in a medieval time-warp, and bomb it back to the stone-age.

Acts conceived in anger and fuelled by vengeance have a slim chance of success, and the invasion of a sovereign nation, however pathological should never have been undertaken so lightly.

It is time to readress our paradigm about the righteousness of our actions six years ago, and base our future plans on the results of this more sober reflection.

razor
said

For those of you that have not been in this part of the world should really read more about what we as Canadian Soldiers have done in the past, since 2002 and what still needs to be done. So one person said that we as canadians should take a break for 5 years, and get someone else in to replace the military. Think about that if others are not doing enough according to some of you then who would be the ones to replace the military. Just wondering. Also keep this in mind you cannot believe everything you read.

Cesare
said

I have double citizenship, Canadian and Italian. I strongly support the Canadian military in their effort. Italy is in Afghanistan too and my understanding is that the Italians have very limited rules of engagement. I have a doubt though, is this due to limitations imposed by the Italian government/constitution or by the fact that some nations are still rated "B" in the alliance as they were the losers of the previous world conflict? (Germans, Japanese, Italians etc.)

David Engel
said

It is ironic that the terrorists and the world always blame the U.S. and Israel for the trouble and unfortunately no one is really looking at the overall picture from a long time ago. This is an extension of WWll. The terrorists are as anti-semetic as the Nazis were. Now they have another excuse, that everyone must believe in Islam. It is sad that a small percentage of people have hijacked a religion and have become armed thugs. Unfortunately this small percentage makes up a lot of people.

Even the so called experts have lost track as to what is going on and only looking at the recent events without looking at the overall picture.

I do agree that the "west" better wake up soon and commit the time, money and energy as they did in WWI and WWII because these thugs are not going to go away. So if anyone thinks that if Israel is gone or settles with the Palestinians that there will be peace, you are all dreaming in technicolour. The only way to stop this is for the whole world to get together and say enough is enough and support the troops and make sure they all have the funds for equipment and enough troops from all the countries to make it happen.

Why the US supports the President of Pakistan I can not understand but since WWII the Us has made mistakes after mistakes after mistakes. Their foreign policy stinks and is a laugh.

Jim McB
said

We keep skirting the real issue of NATO Nations that are not taking their share of the load in Afghanistan. They are mainly European countries and they have problems participating because their economies are in trouble. France for instance has had their GDP shrink by 14%, and a war effort would likely sink them. These countries need an influx of capital, and since the other, wiser major economic players did not buy into the outrageous plans for carbon trading to supply it, they will remain in that quagmire.

Those who took a more common sense approach to global warming are keeping their cash and growing their economies while moving stadily toward sustainable industry. They are also the ones sustaining the mission. If we had listened to Dion or Taliban Jack we would be in the same position or running a defecit.

Lance
said

"They (the soldiers) have to keep Karzai's government in power, they have to defeat the Taliban insurgency, they have to reconstruct the economy, they're supposed to build a democracy, they're assigned to eradicate the heroin industry, and in their spare time they can go after bin Laden."
Go after Bin Laden in their spare time? How about they go after him FIRST!!!! This CIA analyst is crazy. He just wants us there to protect the CIA's poppy & oil fields. Who are you trying to kid here?

Greg
said

It is hard to overcome the inertia of decadence, where the citizens of our societies have become so complacent, so informed, so affluent and so cynical--and so just, so sophisticated in the use of intrigue and so dis-involved; where political structures have become as twisted as the citizens they serve; where, in reality, almost all citizens are so sated that we do nothing more each than say what we think we want today rather than moving our butts and getting involved in making sure we get what is good for all time. Imagine our wastefulness at designing buildings that have limited lifespans, building roads that will be moved in five years! Thomas Jefferson is credited with saying, "The government you elect is the government you deserve." I think that phrase puts it about right, coming and going. Government is supposed to be by us, for us, but politicians, like the rest of us, have become self-centred and self-seeking. I applaud everyone who writes in these comment spaces. I urge us all to speak up more, in greater forums, and constantly, and to encourage those around us to do so, too, so that, together, we may overcome the impossibility of all individuals being physically involved--there are too many of us--but make our voices heard. That concept is the true enemy of totalitarianism by whatever name it may go today. So that the people who pay the piper, really call the tune! And may the majority rule...

Janus
said

The North Vietnamese had only to monitor America's weakening resolve to realize that their victory was not a matter of IF, but WHEN.
With weakening support at home, even Osama bin Laden can read the signs (and books).

The second war that America lost. Is this Canada's first loss?

Catherine
said

What motivates the terrorists? Power and control. Most of the suicide bombers in Afghanistan are not Afghan and many of the insurgents are Arabs from other countries. The Taliban want to have control so they can keep women from having any opportunity to learn and expand their minds. They fight with Al Qaeda because they want an extreme form of Islam enforced and have all non-Muslims and those Muslims that do not believe as they do forced out of the country and the region.
They beheaded a 10 year old boy for giving bread to the police and when his father tried to intervene they hung him from a tree - do we really want to give them the chance to be in control again?

Johann, Vancouver
said

Here is the single most important question to ask yourself regarding our Mission in Afghanistan, "If we choose to close our eyes, will the problem go away?".

It's a rhetorical question; of course not.

We went to Afghanistan for all the right reasons, and we're still there fighting the good fight, some making the ultimate sacrifice. It's just unfortunate and truly dishonourable that our opposition parties think it's absolutely fine to politicize this good work and use it to pander for votes.

For Mr.Dion, with all due respect, it would do you well to stop thinking that this mission has a defined end date. Everybody knows that the terrorists at work have no set schedule. What makes you think they'll run on ours?

Mr.Layton, you've done well to suggest a greater emphasis on negotiation and reconstruction. That's the Canadian spirit; bring something of value to the discussion. Also, thank you for toning down on the "pull out" rhetoric.

Lessons from our past dictate. As painful as it is to know my fellow Canadian may have just lost a dear friend or loved one in the war, Canada needs to stand her ground. If we give an inch here we will give more than a mile. If we pull out "before the time is right" we will be handing the Afghan people back to the Taliban on a silver platter and to every other terrorist organization (including Al Qaeda) the moral victory. What will stop them then?

We are making progress and as time goes on more progress will be made. It doesn't take much to search the web for it. But there is obviously still work to be done. One day Afghanistan will stand on her own. That's all we want for her children, her people.

I'm only afraid of what the US is now planning for Iran. If Fox news reports ring true we're looking at another front opening up on their "War on Terror" within the next few months. And for those still confused about the Iraqi War, go see the documentary "No End in Sight".

Ernie Seedhouse
said

It's all very well to bemoan NATO. But if we need more troops or face defeat, we had better send the troops. Canada cannot afford the defeat. It's going to be hard enough to substain our economy after the American defeat in Iraq.

Catherine
said

Scheuer has it right in that we are expecting too much of our troops without providing sufficient boots on the ground. The problem is we are deploying the same way we were for 'peacekeeping' missions - we bring home troops after 6 months and throw in a new group who have to work on establishing trust all over again. It used to be when troops went to war they stayed until the job was done. I am not suggesting we go that far but I think we need to consider some changes in how we deploy our personnel.

It breaks my heart every time we have more casualties but I know that the Taliban are counting on us not having the stomach to stay the course and get the job done. We cannot afford to count on allies who have glass ones instead of brass ones to pick up the slack. We need to honour our troops by doing what it takes to succeed.

Linda
said

So what DOES motivate terrorists, anyway? If not freedom, democracy, or gender equality -- $$$ money?

Neil
said

Finally a person who makes sense. Too bad he wasn't the person in charge and that we can't all work together to support our troops in every way they need to be safe and get the job done. When the terrorists are here in Canada knocking our front door down it will be too late.

Kris
said

I agree that our contribution should be at very least matched by other NATO allies, but the fact is, we can't sit back and whine. We as Canadians for some reason think that whining is our national pastime, and that it is somehow as effective outside of our borders as it is inside. It's ridiculous to assume that anyone is going to do something just because we say it's the right thing to do, given our years of not doing very much internationally, either because we couldn't as a result our lack of resources or because it didn't suit our politician's agendas. Now we look to the world after years of excusing ourselves from real international efforts, legitimate good causes that our media kept off the radar, as a result of their constant assault of our military, and their relentless push to have us kept ignorant of how desperately our military is needed at home and abroad. The Liberals didn't help either, and of course there's the NDP, and the combined assault on our military, and the somewhat exaggerated warmongering nature of American conservatives that seems to have been pushed on Canadian conservatives. In any event, we can't stand up and ask anyone to do what we avoided doing for so many years, this conflict and our contribution, will give us back the moral authority which we lost of the the last decade or so.

We need to find creative ways to maintain our role, without overburdening the men and women doing the legwork.

Young Vet
said

It's time Canada took a break. Some may be fine with coffins coming home, but it's time they understand it's not happening in all NATO nations.

We went into Afghanistan to support our commitment to the alliance...but not all the NATO nations are contributing. Many have only sent in token observers, some won't let their troops out at night!!! Why are we taking on the lion's share of the combat while the parents of soldiers in other nations rest easily??? We have 4% of the population of NATO and have routinely contributed 10% of the troops from the start. We have neither the tax base or the military to keep this up. It's time the malingering NATO nations contribute equally. Canada can still contribute training staff and aid and return troops in five years...but the simply fact of the matter is we should stand up against this blatant abuse of our resources.

Canada withdrawing from Afghanistan will not mean the nation falls back into the stone age. We would be replaced and contribute in other ways. But the load MUST be shared equally.

Chris
said

Hopefuly the public will listen to Mr. Scheuer about the war. This is a conflict that we cannot afford to lose! Instead of debating whether to pull our troops out and by extension sending reassuring thoughts to the enemy we should be voicing support for the mission. I hate seeing flag covered caskets come home and my heart breaks for the families of the fallen but this is not Canada's Iraq war. The reasons for being there are right and noble. Our national security is at risk and/for those who say it's only at risk because we're in Afghanistan I would respectfuly suggest they truely don't understand the mindset of our enemy.

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