Majority want Afghan mission over by 2009: poll

The survey by Decima Research, released Monday to The Canadian Press, found that two-thirds of respondents want Canadian troops to come home when the current mandate from Parliament expires in February 2009.

Only 26 per cent of respondents believed the military mission should be extended "if that is necessary to complete our goals there.''

The results of the poll, conducted May 31 to June 4, were released as Prime Minister Stephen Harper discussed an extension to the mission with his Dutch counterpart in Ottawa.

Harper has repeatedly hinted that Canadian troops may have to stay on in Afghanistan's troubled southern provinces beyond February 2009 in order to ensure stability.

"You know that we can't set arbitrary deadlines and simply wish for the best,'' he said last month during a visit with the troops in Kandahar.

Jan Peter Balkenende, prime minister of the Netherlands, faces a similar debate, with Dutch troops mandated to work alongside the Canadians only until August 2008.

After meeting with Harper, Balkenende told a news conference on Parliament Hill that he will inform NATO by this August what his country intends to do.

"We will of course consult closely with Canada on this,'' said the Dutch prime minister. "That was one of the reasons for my visit today.''

Neither Balkenende nor Harper tipped his hand on an extension, but Harper said the two leaders discussed the matter at length and share "similar considerations, a similar evaluation of the situation, similar concerns.''

"I obviously will not pressure the prime minister in public,'' said Harper. "But just to say that we have valued tremendously the co-operation with the Netherlands in southern Afghanistan.''

Harper's hints appear to run counter to a Canadian sentiment that Decima CEO Bruce Anderson said runs strongly across every region, both genders, all age and income groups and among both urban and rural residents.

"Even Conservative party voters are at best split,'' said the pollster, noting self-identified Conservative supporters in the survey were divided 48-47 in favour of extending the mission.

That's not to say Canadians feel the mission is a wasted effort.

In the telephone survey of more than 1,000 respondents, Decima asked whether "sufficient progress'' is being made in three separate areas that are frequently used to defend the military mission.

A healthy plurality of respondents felt the mission was helping to rebuild Afghanistan for its people and fostering democracy. But respondents were more skeptical about the mission's goal of reducing the threat of global terrorism, with more people saying there's been insufficient progress than sufficient progress.

Anderson noted that not one of the three rationales received more than 50 per cent support as making sufficient progress.

"In each case we found that there wasn't really an overwhelming consensus,'' said the pollster.

"Given the size of the commitment, given the number of casualties that Canadians have experienced, this represents a problem, obviously.''

One diplomat and 56 Canadian soldiers have died in Afghanistan, and the mission has cost the country billions of dollars. Respondents in the Decima survey were twice as likely (62-29) to say the number of casualties is unacceptably high.

Conservative voters, said Anderson, were the only subgroup in the poll in which a majority, 52 per cent, felt the number of casualties has been acceptable.

Yet Anderson says the broad sentiment does not appear to be for an immediate military withdrawal, and Canadian reticence about an extension could change as the deadline approaches and the consequences of leaving become clearer.

The Dutch people face that decision this summer, but Canadians can delay it for several more months.

"Right now that deadline seems like it's some distance off into the future,'' said Anderson.

"What people are really saying, I think, through this poll is we're uncomfortable with a completely open-ended commitment.''

The poll's national results are considered accurate to within plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.