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Bank of Canada Gov. Mark Carney listens to a question during a news conference on the Monetary Policy Report in Ottawa, Thursday, Oct. 22, 2009. (Adrian Wyld / THE CANADIAN PRESS) Bank of Canada Gov. Mark Carney listens to a question during a news conference on the Monetary Policy Report in Ottawa, Thursday, Oct. 22, 2009. (Adrian Wyld / THE CANADIAN PRESS) Carney

Central bank warns Canadians may be borrowing too much

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CTV National News: Robert Fife on the update
The Canadian economy is expected to grow by 3.3 per cent in this year's fourth quarter, but Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney is concerned that low interest rates are causing Canadian to incur more debt.
CTV National News: BNN's Kim Parlee
A financial expert says Carney's concerns means the high Canadian dollar is here to stay for a while. Also, Ontario's historical deficit could mean taxes will be raised or government spending will decrease significantly.
CTV News Channel: BNN's Mark Bunting explains
Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney says the strength of the loonie has been driven by the weakness of the U.S. dollar, not demand for Canadian commodities.
CTV News Channel: Mark Carney, BoC
The governor of the Bank of Canada says that the projected recovery will be somewhat more modest than the average, while inflation is expected to rise.
CTV News Channel: Mark Carney takes questions
The governor of the Bank of Canada takes media questions on how economic projections were made, the impact of the dollar and the recovery of the housing market.
CTV News Channel: Derek Burleton, TD Bank
A senior economist of TD Bank Financial Group discusses the pros and cons of government deficit spending and the long-term impact of this practice.
CTV News Channel: BNN's Michael Kane explains
As investors keep an eye on the loonie, The Bank of Canada is releasing its quarterly monetary policy report Thursday, which is expected to explain why the high dollar is having a negative impact on the economy.

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Bank of Canada Gov. Mark Carney listens to a question during a news conference on the Monetary Policy Report in Ottawa, Thursday, Oct. 22, 2009. (Adrian Wyld / THE CANADIAN PRESS) Bank of Canada Gov. Mark Carney listens to a question during a news conference on the Monetary Policy Report in Ottawa, Thursday, Oct. 22, 2009. (Adrian Wyld / THE CANADIAN PRESS) Carney

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Bank of Canada Gov. Mark Carney listens to a question during a news conference on the Monetary Policy Report in Ottawa, Thursday, Oct. 22, 2009. (Adrian Wyld / THE CANADIAN PRESS)

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Date: Thu. Oct. 22 2009 10:27 PM ET

The Bank of Canada's governor sounded the alarm about the long-term cost of massive borrowing, both by governments and ordinary Canadians, in a news conference Thursday.

While Mark Carney was optimistic that Canada's economy would recover throughout 2010, he expressed concern that historically low interest rates might have too many Canadians garnering too much debt.

"People should manage their affairs prudently in anticipation that at some point rates will return to a more normal level," Carney warned.

Borrowing by Canadians grew at a brisk seven per cent rate this year, far outpacing gains in the economy.

"We do have some concerns about it. Obviously consumer borrowing cannot grow faster than the economy forever," Carney said.

Carney said the bank will "retain flexibility" in policies like keeping interest rates low or printing more cash. It is expected to keep interest rates at 0.25 per cent until at least June 2010. It is the lowest rate Canada has ever seen.

"The job of the Bank of Canada is to consider all factors that are having an effect on inflation in Canada," Carney said.

The central back said Canada's recovery from the recession is growing stronger, but Canadians shouldn't expect things to return to normal any time soon as the soaring loonie holds the economy back.

In its latest outlook on the economy, the bank says Canada is making progress, but predicts the country's economy won't be fully back on track until the end of 2011.

"The stronger than assumed Canadian dollar ... could act as a significant further drag for growth," Carney said.

He predicts the high loonie -- which closed slightly down at 95.44 cents Thursday -- will deter foreigners from buying Canadian products, which could shrink growth to lower than what is expected.

The bank says Canada's economy is expected to grow two per cent in the third quarter, and 3.3 per cent during the final three months of 2009.

That's a jump from the original estimates of 1.3 per cent and three per cent that it made in July for the third and fourth quarters respectively.

Responding to the predictions, the Toronto Stock Exchange's composite index closed up 91.35 points to finish Thursday at 11,533.37.

The reasons for the bank's positive attitude towards growth are stable commodity prices for products like oil, increased consumer confidence, and the fact that global markets have stabilized faster than originally expected.

It says government stimulus and consumer demand is spurring growth in the second half of this year.

The bank is predicting the overall annual growth to be lower than forecasted, with three per cent in 2010 and 3.3 per cent in 2011.

It says that all the predictions depend on whether world powers will continue to enact good policies, including building up reserves in the U.S., Europe and China.

Carney said the bank is monitoring the housing market, and said it has some concerns about a housing bubble similar to the one in the U.S., but that structural differences between Canadian and U.S. banking systems will likely prevent a similar situation from happening north of the border.

At least one Canadian economist says Canada has managed to get through economic problems in the past and is poised to do so again soon, albeit at a slower rate.

"I think we can take some comfort in the fact that our deficits as a share of the economy have been worse," Derek Burleton, a senior economist at the TD Bank Financial Group, told CTV News Channel.

"The debt load in the 90s was a lot higher."

"It's going to be a very slow recovery," said Burleton. "There's good reason to think the cruising speed of our economy going forward is not going to be what it has been in the past."

Comments are now closed for this story

Ross in Burlington
said
0 0

Mr Carney painted a rosy picture of the economy and how it would rebound quickly as Canada was doing much better than other countries. Our dollar and the TSX started to climb and then the manufacturing sector started to complain that the high dollar was killing jobs and we should have a low dollar in order to compete. Mr. Carney then voices the gloom and doom speech and our dollar drops 2cents in one day. Now he is forcasting a long rough recovery. The truth is it may be 2-3 years before we recover and quit worrying about our dollar it is the American dollar we should be concerned about.


Grant in BC
said
0 0

David in Ottawa:When times are bad, Canadians like to blame our close relationship as a reason that we feel economic pain. They forget however, that during the good times our close relationship with the US benifits us WAY more than it hurts us in the bad times. Many other countries in the world would KILL to have a huge consumer like the US living right next door. Our standard of living in Canada is largely thanks to the US. They are our best customers, we should treat them that way once in a while.


Yeah Right
said
0 0

Last July, BOC predicted dollar would be worth 87 cents US. Now it's predicting 96 cents. Carney doesn't know what he's saying half the time. He mixes up inflation of money supply with inflation of dollar value.


GP
said
0 0

To Doug@BCI agree with your comments about the low dollar and its correlation to being a subsidy. However I completely disagree with your assertion that Americans are somehow more altruistic. To the contrary it’s been a decade since Americans have paid for the value of services they receive or the level of lifestyle they have. The US government has been subsidizing their way of life through, for example, artificially low gas prices to ridiculously low taxes. Additionally Americans have staggering social issues that they are going to have to come to terms with or they will simply implode on themselves but the sheer magnitude of the problems they face.Here in Canada we pay significantly higher taxes and, for the most part have addressed our social issues in a more caring and comprehensive way. For example, drug addiction is an addiction issue, not a justice issue. In order to solve the problem you treat addiction. Throwing drug addicts in jail might satisfy a society’s need to punish someone for bad behaviour, but it does not solve the problem. Another example, in the US justice is more about retribution, not rehabilitation. Statistics (not perception) show we have much better results. We only get these results if we are willing to think outside the box...sometimes it works sometimes not.If however you are suggesting that Americans are more nationalistic, you are correct. There are more right wing nut jobs in the US than here.


The Other Lowell in BC
said
0 0

Tied to the US economy that is still floundering, money being thrown around by the government, right left and centre with no apparent accountability as to who gets it and what it is for are things that do not give me a comfortable feeling. I would hope that BOC would do anything in its power to keep the dollar down. That will be best for the recovery process.


GP
said
0 0

A bumpy road...that is an understatement. Our recovery will have to end in downturn or protracted period of flat growth. There is just too much money being printed to not have some type of negative repercussion...inflation and/or higher taxes. I think the boys in Ottawa have been drinking too much Kool-Aid, again. Additionally there is mounting evidence that the pyramid scheme, known as the stock market, is once again up to it old tricks. Besides a new round of bonuses, the latest is the packaging of Life Insurance policies into the same types of derivatives that caused the financial crisis. Derivatives being nothing more than a way to make money by betting on the performance of various pieces of the market...ya tell me that isn’t a complete scam for insiders. Ultimately if the financial system is dependent on the markets, and the economy is dependent on the financial system, as long as the market is more like a pyramid scheme than a way to create sustainable growth we are stuck in a loop where only the very few people at the top of the pyramid gain and the rest of us pay and pay and pay. Eventually the ability to pay will end, after which history shows us how ugly a collapse can get.


Raj
said
0 0

I would rather be in Canada, than is the US! the road there will be even bumpier.


Vic
said
0 0

"quantitative easing"! Printing money to make money instead of appreciation Loonies to destroy our economy! Like American people issue unlimited Geenback to buy whatever they want from outside to boost their wealth.


Jon in London ON
said
0 0

What recovery?We owe 6 billion dollars in national debt. We are intimately tied to the USA and they owe more than a trillion dollars in national debt. It will have to be paid back.Don't kid yourself folks - we are in deep do-do. And if you think that the adoption of left socialist economic central planning is the way out......sorry, but you can't create wealth by dividing it.Give your kids a big hug, cause they are gonna be straddled with it.


David H. in Ottawa
said
0 0

It's strange, I have an interest in the financial markets and politics, and I constantly watch the price of fuel and the Canadian dollar. What I don't understand is why so many people seem to be on the defence for the United States? Our biggest problem is not so much to blame on the conservatives, liberals or those other parties, but possibly, our history of close bonds with the U.S. I tend to believe that if we had kept our trading markets more open to trading in other markets, Canada would have been in a much better position today? I work in Insurance, and insurers know not to put all their eggs in one basket, this is known as spreading the risk. It's time to widen our markets, and have less to do with the U.S. Instead of everyone being so upset about the increase in the loonie, should we not be celebrating?


Doug @ BC
said
0 0

The low $CAN was used by the Liberal government as a competetive advantage for a long time. WHile it did make Canadian prodcuts cheaper in foreign markets,it had at least two major flaws.The first one being that the $CAN dollar at 64 cents,was little more than a giant subsidy to business,which was paid for by consumers in the form of higher prices.It was just as evil as the billions of dollars we spent on bail out programs in recent times.The second issue I have with a lower $CAN,is that it allowed foreigners to buy up thousands of successful Canadian companies at bargain basement prices.That left us with taxpayers subsidizing the unsuccessful companies just to protect some jobs at home.

The USA may look to be in deep do-do.But they still have many advantages over Canada.One being the fact that the whole world wants to do business with the USA.Few get a fat rat's behind about dealing with our small population.And perhaps more importantly,Americans will fight to the death to defend their country.Even during this tough time,they are lining up to ask "what can I do for my country".Canadians,facing the very same kind of economic issues,are busy asking "what can my country do for me"? I want "free day care.I want "free transit.I want "free universities.I want "free" places to shoot my drugs.I want "free' dental care.I want "free" housing.Etc,etc,etc. They will resolve their issues long before we do because Americans place the needs of their nation ahead of personal needs.While greedy Canadians think about how they can get someone else to pay for the things they want for "free".As if those programs actually do come for "free".Or as if the government actually had money of it's own to give out for "free".


Judy Cross
said
0 0

Mark Carney, like Paulson, Benanke and Greenspan comes to us from 13 years with Goldman-Sachs. If you think he's in the game playing for Canada....well, how would you like to buy a bridge on Wall Street.


Sum
said
0 0

I'm still living a normal life...good, bad Life goes on!


reece
said
0 0

Recovery without jobs? Wow, these people truly deserve the hefty bonuses. Only magicians can pull that off. 600,000 Americans lost jobs last month....our output will be curbed for such reasons. Always give the bad news in bite sized pieces and then little by little the people will finally get it.


Troglodyte
said
0 0

The new "normal" is no normal?


Portes
said
0 0

It does not take a geninus to figure out what the BOC just said. we have been warned for the last year. of course all the Liberal backers will now blame the Conservaties for this problem and if they were in power they would have done the same thing so I say before you start spouting Liberal propaganda check your facts. Once the inflation hits the US which I figure mid next year our Loonie will drop like a stone. So just hang in there and in a year we will be OK


simon
said
0 0

""""The current burst in activity will last only a few months before leading to a hard climb out of the recession.""""Sure the burst in activity will end when the Conservatives have replaced all the Doors and Door Knobs in all Public Bathrooms using Tory stimulus money...... Then the hard part begins......


conductor274
said
0 0

To Patrick SW Ontario. You mention Jack Layton screaming while you use capitol letters to let everyone know you're screaming your response. You can scream as loud as you want but facts are facts. Read the records. Harper stated if there was going to be a recession we'd already be in it. Then the recession hit. The rest is history. So please try to be accurate when you scream ;=)


Marie
said
0 0

The bank and Carney also said a year ago that Canada would not be in a recession. How can anyone believe him now? He's a Reform/Con implant and he's preaching their blind lies. I for one am not taking him on his word because to be truthful, his word means nothing.


US Doomed
said
0 0

US money supply is inflated. Anything connected to the US economy is going to suffer. Carney, stop lying.


Patrick (S-W Ontario)
said
0 0

to conductor

Harper wasn't wrong before the recession hit - he's just a SMART economist that knows that IF YOU SAY SOMETHING BAD WILL HAPPEN TO THE ECONOMY - IT WILL. People will panic and it will lead to a worse recession than what it could be. The last thing we needed was Jack Layton as PM screaming to every news conference "THE SKY IF FALLING!". Slow and steady will get us back on track.


Abi , Saint John
said
0 0

General Inflation occurs as a result of increase in aggregate domestic demand, couple with a sub par domestic output that will temper price climb due to demand outstripping supply. Your assumption that American inflation will cause the greenback to outpace the loonie leaves much to be desired. For inflation to be sustaintable to a level that will cause alarm, the domestic (US or CAN) economy must be operating at near capacity; production and output is high, inventory is low,there is pent up demand, unemployment is less than 5%, and labour market is tight. None of these is about to happen in the US in the next 18 months, and such Bank of Canada was/is right in its policy update.


conductor274
said
0 0

It's all guess work. Especially with Harper and his crew at the helm. They were wrong about the economy before the financial meltdown happened, they denied it would happen, they refused to implement any stimulus package until forced to do so by the three opposition parties and now they are lying about how much stimulus money has been received by the provinces and municipalities. So how can the Bank of Canada possible make an accurate prediction about the financial future of the country when the input is so faulty?


Dave in Whitby
said
0 0

OIL will be a big factor . I expected OIL and Gasoline price to stay low and the Canadian dollar around 90 cent level . Enery price effect everyone and force the average person to cutback on there spending . With the High dollar and the "Buy American" idea Obama has , I could not predict what will happen the next 6 months .


annie
said
0 0

This report doesn't mention the expected mass inflation that is expected to hit the U.S. in the (near) future.If and when this occurs, no one will need worry about our currency against the U.S., as their costs will rise dramatically.


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