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Who would be best for Canada: McCain or Obama?

Who would be best for Canada: McCain or Obama?

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By: Jered Stuffco, CTV.ca News

Date: Sat. Sep. 20 2008 6:03 AM ET

While many Canadians, including NDP Leader Jack Layton, have a blatant crush on presidential hopeful Barack Obama, experts aren't convinced Canada would be better off with the charismatic Democrat in the White House.

"On pocketbook issues, the sensible thing to do would be to hope for a McCain presidency," said Greg Anderson, a U.S. foreign policy expert at the University of Alberta's political science department.

Faced with an economic downturn and the Wall Street investment meltdown, a Democratic president would be more likely to build protectionist walls around the U.S. economy -- which would have dire effects on Canadian industry, Anderson told CTV.ca.

"That could be very bad news," he said.

Anderson also pointed to Obama's campaign rhetoric regarding the North American Free Trade Agreement's "devastating" effects on the U.S. economy as potentially harmful, as it sends a negative message about trade and could signal a shift with Canada's largest trading partner.

While Obama has softened his stance on NAFTA, Anderson said the Democrat would be more likely to implement stiffer regulations on American industry.

"I think you're going to see a flurry to place new regulations on the financial sector," said Anderson, forcing regulators in Canada to respond.

On Friday, regulators here were mulling a ban on short-selling stocks after the U.S. decided to suspend the practice.

McCain, meanwhile, would be "more resistant" to increased red tape.

Obama's position on fossil fuels could also pose problems for our resource-based economy.

Recently, Obama's top energy adviser Jason Grume said emission levels from Alberta's oil sands were "unacceptably high" and could conflict with a proposal to green the U.S. economy.

In the long run, however, an Obama White House could force Canada to pursue greener energy sources, said Stephen Clarkson, a professor of political economy at the University of Toronto specializing in Canada -U.S. relations.

Calling the oil sands development "counter productive" because it's expensive and uses clean-burning natural gas to produce dirty-burning oil, Clarkson said Obama could be a positive influence on energy issues.

A different story on national security

Relating to security, both presidential candidates support an increased U.S. presence in Afghanistan, but Clarkson said a dove in the White House would be better than a hawk.

"Somebody who is still pursuing a Bush approach to global affairs is going to continue the disaster, which affects Canada as well as everybody else."

The Bush administration has come under heavy criticism for pursuing belligerent policies, like the invasion of Iraq, which critics say have made the world a more dangerous place since the September 2001 terrorist attacks.

Obama, on the other hand, has said he would enter direct negotiations with Iran and would oversee a pullout of U.S. troops from Iraq over a 16-month timetable.

McCain, an ardent supporter of the Iraq campaign who takes an aggressive stance on Iran, blasted Obama for these policies, and said last month that Obama "would rather lose a war in order to win a political campaign."

Inevitably, though, Clarkson downplayed the presidential outcome and said other factors, like Congress and big business, are more important for Canada-U.S. relations.

"The president isn't able to make major changes on his own without Congress supporting, so we have to know what kind of Congress there will be."

Still, Clarkson added that personalities can be a factor.

"On internal matters, it matters a lot about how the two (national leaders) get on," he said.

"If we elect Harper and they elect Obama, the two countries will be going on different courses -- one further to the right and one back towards the centre."

That sentiment was echoed by Michael Hart, a professor of trade policy at Carleton University who worked as an adviser during NAFTA negotiations.

"You work with whoever's there," he said, adding the U.S. wants a co-operative partner.

"What the United States is looking for is ... a co-operative partner, not one who sits on the sidelines and says 'oh, we couldn't do that!'"

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