Tory support plunges in wake of controversies: poll

OTTAWA — A new poll suggests Stephen Harper's Conservatives have lost their big lead over the Liberals in the wake of recent controversies, plunging six percentage points in popular support in just one week.

The Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey puts the Tories at 30 per cent support, in a statistical tie with the Liberals who are up four points to 32 per cent.

"It's a pretty significant drop on a one-week basis,'' said Harris-Decima president Bruce Anderson.

"We don't see this kind of movement in the numbers very often.''

Support for the Tories dropped across all regions and demographic groups.

The striking shift follows several controversies which may be taking a toll on the governing party:

Former Tory prime minister Brian Mulroney's admission that he accepted cash-stuffed envelopes from arms lobbyist Karlheinz Schreiber and kept the payments secret for years.
Heavy criticism of Canada's position at the climate-change summit in Bali.
Political fallout from a critical shortage of medical isotopes due to the shutdown of the Chalk River nuclear reactor.

Although the decline in Tory fortunes may prove short-lived, Anderson said the recent controversies all "have the potential to weaken attachment to the Conservatives and certainly kept the government from renewing its focus on its throne speech and tax-cutting measures.''

Anderson said the poll underscores the "fragility'' of the Tories' support, which has bounced up and down all year but never reached the levels required to win Prime Minister Stephen Harper's coveted majority.

The Tories have been unable to capitalize on the weakness of Stephane Dion's leadership of the Liberals, who have remained relatively close behind the Conservatives throughout the year, occasionally surpassing them.

Nevertheless, Anderson said the fundamentals underlying Conservative support "remain fairly sturdy.'' He suggested Tory popularity may rebound in the new year as attention shifts away from the nation's capital during the six-week parliamentary Christmas break.

Indeed, over the last year, support for the ruling party has seemed to rise whenever Parliament is not sitting. Anderson said that reflects Canadians' ambivalence about the government, with most being neither enthusiastically in favour nor passionately opposed.

As a result, he said support tends to weaken when the government is "on the stage in Ottawa with the kleig lights of Parliament on it.''

In the latest poll, support for the NDP stood at 15 per cent nationally, while the Green party was at 12 per cent.

The news was especially bad for the Conservatives in vote-rich Ontario and Quebec, which are key to any hope of winning a majority government.

In Ontario, the Liberals scored 41 per cent support, widening their lead over the Tories who stood at 31 per cent.

In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois remained in the lead with 40 per cent, but the Liberals had moved up to second place with 23 per cent followed by the Tories at 17 per cent _ an 11-point drop.

Anderson speculated that the government's reluctance to sign onto global greenhouse gas reduction targets in Bali cost the Tories support among urban, women and Quebec voters, who tend to be more environmentally conscious.

Tory popularity also slid dramatically even in the party's traditional strongholds and among groups usually most supportive.

In Alberta, for instance, Tory support plummeted almost 20 points to 45 per cent. In British Columbia, support dropped 17 points to 31 per cent.

Anderson put the slide in those two provinces down to the fact that western voters tend to be most frustrated with real or perceived political corruption and the most adamant in wanting a public inquiry into the Mulroney-Schreiber affair.

In Atlantic Canada, where the Conservatives had been leading for most of the year, the Liberals edged ahead with 36 per cent to the Tories' 33 per cent.

Among male voters, Tory support dropped to 32 per cent from 40 per cent. And among rural voters, the Tories sank eight points to 35 per cent.

The telephone poll of just over 1,000 Canadians was conducted Thursday through Monday and has a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points 19 times in 20. The margin of error is larger for regional or demographic sub-samples.

Comments are now closed for this story

al
said

What a boring way to make a living, taking polls. I am happy we have a government that doesnt govern by polls.

Gerry (Montreal)
said

It is obvious that the Conversatives are a minority. All parties are minorities, but we have a clear sense that most Canadians whether they are Greens, Liberals, NDPers or the Bloc are against the rightist position of the Conservatives. All other parties show greater support for the environment, integrity in office (particularly Stephane Dion) and greater flexibility to embrace critical thinking within the party itself. I think these percentages are a trend. Frankly, people are fatigued by the Conservatives' obsessive blaming of the Liberals.

An Albertan
said

This is the REAL story:

In Alberta, Tory support plummeted almost 20 points to 45 per cent.

The majority of Albertans FOR the First Time, are AGAINST the Conservatives, both federaly and provincialy. Harper CANNOT win a minority, let alone a majority, without sweeping Alberta.

Even Albertans cannot stomach the Conservative party of Canada anymore.

Guy
said

If everyone is so sure that this is the case why not have an election. Statistics are only as good as what you want to make them say. Its all a numbers game to play on peoples minds. Statisticly speaking most people just want to back a winner, therefore for all we know the Liberals can put out this poll that puts them in a positive light. Like I said before if your so sure have an election.

Terry Armstrong
said

Yes, with all the hard work the Conservatives have done over the last two years is enough to give them a Majority in the Sping. If the Liberals get in again we are doomed. Out of the question you can take that to the bank. Consevative Majority coming in the sping.

Steve G
said

Looks like the Conservatives can change their marketing slogan from "Canada's New Government" to "Canada's Former Government". I get such a kick out of how the right-wingers here cling to a poll that puts the Conservatives ahead like it's a life boat cast adrift from a sinking ship, but as soon as the Liberals take the lead, it becomes some sort of media conspiracy.

Ian
said

Are we supposed to believe all the polls? These just show the fickle nature of the electorate. The only poll that counts is the one taken on election day. No politician worth his salt will play to the polls. We need principled leadership. That's what we have from Mr. Harper.

Ken
said

How come these polling guys never call me ? ...the only calls I get are from charities asking for money !!

Al K
said

Again, this is just another poll. The election is still months off, anything could happen!

STOP EMBARRASSING CANADA
said

It's about time the Conservatives start to fall again. They really showed their true colours in Bali. Canada was a laughing stock and seen as entirely unwilling to work on an effective environmental deal.

Rejection of Aboriginal rights at the United Nations, take away the rights of Gays, and now embarrassing us on the international stage. Great party...

We've gone from being a respected world leader to a joke.

brenda
said

Alright, this is where all of us Conservatives tell the polsters we're voting Liberal, and then at election time, we all get out and vote Conservative!

There's the new Conservative agenda. Love those polls!

Dave C
said

Tories up, Tories down.

We've seen the same poll over the last year again and again.

I still say, give Mr. Harper and election in English Canada against Mr. Dion, and he'll win a majority mandate.

Bill
said

Don't worry about the numbers there is no way Dion can get elected. Go Mr. Harper go keep up the good work don't worry about polls.

Gail Thomas
said

Polls are nothing more than a snapshot in time, but it just shows how fickle voters really are. At least this gives the media some more news now that parliament is out and our leftist media can still control and spin what the public hears.

Concerned
said

Although this result may change in the new year, I think it is a "wake up" call to the Conservative Party of Canada. They need to play less macho "hard ball" and pay closer to the issues that are not going away, such as climate change, the fall out from Bali, etc.

And real or perceived, siding with a president who is on his last "hurrah" is not to their advantage.

I still believe Prime Minister is a strong leader but for many he is still seen as uncompromising, strong-willed (to a fault) and less inclusive than Dion, particularly in the way he handles the media and his own cabinet. Real or perceived, time for a change in strategy.

Time to pay heed risk losing it all.

bruno
said

Consistently the polls show that they will not get a majority. Thank goodness, their views are obviosly not what the majority want. Environmental policy being one example. They should stop acting as if they have a majority, because they don't, nor will they if they keep going the way that they are going.

John T
said

Having a minority government is only good if it behaves like a minority government.

The Conservatives do not have a national mandate, and Harper's pettiness and autocracy are becoming tiresome.

These poll results give the sense that Canadians are increasingly uncomfortable with the Conservatives, and feel their values and national character threatened by the prospect, however dim, of a Conservative majority government.

Greg
said

I think the results speak to the political fragility and instability that arises in a system when voters focus on the personalities of political leaders (brand names) rather than on the underlying values of platforms (the actual products). I wonder whether people turn off and on to soap (for example) with the same speed. Likely not.
It all comes back down to, "You can't judge a book by its cover."

Kanataian
said

This is not a surprise that as many Canadians support the Liberals (who are re-building mind you) and a Tory party which continues to embarass the Nation internationally and be out of touch with a majority of the people's values.

The Tories need to revamp their appeal to voters who do not believe in their failed moral policies and exceedingly close US ties and its illegal foreign agression.

We have a war that a strong majority of Canadians oppose, social programs that have become extinct, new forms of corporate welfare from the state, no action whatsoever on global warming, increased pollution and water consumption in the oil sands, $22 Billion committed to the military since they came to power, no answers for unaccounted campaign contributions, and tax cuts that primarily benefit the wealthy. This is Mulroneyism all over again and that ship sunk like a rock in the Dead Sea.

Personally, I do not mind some of the approaches of the Tories regarding crime (except the persecution of benevolent marijuna users), but promoting extreme right wing moral values that are completly out of touch with a modern Canada must be revamped and reconsidered if this party wishes to harness a majority government. Imposing fundementalist moral beliefs through western politics is incompatable.

This has been the most embarassing year for Canadians on the international stage ever.

The time for change has come. The Tories have tried, but failed miserably so far. They still have a chance to change some of their regressive approaches to issues that face this Nation, which have been only been allowed to become worse since they stumbled into power.

I would be interested to see what a minority Liberal government can do, surely it can not be worse?

Brian
said

Polls mean nothing. Put Harper against Dion in an election campaign and Harper will win a majority, hands down.

MRM
said

Unfortuanately the Liberal and NDP campaign of misinformation and smear tactics are taking their toll. No doubt because of the assistance provided them by the media who miss no opportunity to misrepresent the facts in order to present the government in a negative light. The Tory's compete failure to get their message out must also take some of the blame.

EMG
said

The final nail in the coffin for me was seeing John Baird doing all he could to weaken the Bali conference and the lamenting the fact that the final agreement was weakened. This was typical of this government. Find Harper Tories in the dictionary next to hypocrisy.

Charles
said

I'm starting to seriously wonder how accurate these polls are. One day the Tories are well above the Liberals, the next day they're trailing. The pollsters say it's due to a volatile elecorate, I say it's due to asking questions a certain way that makes people more prone to giving a certain answer.

David in Exeter
said

Let the election come and let's see the Liberals' platform - not to mention leadership or lack there of. Polls mean nothing right now - the real poll on election day will tell the truth that Canadians are pleased with the Conservatives. Although not perfect they actually have been getting the job done, taking a stand and implementing policy that impacts Joe and Jane Canadian.

GG
said

I think by in large this shows how fickle Canadians are...any little bauble and the soft vote can switch. More importantly I think it sends us a signal, given an adequate time in office, that Canadians are seeing through the partisan rhetoric and are returning to Canadian values...which are typically centric and tolerant and modest. We like balance. The Conservatives are way toooooo far to the right on most issues that are important to Canadians ie. global warming/environment and the war in Afghanistan and the Liberals have yet to re-estblish their polular brand with any solid platform or leadership. The numbers indicate in this poll that given every opportunity Harper has no captivated Canadians on our core values and will leak back to the natural centrist party- the Liberals. If they ever get their act in order they will return to power. They need to get new blood with high integrity people working for centrist Canadians and balancing the left and right on any issue appropriately not based on any one ideology. Canadians do not prefer a political party too far in one direction. I think that even though Dion has not shown tremendous outreach and connectivity to Canadians. he his trusted, he has integrity, the party is going for new blood and fresh ideas and have hit on the major federal issue that almost all Canadians concur with..the environment. Harpers distain for this issue and his positioning of Canadians that is not anywhere near aligned to the Canadian publics interest is deeply unsetling. Harpers bully style and non transparency sends fear into Canadians- the old hidden agenda just wont go away. Canadians are witnessing that the Conservatives are no better at scandal than any other previos government. Their walk and their talk just dont jive.

ance
said

yawn... another poll that only serves to indicate that no one is overly impressed with any of our so called leaders...

this includes me...

YEB
said

The one that counts is the one on election day... Bring it on ! Oh yes, polling prior to Chritmas, please give me a break where mind sets are on families and friends....

Joel
said

We've seen shifting poll numbers for two years now. It seems the electorate is quite fickle, so i wouldn't put much stock in those numbers. Next week the tories will be up again, probably.

Leo Lehman
said

It looks like it is all adding up now for the conservatives, The Environment, ethics and their own mismanagement of government are now starting to bite them.

I guess it is true that you can fool some of the people all the time of all of the people some of the time. And people are now seeing the true conservative party as a mixture of the arrogance and ethical promiscuity of the Mulroney PC party and the right wing agenda of the Reform/Alliance party.

It's only a matter of time until the voters turf these guys out of office.

Stephen
said

Where are the other parties' levels of support?

Allan Eizinas
said

While any poll is a snapshot in time this one also indicates that the Harperites had already hit their ceiling.

The �New� Conservatives are still seen as the Alliance/Reform affiliate and are doomed to the same limited maximum support. Harpers management style has done nothing to dissuade this perception and as long as Harper and his inner circle are in charge, a minority is their greatest attainable aspiration.

Bart in Montreal
said

Nice to see the public waking up and seeing what Harper is doing to our great country. I can hardly wait until we have an election and Harper and his cronies are out of office and we have a chance to restore our reputation.

Peter
said

Former Tory prime minister Brian Mulroney's admission that he accepted cash-stuffed envelopes from arms lobbyist Karlheinz Schreiber: This one is going to hurt for sometime to come. The reason is that all the loud noise regarding the accountablity act. Our gov. doesn't understand that; using their own words---to do the walk and talk---tough talk rings a few bell for a while, but honesty is admired by all; when that fails; than comes judgment time; perhaps, just perhaps,judgment is knocking at our Gov. door . . . we'll have to wait and see

Roger Armbruster
said

There is no word here as to when the poll was taken. Was it right in the middle of the ballahoo in the midst of the Bali Conference when environmental cult leaders were lambasting our government, or was it at the end of the Conference which came to a greater resolution of clarity and joint plans for the future.

The Brian Mulroney-Karlheinz Schreiber is unlikely to be a factor, inasmuch as the polls were not even affected when it appeared that Brian Mulroney might be connected to Airbus in some way, or that he might have made a specific deal with Schreiber while he was still Prime Minister.

Now that the evidence points otherwise, and that other polls show that the vast majority of Canadians do not even want a full-scale inquiry, the evidence would point to this being a nonissue.

Brad B
said

I'm not quite sure why the fallout (no pun intended) from the nuclear isotopes should affect peoples' opinions of our government. Being a long-time Conservative, even I'm not happy about their performance at Bali. I understand, and even defend, their position, but they have to come part way. It's not all or nothing, and they really need to stop doing nothing. Start listening, Mr Harper et al...I would really hate to have Mr Dion as our PM simply due to a knee-jerk reaction.

Louise
said

Aren't we getting a bit polled out!

Allan MacDougall
said

As eager as I am to see Stephen Harper's government drop in the polls, this is just another poll. Sometimes poll results are released very close to one another but from different pollsters, and the variations are often higher than the margin of error. With that said, I think it's important not to take polls too seriously, especially when those polls are measuring political will in a democracy.

The only poll that matters to me is the poll that happenes on election day. That's the poll which will give a chance for us all to remove Harper from power.

Bob
said

Cons and Libs statistically tied - what joy in the media and coming one week before Christmas who could ask for anything more?

Tim
said

Polls come and go and basically mean nothing. The sad part is that there's apparently enough people out there who are still foolish enough to vote Liberal with their lame duck leader. The poll must have been conducted in Toronto alone.

Craig Smith
said

Yeah electoral reform is needed so badly when neither of the two main parties can even come close to achieving the majority of the vote. Yet rule Canada as if they have a majority. Yet Most Liberals and Conservatives are happy with this system we have. Sad.

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