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Weak U.S. dollar sends volatile loonie soaring
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The Canadian Press
Date: Tue. Oct. 23 2007 7:45 PM ET
TORONTO The Canadian dollar soared a cent and a half Tuesday, retracing the previous day's big loss, on the strength of solid consumer activity and renewed doubts about the American dollar.
The loonie surged to a new 33 1/2-year high of 103.9 cents US but ended the session up 1.51 cents at 103.51 cents US., a day after a move by Bank of Canada governor David Dodge to talk down the currency had helped prod it down by 1.55 cents US.
"Yesterday's move looked a little bit exaggerated and I'd say today's move is probably to a degree exaggerated as well,'' Shaun Osborne, currency strategist at TD Securities, said Tuesday afternoon.
"But overall the trend toward a stronger Canadian dollar remains pretty much in place.''
Tuesday's gain came after Statistics Canada reported retail sales rose 0.7 per cent in August to $34.5 billion, after decreases in June and July. This suggested the economy and consumer sentiment maintained strength in spite of financial market unease.
"Even in the heart of the August credit turmoil and equity market swoon, Canadian consumers kept right on going,'' commented Douglas Porter of BMO Capital Markets.
"Looking ahead, consumer spending will be supported by rising wages, the strong likelihood of tax cuts, and the tantalizing probability of a windfall of lower prices thanks to the loonie's rampage.''
Camilla Sutton, currency strategist at Scotia Capital, said Monday's pullback in the currency had been provoked by a revival in the U.S. dollar amid risk-averse fears that global growth could slow and on Tuesday "we've seen the market really turn around and the U.S. dollar revert'' to its weakening trend.
"We've seen a much better day in terms of equities, which has returned the market's view to U.S. dollar weakness ahead,'' Sutton said.
"I think that's fair. You know, we have a (U.S. Federal Reserve) meeting next week that most likely will cut interest rates, and that should continue to drive some U.S. dollar weakness.''
For the Canadian dollar, regarded as a resource-dependent currency, a key factor is the price of oil. Tuesday's loonie strength came despite a slight slippage in the oil price -- which had tumbled by more than $1.00 a barrel on Monday after touching record highs of US$90 a barrel last week.
George Davis, senior technical analyst at RBC Capital Markets, noted "very aggressive buying'' of the Canadian dollar Tuesday.
"I think that people are reacting to overall U.S. dollar weakness,'' Davis said, "and there may be some potential merger-and-acquisition-related flows involved in this move as well.''
Cash is flooding into Canada as Rio Tinto pays investors for their Alcan Inc. shares to conclude the US$38.1-billion takeover of Canada's largest aluminum company. Those investors are expected to convert much of this money into Canadian dollars, increasing demand for loonies.
"We may have seen some of that flow this morning,'' TD's Osborne said.
"Volatility is the optimal word,'' he added. "We do think the trend will moderate ...but the risk in the short run certainly appears to be to the downside'' for the American dollar.
"Investors are still fairly negative on U.S. economic prospects.''
Apparently forgotten Tuesday was Dodge's weekend warning that the loonie's surge from 95 cents US at the beginning of September, up from 86 cents at the start of the year, was "abnormally quick'' and defies economic fundamentals.
"It's a difficult trend to fight,'' said Scotia Capital's Sutton.
"I would advise not trying to fight that trend and continue to play it to the upside until we really see it start to break down. And the catalyst could very well be (cheaper) oil, but we'll need a few more days to see whether or not that's going to come to fruition.''
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It is about time - as a grandparent I have watched our kids (who were allowed to fail although I do remember some nagging on our part) learn, I have watched our children now micro-manage their children. A big part of it is the fact that there are predators out there and an extreme reluctance on the parents part to alllow freedom that might result in the children becoming victims.
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Mike
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PVT
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Gary R.
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We are inter-woven in ways the average person cannot see, nor will ever need to...
Let's ask a simple question: Of all the countries in the world to pick as neighbors, who would be the best choice? I think the US of A wins hands down.
Quit your crowing about the US hard times a'coming...the pendulum can swing both ways, and we already have issues with forest products, etc.
I suggest you ALL get on your MP's phone lines and start complaining like heck about this Korea Free Trade issue! We ain't seen nothing yet!
ChrisD
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GW
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I love America and we’ve always been good friends and neighbors but their government is out of control and will drag us down with them if we’re not careful.
Sven
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Canada is pacticing some good fiscal management and the US isn't, don't we deserve a spot in the sun for a while? (perhaps we could do it more graciously)
Gen. Lee Wright
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Helen
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Most Canadians do not realize that our economy is best suited for a Canadian dollar worth about 0.78-0.85 cents US. Why you might ask, well because Canada's economy relies heavily on manufacturing, and the USA is the biggest importer of Canadian products...be it auto parts or lumber. If the US dollar is weak then it becomes too expensive for them to buy our goods, and when that happens, we Canadians feel it in job losses. Once the job losses come then the unemployment rate goes up and we all know what leads from there.
So I say take the family to Disney, buck up about the pay in US dollars, while our dollar is strong against the US dollar, and pray that soon our dollar will be at a level that benefits all Canadians, and allows us to enjoy a booming economy where all we have to complain, about is the politicians and the weather.
guppies
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We are at par to Americian dollars which is good to all Canadian. I really don't care we are higher is all because the americian $ is lower.
Will you people want to see our Canadian Dollar are at par to US. Or you want to see our Canadian Dollar are at par with Japaness yen...lol
ET
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For those who are getting paid in US$ I say cash in and get out now while you can.
Mike - 2nd posting
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To all of you who say that the Cdn $ will drop. You are wrong. All you have to do is take a look at teh US policies to see that you are wrong. Do you know what happened recently? The US broke the $9 trillion deficit mark!!! The US is spending at historic levels and they are deathly scared to raise taxes. Oh, and on top of that, they are looking to implement a better healthcare system comparable to the one we have in Canada. So what do you see in the future?
I see the US tanking further and our dollar continueing to prosper. What we need to do is distance our country from the Titanic (the US), which is exactly what the Tory gov't is doing right now. The reason Harper has been on so many trade missions lately is b/c they realize this treat and are being proactive. I couldn't be happier with our situation in Canada.
Murray Ayers
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I agree with David, although I think David should also consider basic human nature, we are children and as such we typically like to see the big guy fall, this however doesn't mean we would not bend over backwards to help others if we could. This situation is out of our control so everyone has a comment, but please don't forget that many people were not offered options when they took US funds vs CDN and we have all seen or heard of the dollars at par in the past...good luck to everyone, be kind and understanding because we are all in this together.
MA
Mike
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I can't imagine the job that you have that you are getting paid in American funds yet live in Canada. I gaurantee you are not like "many" Cdns as you stated. Your situation is truely rare. As for the rest of us, we've received a 20% pay increase witht he Cdn $ being stronger. That is assuming you can buy merchandise in the US where the prices are lower.
I live in a border town so I have this luxury.
John
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Debbie S
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Dan
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Chris
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Chris R
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david
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Eric
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DW
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D. Mac
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AG
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And for those of you that did get your salaries in US dollars...you gambled....you won at the start but now you are losing...
Bill Felker
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William Ashley
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It is odd how fast oil forecasts have changed that I've seen, a couple weeks ago there was an expected decline in oil prices, then all this turkey and opec taking 4 million bpd off the market.. then talk of oil hitting the $100 mark... I think the climbing dollar is very interesting.. 103 higher than the new year parity I was expecting.. if winter oil demand maintains the price of oil or sees it climb against a falling US dollar I would not be suprised to see a 110 cad.. but this feels almost surreal after 30 years of subpar ratings.. anywho. It's been a boom by the looks of it.. this last confidence vote that will save half a billion dollars if it maintains the Tory government I would think would strengthen the dollar even more.. but what drives the market?
Derek
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When you order goods from the UK, you don't expect to pay in US funds, so why list US prices when exporting out of Canada?
Joan Dubois
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JD
Live with it Princess
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Vince M.
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I emailed Toyota asking why a 2008 Highlander Sport 4WD in Canada costs $46,900 and in the US costs $32,085. Exactly the same vehicle.
To date, no response.
DL
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stephen
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Brian Vachon
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Carol J
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Ghyslain
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BC
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When it was 30% the other direction you laughed all the way to the bank. Now you're complaining when it isn't favourable to you. Tough luck buddy.
Kim
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DP
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Garry
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DJ
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mel brass
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It would be nice if officials just let the Dollar seek its own level.
The market place should determine the value of our money.
Gerald Skowronski
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