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A Canadian dollar, or loonie, sits on a series of its American counterpart. (CP / Paul Chiasson)

Weak U.S. dollar sends volatile loonie soaring

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Date: Tue. Oct. 23 2007 7:45 PM ET

TORONTO — The Canadian dollar soared a cent and a half Tuesday, retracing the previous day's big loss, on the strength of solid consumer activity and renewed doubts about the American dollar.

The loonie surged to a new 33 1/2-year high of 103.9 cents US but ended the session up 1.51 cents at 103.51 cents US., a day after a move by Bank of Canada governor David Dodge to talk down the currency had helped prod it down by 1.55 cents US.

"Yesterday's move looked a little bit exaggerated and I'd say today's move is probably to a degree exaggerated as well,'' Shaun Osborne, currency strategist at TD Securities, said Tuesday afternoon.

"But overall the trend toward a stronger Canadian dollar remains pretty much in place.''

Tuesday's gain came after Statistics Canada reported retail sales rose 0.7 per cent in August to $34.5 billion, after decreases in June and July. This suggested the economy and consumer sentiment maintained strength in spite of financial market unease.

"Even in the heart of the August credit turmoil and equity market swoon, Canadian consumers kept right on going,'' commented Douglas Porter of BMO Capital Markets.

"Looking ahead, consumer spending will be supported by rising wages, the strong likelihood of tax cuts, and the tantalizing probability of a windfall of lower prices thanks to the loonie's rampage.''

Camilla Sutton, currency strategist at Scotia Capital, said Monday's pullback in the currency had been provoked by a revival in the U.S. dollar amid risk-averse fears that global growth could slow and on Tuesday "we've seen the market really turn around and the U.S. dollar revert'' to its weakening trend.

"We've seen a much better day in terms of equities, which has returned the market's view to U.S. dollar weakness ahead,'' Sutton said.

"I think that's fair. You know, we have a (U.S. Federal Reserve) meeting next week that most likely will cut interest rates, and that should continue to drive some U.S. dollar weakness.''

For the Canadian dollar, regarded as a resource-dependent currency, a key factor is the price of oil. Tuesday's loonie strength came despite a slight slippage in the oil price -- which had tumbled by more than $1.00 a barrel on Monday after touching record highs of US$90 a barrel last week.

George Davis, senior technical analyst at RBC Capital Markets, noted "very aggressive buying'' of the Canadian dollar Tuesday.

"I think that people are reacting to overall U.S. dollar weakness,'' Davis said, "and there may be some potential merger-and-acquisition-related flows involved in this move as well.''

Cash is flooding into Canada as Rio Tinto pays investors for their Alcan Inc. shares to conclude the US$38.1-billion takeover of Canada's largest aluminum company. Those investors are expected to convert much of this money into Canadian dollars, increasing demand for loonies.

"We may have seen some of that flow this morning,'' TD's Osborne said.

"Volatility is the optimal word,'' he added. "We do think the trend will moderate ...but the risk in the short run certainly appears to be to the downside'' for the American dollar.

"Investors are still fairly negative on U.S. economic prospects.''

Apparently forgotten Tuesday was Dodge's weekend warning that the loonie's surge from 95 cents US at the beginning of September, up from 86 cents at the start of the year, was "abnormally quick'' and defies economic fundamentals.

"It's a difficult trend to fight,'' said Scotia Capital's Sutton.

"I would advise not trying to fight that trend and continue to play it to the upside until we really see it start to break down. And the catalyst could very well be (cheaper) oil, but we'll need a few more days to see whether or not that's going to come to fruition.''

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Add New Comment ( )

Mike
said
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WoW! Well, I am sure this would be a great reason for all NAFTA curriencies to unite and form the so called AMERO (North American Union currency). If you have not heard of this, just google it or youtube it. You will see why this is not bad for either big business in Canada nor in the US! North American Union is the next step they are devising!


PVT
said
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Can anyone say "Americana"? I hear that's what they are going to call the new North American unified currency. We are going to need that in order to compete with the strength of the Euro...


Gary R.
said
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I agree with David.
We are inter-woven in ways the average person cannot see, nor will ever need to...
Let's ask a simple question: Of all the countries in the world to pick as neighbors, who would be the best choice? I think the US of A wins hands down.
Quit your crowing about the US hard times a'coming...the pendulum can swing both ways, and we already have issues with forest products, etc.
I suggest you ALL get on your MP's phone lines and start complaining like heck about this Korea Free Trade issue! We ain't seen nothing yet!


ChrisD
said
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On Derek's comment re pricing in CAD instead of USD... I work for a manufacturer that has a very robust domestic business, but some US business as well. The reality is, when dealing with the US, it doesn't really matter which currency you use. If we price at $1 USD, we lose on forex. If we price at $1 CAD, we'd lose on decreased volume because it costs more for the customers to buy our products.. Either way, a rate change of any significance will hurt international business regardless of the functional currency.


GW
said
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America is $48 Trillion in debt and growing faster every day. Unless they get control of their spending we may see the US fall back into the dirty 30’s.

I love America and we’ve always been good friends and neighbors but their government is out of control and will drag us down with them if we’re not careful.



Sven
said
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The funny thing is not a lot is going to change so bickering is futile.

Canada is pacticing some good fiscal management and the US isn't, don't we deserve a spot in the sun for a while? (perhaps we could do it more graciously)


Gen. Lee Wright
said
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Good thing North American markets don't hang on every word from Dodge.


Helen
said
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I agree with David, it really is sad to see the bitterness with the US. Yes it is a great time to go to Disney on vacation, and yes it sucks if you are being paid in US dollars, however these are not the important issues.
Most Canadians do not realize that our economy is best suited for a Canadian dollar worth about 0.78-0.85 cents US. Why you might ask, well because Canada's economy relies heavily on manufacturing, and the USA is the biggest importer of Canadian products...be it auto parts or lumber. If the US dollar is weak then it becomes too expensive for them to buy our goods, and when that happens, we Canadians feel it in job losses. Once the job losses come then the unemployment rate goes up and we all know what leads from there.
So I say take the family to Disney, buck up about the pay in US dollars, while our dollar is strong against the US dollar, and pray that soon our dollar will be at a level that benefits all Canadians, and allows us to enjoy a booming economy where all we have to complain, about is the politicians and the weather.



guppies
said
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It doesn't matter. The bottom line is. There is no one way street here. Some people like the Dollar high and some like it low.

We are at par to Americian dollars which is good to all Canadian. I really don't care we are higher is all because the americian $ is lower.

Will you people want to see our Canadian Dollar are at par to US. Or you want to see our Canadian Dollar are at par with Japaness yen...lol



ET
said
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It's amazing it took this long. The American economy has been operated like a pyramid scheme over the past 7 years without any regard to the outcome. This will not change anytime soon. Get use to Cnd$ at 1.10 for the long term.
For those who are getting paid in US$ I say cash in and get out now while you can.


Mike - 2nd posting
said
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Oh one more thing...

To all of you who say that the Cdn $ will drop. You are wrong. All you have to do is take a look at teh US policies to see that you are wrong. Do you know what happened recently? The US broke the $9 trillion deficit mark!!! The US is spending at historic levels and they are deathly scared to raise taxes. Oh, and on top of that, they are looking to implement a better healthcare system comparable to the one we have in Canada. So what do you see in the future?

I see the US tanking further and our dollar continueing to prosper. What we need to do is distance our country from the Titanic (the US), which is exactly what the Tory gov't is doing right now. The reason Harper has been on so many trade missions lately is b/c they realize this treat and are being proactive. I couldn't be happier with our situation in Canada.


Murray Ayers
said
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True...

I agree with David, although I think David should also consider basic human nature, we are children and as such we typically like to see the big guy fall, this however doesn't mean we would not bend over backwards to help others if we could. This situation is out of our control so everyone has a comment, but please don't forget that many people were not offered options when they took US funds vs CDN and we have all seen or heard of the dollars at par in the past...good luck to everyone, be kind and understanding because we are all in this together.

MA


Mike
said
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DP,

I can't imagine the job that you have that you are getting paid in American funds yet live in Canada. I gaurantee you are not like "many" Cdns as you stated. Your situation is truely rare. As for the rest of us, we've received a 20% pay increase witht he Cdn $ being stronger. That is assuming you can buy merchandise in the US where the prices are lower.

I live in a border town so I have this luxury.


John
said
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Very mature counterattack there, David. Lob all the insults you want, but for now the Canadian dollar is higher than the greenback. It's a new reality that many people have different ways of stomaching -- for those who are suffering, it is hard. But it's no need to be a sour grape about it.


Debbie S
said
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I keep hearing individuals talk about how the Canadian dollar will fall again in no time, it's as though people have lost faith in the Canadian economy. Let's not forget that the dollar was deflated in order to make Canadian goods more desirable to the American market. When the dollar was at the 60 cent US mark I believe it should have sat quite higher. Yes I would agree that the dollar has risen quicker then expected but economists from the start of the year were predicting that the dollar would hit parity by years end, it just happened a few months sooner then they expected. If retailers in Canada began to lower their prices we would continue to see a strong growth in Canada as fewer Canadians would travel to the US in search of deals.


Dan
said
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Regarding the Liberal government laying the fantastic groundwork for this rally in the Loonie - will they also claim responsibility for it when it was at its all time lows in the mid to late 90s?


Chris
said
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LOL David! You're opening up a dangerous can of worms. Your military might is one thing (that I respect) but so is your never-ending appetite for bullying, invading and destroying other nations without a care in the world, just to suit your own selfish means (which nobody respects). And you wonder in your ignorance why there is a 'hatred of America'! There is so much wrong with America that I could go on forever. Take a look in the mirror and you might learn a thing or two. In the meantime, enjoy your own humble pie.


Chris R
said
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With this exchange volatility there's never been a better case for monetary union in North America. European consumers and businesses are already reaping the benefits of a single currency and hamonized regulations. Roll on European style integration.


david
said
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What's really pathetic about a lot of these comments is the almost "spitefulness", and bombastic bravado of a lot of people cheering on the surge of the dollar at the expense of America. It's an intense hatred of USA that is sickening. It's downright childish. Don't forget the USA and Canada (North America) are dependent on each other - and like it or not..always will be. The Americans have taken on huge responsibilities in this world that Canada benefits from (military). We have no right to celebrate at their dollar's decline. Just remember smarty-pants that what goes up must come down. You might want to grow-up a little too and show some class. This high dollar won't last forever so maybe you should start eating some humble pie before you can't afford the steak big mouths.


Eric
said
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I think it is great the Can dollar is doing well. I live in the US and would continue, because it is cheaper to live and the brain drain will continue because the Govt will not protect those in the Med field. (Nor help in Salary increases.)


DW
said
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DMac, I have news for you -- most Canadians are living way beyond their means as well, just like the Americans. We are back at the top of the loonie cycle and 10 years from now, we will be back in the tank again!


D. Mac
said
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Salaries Declining - I too usef to be paid in US currency but exited when GWB got in for a 2nd Term. The writing has been on the wall since about 2004...it was only a matter of time. Anyone that has lived in the US knows that the market is inflated, most people live well outside their means. I am glad I left when I did.


AG
said
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I am sorry. I totally support an above par dollar. Why should we always below the yanks. Do you always want to be lower then them? The US is crashing and I think it is great the Canadian Dollar is rising it will help us all in the end.

And for those of you that did get your salaries in US dollars...you gambled....you won at the start but now you are losing...

Bill Felker
said
0 0

I'm certainly no expert on financial markets but I have been around long enough to know that this is a flash in the pan and won't last too long. So if you can take advantage of the situation and buy some greenback to put away for a future Disney trip I say go for it!


William Ashley
said
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Feels very boom.
It is odd how fast oil forecasts have changed that I've seen, a couple weeks ago there was an expected decline in oil prices, then all this turkey and opec taking 4 million bpd off the market.. then talk of oil hitting the $100 mark... I think the climbing dollar is very interesting.. 103 higher than the new year parity I was expecting.. if winter oil demand maintains the price of oil or sees it climb against a falling US dollar I would not be suprised to see a 110 cad.. but this feels almost surreal after 30 years of subpar ratings.. anywho. It's been a boom by the looks of it.. this last confidence vote that will save half a billion dollars if it maintains the Tory government I would think would strengthen the dollar even more.. but what drives the market?


Derek
said
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The reason a high Canadian dollar isn't good for export is because we deal far too much in US funds. If we had set our export prices in Canadian dollars we wouldn't be hearing half as much whining from exporters. This is the price you pay for not supporting Canadian currency.

When you order goods from the UK, you don't expect to pay in US funds, so why list US prices when exporting out of Canada?



Joan Dubois
said
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DP you likely did not complain when the Canadian Dollar was worth 70 cent. Yet you likely paid the same mortage rate as I did even though I was paid by the good old Canadian dollar. Fair is fair... no one bailed us our when we were sinking, we had to blow up our own water wings and get on with life.

JD


Live with it Princess
said
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DP, I'll bet you didn't do a lot of griping during the years that our dollar was below the 80 cent level. Had you invested that bonus you were getting on every paycheque at that time, you'd be ahead of the game even if our dollar remains at par for the next few years.


Vince M.
said
0 0

Well the flucuation in the dollar isn't phasing business just yet.

I emailed Toyota asking why a 2008 Highlander Sport 4WD in Canada costs $46,900 and in the US costs $32,085. Exactly the same vehicle.

To date, no response.


DL
said
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If you look at the full cylce economic picture, the dollar is way too high for Canada's good. An 85 cent dollar would almost be perfect. I hope it drops.


stephen
said
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You know you can not have your bread butter on both sides. and expect people to feel sorry for you.. for years 9probably) you took advantage of the US dollar value. Now you complain when it at a disadvantage you cry foul. Doubt you'll find many canadian who will have any real sympathy for you.


Brian Vachon
said
0 0

Looks like the "brain-drain" just isn't paying off like it used to. I have no sympathy for those persons who chose to leave Canada in search of "higher wages." Maybe this will have an effect on physicians and surgeons leaving us to practice in the US.


Carol J
said
0 0

I have to agree with DP. My husbands pension & retirement check comes from the States and we are having a hard time ,making emds meet. I think in the long run it would be better if our dollar fell.


Ghyslain
said
0 0

My heart bleeds for those who reaped the benefits of a US-dollar salary and now complain that they life isn't as rosy as one of the masses paid in Canadian dollars.


BC
said
0 0

DP......

When it was 30% the other direction you laughed all the way to the bank. Now you're complaining when it isn't favourable to you. Tough luck buddy.


Kim
said
0 0

A high dollar is not good for everyone. I am paid in US funds and since 2002 my income has dropped over 33%.


DP
said
0 0

You probably are unaware of the fact that many Canadians, like myself, are employed by companies south of the border, and receive salaries in US funds. Not only I lost 10% of my salary for the past 8 weeks, I also get ripped off by Canadian banks, maintaining very unfavorable conversion rates and charging so called "commissions" for every single operation.


Garry
said
0 0

When a barrel of oil is $90USD (that's about $88CDN ;)) and I'm paying 94 cents for a litre of gas I've got no complaints. But realistically, a buck-five is probably as high as we want to see the loon fly.


DJ
said
0 0

The Canadian dollar is high relative to the sinking US currency. On the world market it has stayed relatively level. Might the age of America be over and now we look to the strength of the Euro?


mel brass
said
0 0

The rise of the Canadian Dollar overall is most beneficial to all of Canada.
It would be nice if officials just let the Dollar seek its own level.
The market place should determine the value of our money.


Gerald Skowronski
said
0 0

Regular folks shouldn't get too excited or depressed about the high dollar fluctuating two cents up or down. It hasn't affected day-to-day prices and probably won't, unless it stays high for the next six months. Then we can have a serious discussion about how we can take over Fort Knox.


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