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Canadian dollar v.s. U.S. dollar

Loonie closes down after Dodge questions strength

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Date: Mon. Oct. 22 2007 5:17 PM ET

The soaring Canadian dollar ended a volatile day of trading 1.55 cents down, after the Bank of Canada's governor David Dodge said over the weekend the currency's recent surge was "abnormally quick."

The dollar closed at US$1.02 on Monday, following a Friday close of US$1.0355. At one point, it had plunged as much as 1.77 US cents.

The dollar has gained 21 per cent of its value since the beginning of 2007, with most of the movement occurring since August.

Dodge told an audience of international bankers in Washington on Sunday that "the recent round of appreciation has been abnormally quick and doesn't seem to be related to the domestic factors, which would normally lead to that sort of appreciation.''

BNN's Michael Kane said Dodge was jawboning with his comments.

"It's just a little bit of talk that will take some of the steam out of the marketplace," Kane said Monday.

Meanwhile, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty will meet the Retail Council of Canada and representatives from individual retailers, such as Wal-Mart Canada and Hudson's Bay Co., in Ottawa on Tuesday.

He told CTV's Question Period on Sunday that he will pressure them to lower prices despite the advantages of a high dollar.

Diane Brisebois, president and CEO of the Retail Council of Canada, rebuked claims that retailers are keeping prices up to make more money.

She said in a statement to retailers that she will use the meeting with Flaherty to ensure the retail industry "is not used as a political pawn."

"The reality is that in most cases, retailers have not been able to reduce their prices because their merchandise costs have not declined," Brisebois said in a statement last week. "Canadian manufacturers, importers and wholesalers, in most cases, have retained the benefits of the appreciation of the dollar and have not passed the savings on to retailers and their customers."

She said the Retail Council of Canada also requested meetings with the Canadian Manufacturers & Exporters and Canadian Importers Association to demand that they acknowledge their role in the prices that customers pay.

Flaherty also told CTV's Question Period that the weakened U.S. dollar and credit crunch in the housing sector has sparked North American recession fears and forced Canada to support its neighbour to the south.

"Canada has borne a disproportionate burden in terms of the depreciation of the U.S. dollar. We've suffered a third of that burden with the European community, but we're only 33 million people and they are 300 million people or more," Flaherty said.

Meanwhile, Matthew Strauss, senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets, said factors such as investor uncertainty are influencing the decline of the dollar.

"We have seen not only the Canadian dollar but a number of other currencies, including the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar, under pressure," Strauss told The Canadian Press.

"And as we've seen in the past, with increased risk aversion, investors tend to sell cyclical currencies, or so-called commodity-based currencies, which includes the Canadian dollar."

Last Thursday, the Bank of Canada said that the country's economy has already begun to cool and would run out of steam by the end of the year.

''Although Canada's economic growth in the first half of 2007 was somewhat stronger than earlier projected, the projection for the second half of this year and for the first half of 2008 is somewhat weaker,'' the bank said.

''This reflects the downward revision to the growth projections in the U.S. gross domestic product, as well as the effect of the higher assumed level of the Canadian dollar.''

However, the central bank did predict that the economy would make a soft landing.

The bank said it expected the loonie to remain high and forecasted that it would hover at about 98 cents US for the next two years.

On the stock markets Monday, Toronto's S&P/TSX composite index rebounded from a loss of 100 points to close 41.94 points higher at 14,043.36.

On Wall Street, the Dow Jones industrials also rebounded from a triple-digit loss to close up 44.95 points at 13,566.97 after last week's sell off cut more than four per cent from the blue chip index.

The Nasdaq composite index was also positive, up 28.77 points to 2,753.93 and the S&P 500 index eased up 5.7 points to 1,506.33 after losing about four per cent on the week.

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JF
said
0 0

I think investors are starting to see the light here and realize that the free for all fiscal policies in the US are not sustainable and only serve to undermine the fiscal health of the rest of the World. Cash will flee to safer havens available and, unfortunately for our export industries, that haven also includes Canadian commodity markets (for now).


Chuck in Ottawa
said
0 0

I'm eyeing a certain camdcorder.
Canadian retail $699.99
US retail is only $379.99
Now come on... a 100% mark up ?

Stuff like this doesn't collect dust in a warehouse, inventory moves all the time.

J
said
0 0

The global crash is just around the corner, folks. I hope, too, that the masses become aware that central banking and fiat currency is to blame for this.


Chris
said
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What gives an automaker the right to say our dollar value isn't justified??? Well it's just another example of big markets wanting to put a huge hush hush on the way our government strengthened the dollar to expose how corporations have been ripping the Canadian people off.


Doug
said
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A strong dollar doesn't necessarily mean our economy has to suffer. While there will be a period of adjustment, it is possible to compete.
That would, of course require business to sharpen its ways, workers to be competetive with their US conterparts, and of course all levels of government to also be sure their tax levels aren't significantly higher here than in the USA.
I take issue with the notion that the whole responsibility for competetive economies lies with retailers lowering prices.It look far more complicated than that.
Surely we can't expect the same prices if we also demand higher wages for ourselves and higher taxes on business.


Ray Pereira
said
0 0

Back in the 70's when our dollar was worth more than the greenback, our economy thrived. When the loonie started plummeting, there was no hue and cry about propping it up. I say let it rise!


Ray Pereira
said
0 0

Back in the 70's when our dollar was worth more than the greenback, our economy thrived. When the loonie started plummeting, there was no hue and cry about propping it up. I say let it rise!


stephen
said
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David you might take issue with my statement but. there is nothing wrong with doing business with other countries. As it stands now Canada is a primary material industry. Be it wood metals, grains or meat. We ship our primary products to the states to be processed to be shipped back to Canada and to the rest of the world. Basically all this means is perhaps Canadians will finally get smart enough to protect their own interests instead of protecting the interests of our neighbour to the south of us. And take out the middle man.. and start processing our own primary material.. I for one welcome a strong Canadian dollar, and weak American dollar.. as it was said it not that our Dollar is any stronger. It's just the American dollar is getting much weaker.. and this was a very predicable decline,, and I see the US dollar getting much more weaker.... than what their just predicting now...

QT
said
0 0

All those wishing for a weaker Canadian dollar I say "Cool your jets". The dollar will eventually go down and it's about time we enjoy a strong Canadian dollar (Even if it is for a short period of time).


Mike
said
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Terry St. Denis,

It is not the retailer's responsiblity to give you a fair exchange rate. It costs the retailer money to exchange the currency. All yo uhave to do is exchange your money before you go to the States to get the best exchange rate. If I was a retailer in the States I would charge an extremely unfair exchange rate to anyone dumb enough not to pay with Visa or exchange their money before going into the US.


C. B.
said
0 0

From what I see the CAD seems to fluctuate in sync with the EUR. USD is 1.2 up against both EUR and CAD since Friday. The fluctuation has nothing to do with Dodge's comments; the value is set in the international markets.
The higher the CAD, the better/more machines manufacturers can buy. They should become more productive and ride the issue out.
Having a monopoly currency won't make your economy stronger.


J. D. Boyd
said
0 0

So, Mr Dodge questions the strength of the Canadian Dollar. Dodge and the rest of the Bank of Canada need to step outside their corner offices and see what the rest of the world already knows.

Or is Dodge hedging in order to protect Ontario's struggling manufacturing sector who had no problem draining us dry when the dollar was lower.

Dodge, it's a nature/nurture thing. Let the chips fall where they may. Keep your thoughts to yourself.


Uwe Warkholdt
said
0 0

Isn't it funny how the big boys play while the little guy pays.

With the rising Canadian dollar, I have seen prices in the grocery store rise and our fuel prices "still suck". One would expect as we import a lot of goods that our prices to come down. But guess again. Perhaps greed is still raising its ugly head.

"Nuf said".


David
said
0 0

Wow, for all those posters whining about how a strong dollar makes us uncompetitive. What a bunch of fraidy-cats. I think it's great. It'll weed out all the socialist, Gov't hand-out, non-competitive pseudo-businesses and leave the strong and competitive ones to do battle in the Global market-place. Maybe, we'll even EXCEL and be SUCCESSFUL - Sorry, if that scared you people. I know success is a dirty word among the socialist sect.

EB
said
0 0

Ten straight years of surpluses in the federal budget and Dodge criticizes how quickly the dollar has risen? The loonie has been undervalued for years.


Terry N
said
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To Andrew Russel (who said he was sick of people complaining about prices in Canada): Your argument falls on deaf ears -- people are sick of being gouged and are demanding better treatment.

I used to work as a shipper/receiver for a major Canadian retailer. If a product was manufactured in Seattle and destined to arrive in Vancouver (3 hours away), it had to be shipped through Toronto (on the other side of the country). Why? The company had its reasons. Did the reasons make sense? That's debatable. Did the extra shipping cost show up in the price? Yes, but the profit-margins upon which the company insisted were an even bigger factor in the price -- the markup on clothing in particular was usually double. Head office executives were getting rich quite quickly, I assure you, while customers were suffering deep bites every which way they turned, for products that were trendy, but not at all durable ... and we never had your size even though we stocked $12 million inventories in our stores (but we were always happy to sell you the wrong size, or convince you to buy something other than what you wanted). By the way, the company had bought up much of its competition.

Does capitalism work the way it should in theory? Not sure, but I imagine factors *other* *than* *theory* will be acting forcefully to drive down Canadian pricing over the next while (Mr. Russel). My coworkers & I used to laugh heartily at the stupidity of our employer (with regards to astronomical inefficiencies) -- but it's not so funny that Canadian consumers pay for that incompetence (from a company that has chosen the strategy of systematically eliminating all of its competition).

Julius - Regina, Saskatchewan
said
0 0

Ron,
Since you’re such an aficionado of the USA over Canada then perhaps you SHOULD move there – or if you like the concept of the 51 State move to Alberta which is practically just that.
-- and no we should not attempt to copy the "EU -Euro"


Biso
said
0 0

If I may add my comment to Andrew and the others. What you said about the buying power in the US is bigger because of population was true in 80s or it is still true for small businesses. Nowadays, that is not true. The business practices are different. Big chains do not buy for a region anymore. Take example Costco, Walmart, GAP, ALDO, McDonald..etc ..etc buy for all their stores all over the world with some regional difference that does not explain the price difference. For example En/Fr package for Canada, En/Sp for US. In addition to other regional requirements like volume size package material ..etc. The requirement can even change from state to state in the same country but you do not see 25% difference in price between those states.
What About cars made in ON and you can buy them 10k less in MI or NY?

And to rest my case, if the situation is reversed and our dollar is the one dropping you will see the price increase in less than 24 hours. We all remember the 1USD to 1.5 CAD in the 2000/2001 and we sow how the prices jumped.


JWB
said
0 0

Perhaps what we are witnessing with the dollar is further to alignment of the North American continents on a common currency?
One dollar north to south - the "Big MAC"
dollar? (Mexican American, Canadian):)


Terry St. Denis
said
0 0

Shopping the States, as of yesterday in Upstate New York (Massena) they are only giving 96 cents on the Canadian Dollar, more proof Americans can't accept change.

T. St. Denis


david
said
0 0

I must take issue with stephen's comments as quoted; You should see more countries dropping their reserves of US dollars. all it needed was investor to start the ball rolling. it might mean some short term pain for us as Canadians, but it just means that we will have to shift are export markets to countries other then the US. which is not necessary a bad thing."
My response: When you factor in the shipping/freight costs it is a bad thing because that drives our export prices up and leaves export markets at a further disadvantage. Bottom line a "low" Canadian dollar is good for Canada. Look for a job while you're in the US shopping for products because this county "Canada" is headed for trouble.



WB
said
0 0

When the dollar's down, it's a problem for some. When it's high, it's a problem for some.

I don't know about you, but I'd rather operate from a position of financial strength; and that's what we have right now.

What better way to show our national identity than to prove that our fortunes aren't as closely tied to the U.S. as most people would make it seem?


happy_voter
said
0 0

What we need are interest rate cuts. Let the dollar find its own level, but by all means, cut interest rates.


Ian
said
0 0

I strongly disagree with Andrew and Ron. Despite population disparity the simple fact remains that a Canadian dollar buys more American products than a year ago. While it may be unrealistic to expect to pay exactly the same as our neighbors to the south, there should be some some savings. Retailers that complain American suppliers aren't lowering prices to reflect the increased value of our dollar should make all efforts to change this including the changing of their import practices. You two sound like a couple of "good ole boys" looking out for American interests.


M-Y
said
0 0

We should just have something like the Euro. It will happen, the US and Canadian dollar will be one.


Gary B
said
0 0

Once again we see people jumping on their various bandwagons. Our dollar has gained against the Euro this year. Prices are beginning to come down. Buying power does drive the economy and Canadian manufacturing was not competetive with an eighty cent dollar, that pillar is history. And Andrew, I've done the math, NAFTA ensures that the 1/10th senario is mute. An item in Windsor should not cost a nickle more than it does in Detroit.


Mike C.
said
0 0

Andrew Russell,

Your argument has some merit, but very little. The fact that we are smaller in population than the US was already factored into prices before the rise of our dollar.

Example: Let's say, before the rise of our dollar we paid $15 for an item compared to $10 for the same item in teh US. $1.50 was related to your argument of supply and demand and $3.50 was related to our weak dollar. Well now the dollar is at parity and the problem is that we are still paying $15 when we should be paying $11.50 for that $10 item in the US.

What consumers want are fair prices compared to the US, not the same prices. Of course, we are going to pay a little more, but it shouldn't be 10 - 25% more.



Steve Beauchesne
said
0 0

Andrew Russell, .... Canada has a free trade agreement with the US, so there's no reason buying the same product should cost more in Montreal than it does in Minneapolis. It doesn't matter that we're 1/10th the US population. It's not like all Candians buy in bulk in one shot and all Americans do the same.


Scott
said
0 0

In fact, the US$ is up against the Euro and CDN$; the CDN$ has not changed that much with relation to other currencies (e.g. the Euro) over the past couple of days, so the reported "drop" against the US$ would appear to have less to do with Dodge's remark, and more to do with the US$'s rise. Unless it's being asserted that Dodge's remark caused investors to leave all currencies in favour of the US$.


Richard
said
0 0

Every time I have visited the USA I've noticed how much farther a US Dollar will go in the USA than a Canadian Dollar will go in Canada.

This isn't just now - it has always been like this. From gas to groceries, cars, building materials, almost everything I can think of. This is made more apparent with our dollar value inflated.

Yes, we are taxes to the bones. And yes it hurts. We don't have as much disposable income as our American counterparts directly because of this. So we suffer domestically and internationally.

Problem#1 is: we have way few too many people to compete with almost any major economy out there.

Problem#2 is: it is too expensive to support a large family anymore or a family at all.

Dan
said
0 0

The Canadian dollar isn't surging. The reason why the dollar is high is due to the drop in the american dollar. We are still well below the Euro and the pound. We need to keep the dollar up to compete with these currencies. I have no idea why people wish to keep are dollar below the American dollar which reduces are buying power.


Ron
said
0 0

I believe Andre Russell is correct; we are too small a country to receive the same pricing as in the US.
The only possible solution is to become the 51st state to take better advantage of lower pricing south of the border. As long as we get to keep hockey and healthcare it's a win, win situation right?
Since this will never happen retailers and manufacturers have to smarten up and price more fairly in the Canadian market, until then my money will continue to head south. I may be Canadian but I'm not willing to pay more because of it.



Lart from Above
said
0 0

Retailers should be turning inventory over at least every three or four months, so there is no reason for any retailer to show a retail price reflecting an exchange rate older than that. Large retailers should be clear about how currency changes are affecting them, and that competitive pressure should be spreading through the economy. It's surprising that some Canadian retailers are in effect telling their customers to shop in the US.


Brian M
said
0 0

There is something about being Canadian and having a stronger dollar then the States that just doesn't seem logical.

Our manufactoring and small businesses will suffer dearly to the strong dollar. Canada exports 85% of its exports to the States. Which means we aren't a cheaper market for the States now and other markets will become more enticing to our American friends.

If we hovered around the 90 cent mark that would be great.


Andre Gatineau
said
0 0

And don't believe this 'preset' price excuse retailers are saying.
Did you ever see how fast the price of fans and ACs go up when they forecast a heat wave ?
Like gas, when it goes up, it skyrockets, when it's time to go down, it floats down.


Andrew Russell
said
0 0

The fact you think paying for an item in Canada should be exactly what our neighbours to the south pay....

It's called SUPPLY AND DEMAND. We are 1/10.....1/10 of the American population!! Do you not wonder and/or think about how that would impact purchasing orders???? Order less, pay more....order more, pay less. Soooooo, do the basic math, and you get it...right?

I am so sick of hearing all these Canadians who think retailers should suddenly slash prices at the registers to meet their uneducated needs. It's bad for business when you have the uneducated masses ranting on a subject they no little, or even worse, nothing about.


Roger T
said
0 0

Makes no difference - IF the retailers don't drop prices I'm just spending my money down South like millions of others. A couple of cents isn't gonna make a difference since these Corporate Agreeds are out there who are robbing us consumers. Let's see what plays out before Christmas. No price drops, hopefully the retailers sales will suffer for the season and force them to re-think of their prices.


Jerry
said
0 0

Shop USA to save with our new found dollar value? Stores will close, unemployment will go up, prices will increase as market competition decreases. What a shock it will be when our dollar falls back to previous levels.
Perhaps while cross border shopping one should look for employment for themselves and their children because there may not be much left here in Canada.


Chris R
said
0 0

Canadian retailers need to start addressing the price differential Canadians shoppers pay ASAP. The notion that the cost of doing business in Canada is higher is complete bunk. Yesterday I was in London Drugs and picked up some party invitation cards. The price on the reverse said US$5.99 and CAN$6.99. When I got to the checkout I asked if I could pay the American price, I even offered to pay in US dollars, the answer was no. Retailers are not moving quickly enough to address this issue. I ended up paying 14% more for these cards than someone would do in the US.

It's bad enough knowing that we earn less and get taxed more than our American neighbours, but to think that we have to pay more for the same goods and services is damned insulting.

I think it’s time to revisit NAFTA with a view to looking at EU style integration. The Europeans are now starting to see prices for goods and services converge with their single market and currency approach. It makes complete sense.



Gen. Lee Wright
said
0 0

Let market forces dictate where we go. A decent value for our dollar doesn't hurt everyone .... How much did everyone else in Canada complain with an EXTREMELY artificially depressed Canadian dollar?

Adapt, adjust, or die; that's what all companies do.


Mark
said
0 0

This is good news. A strong dollar is generally bad news for a country - especially if it climbs at the pace our dollar has.

Oil prices are tracked in US$, so it only makes sense that they increase if the US$ declines. The entire world uses Oil - not just the US. The rise of the price of oil in CDN$, is not nearly as dramatic.

Just because oil is not nessesarily being priced in US$, does not mean the dollar will crumble. The Central Bank will have to monitor the money supply and reduce it if nessesary. That is the beauty (and danger) of the fractional banking system!


John P
said
0 0

I am guessing the Government has received a lot of pressure from manufacturers to reduce the price of the dollar. Shame that Canadians can't enjoy the benefits of a stronger dollar for a while. As consumers we have also paid more for our purchases because of a weak dollar.


stephen
said
0 0

The US economy, is an economy that was waiting to crash, it was just a matter of time.. the only thing that kept the US economy afloat this long, was because all oil had to be sold in American dollars, now that oil has gone up. It was only predictable that the US dollar would fall to counter act this climb in oil prices.. and now that oil can be bought in currency other then American dollar recently. You should see more countries dropping their reserves of US dollars. all it needed was investor to start the ball rolling. it might mean some short term pain for us as Canadians, but it just means that we will have to shift are export markets to countries other then the US. which is not necessary a bad thing.


Stan Kruger
said
0 0

So the loonie's value is not justified, really.

Canada being the top oil exporter to the U.S. is not a factor,nor is the rest of the commodities market,nor the fact that our country has a political stability not matched by many countries.
But being part of the great unwashed masses what do we really know about the world of monetary policy.

What is astounding to me is why our dollar is not at parity with the Euro.


Brian Timothy
said
0 0

A surging dollar is not in Canada's interest because it makes the economy less competitive globally.


Stephen
said
0 0

I think that there are many factors at play here. The US dollar going down, our ability to control our own spending and other important points to mention. I would also have to imagine that the rest of the world believes in our government and gives credit through investment and the direct purchase of our currency. This is another indicator as to the global sentiment of our prime minister.


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