Liberals face major challenges in Quebec: poll

The Unimarket-La Presse poll published Friday suggests that NDP candidate Thomas Mulcair, a former Quebec Liberal environment minister, holds a six percentage-point lead over Liberal candidate Jocelyn Coulon.

"This could mean an historic breakthrough for the NDP if they could win the riding of Outremont," said CTV's Ottawa Bureau Chief Robert Fife. "It means they could possibly be a threat to the Liberals in Montreal but more importantly this could cripple Stephan Dion's leadership."

If Mulcair does win, he would be the first NDP MP from Quebec since consumer advocate Phil Edmonston won a byelection in 1990.

Liberals have held Outremont almost continuously since 1935, except when a Progressive Conservative won an election there for one term starting in 1988. Former Liberal MP Jean Lapierre won the riding by about 2,600 votes in the 2006 federal election.

The Liberals had been expected to hold Outremont. The possibility they might lose has the party hitting the emergency button, calling on Liberals in Ottawa to get to the riding this weekend to shore up support.

"A word of caution if I may -- the Liberals still think they might be able to win this riding, but only by about 700 votes," Fife told CTV News.

The poll bodes ill for Liberal Leader Stephane Dion, he said.

"Mr. Dion is a Quebec leader. He was elected on the basis of being able to win seats in Quebec, and if he can't win Outremont, a traditionally Liberal riding, he is in trouble."

Supporters of former leadership rivals Michael Ignatieff and Bob Rae are already unhappy with Dion, he said, although a movement to ouster Dion before the next federal election is unlikely.

While there's been speculation about a fall federal election, Fife said that's unlikely, given these poll results.

In addition, the governing Conservatives may be poised to win in Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean, formerly a Bloc Quebecois fortress, the poll suggests.

That riding is located in an area where the provincial Action democratique du Quebec made big gains in an election last March. The ADQ is philosophically similar in many ways to the federal Conservatives.

The Globe and Mail reported that the Bloc has called on its workers in eastern Quebec to join the fray in Roberval and help BQ candidate Celine Houde prevail over Tory Denis Lebel.

However, the poll suggests the Bloc should hold on to Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot, the third federal Quebec riding up for grabs on Monday.

The poll suggests Prime Minister Stephen Harper's gamble of recognizing Quebec as a nation, has paid off, Fife said.

The Unimarket-La Presse poll conducted its surveys between Sep. 8 and 12. About 1,000 people were sampled in each riding, making for a margin of error of about three per cent.

Comments are now closed for this story

Robert
said

I don't see how you can judge Dion or predict is success/failure on this one ridings by-election. The NDP are running a strong candidate who seems to be well liked. So what if he wins.

Jim McB
said

Mulcair is a retread Liberal. His prospects look good in his riding and it is a blessing for the Conservatives. His next goal will be the leadership of the NDP and thus the divisions of the left go on.

The only way the left will get a crack at government with today's demographics is if proportional representation is adopted. I can't see Liberals or Conservatives supporting that lunacy.

Dion is not losing anything here, he never greatly appealed to the people of Quebec at any time. The Liberal party, however, is about to be branded as a loser and that will extrapolate into great pain for them in the next general election.

Ian H.
said

David C,
You have to remember that Outremont is a traditionally Liberal riding. The last time it was represented by a Conservative was 1984 and 1988. Even when Diefenbaker won his landslide, which is still the largest majority in Canadian history, it still went Liberal. So for the NDP to be ahead is of great significance.

Denise
said

For those of you who have commented that the Conservatives are "only" at 7% support, please read the whole article. There are 3 byelections happening today, one riding shows the NDP leading, one shows the Conservatives leading and the third has the Bloc leading. The poll numbers pictured at the top of the article are only for the riding of Outremont...I think the really telling thing here is the fact that the Liberals are trailing in all three ridings!

Martin W
said

We should not presume that old Bloc support is necessarily going Tory. Most Quebecois lean to the left on social issues, and the NDP appears more viable all the time. A fall vote may well give the NDP more total seats than the BQ in the HOC.

Jon
said

Read the whole story folks. It's not that long. the conservatives ARE leading in one of the ridings and i suspect 2nd in the other one where the Bloc leads. so that puts the Liberals, where their trend leads which is going down.

GLF
said

RJT. You are kidding yourself, there is nothing Neo Conservative about anything the Harper govenment has proposed. ... I have not heard any Conservative politicians declare a win, but a Liberal loss is still a significant benefit to them. NDP are far from compassionate they are socialist. As far I have seen if they ever were in power we would no longer have any form of capitalism in our country, and you could forget about raising your own children.

ATT
said

Yes, Dion is a huge favor to the Conservatives. I think is a good leader overall and very savvy, but no, he's got no personality whatsoever, but since he's in the PM seat, he'll do well. I think things will look ever better for the Conservatives if MacKay gets the leadership at some point away from Harper.

Robb
said

The CPC was never in play in Outremont. 7% is hardly a shock. This is not their EDA to win.

Ottawa
said

If Dion was a gamble, it looks a poor one.

If he loses all three by-elections in his home province, consider him done.

Jeff S.
said

Dion said last night that the Liberals are expecting 4 things in the Throne Speech and if the government doesn't deliver, they will not support the Throne Speech.

This is political suicide for Dion. Once an election gets under way and televised debates ensue, Dion will be finished. His English is mangled and he has zero charisma. At least Chretien had a sense of humor and some rough charm.

As for Outremont, there's only been one Conservative win there in over 70 years. It's a Liberal strong hold and if Dion loses this riding, it will be the beginning of the end.

I say bring on a Conservative majority so the government can stop tip-toeing around the left-wing parties and get down to some serious governing.

Bob Smith
said

Looks like the Liberals are 3% back where they were on election day in 2006, whereas the Conservatives appear 6% back...

Aren't the Conservatives supposed to be making huge in-roads in Quebec? I mean the media has been reporting this forever...

TC
said

The poll in the graphic is only for the riding of Outremont in Montreal. Outside of Montreal, it's the Conservatives that are the federalist party of choice - the Liberals are nowhere in contention in most of Quebec.

GW
said

The Liberals all lost sight of the goal during their convention when they decided to play it safe with Dion. Dion seems to be a thoughtful man but is likely not big enough for the PM job.

In the past I have voted Liberal and Conservative depending on the quality of people. In my opinion at this time the Conservatives have the better team and plan. What really turns me off the Liberals is the pettiness of their opposition arguments.

Ryan Geeps
said

Byelections going on and Dion was spending time out west with Garth Turner....what a joke...both of them.

He deserves to lose this seat as well as his own.

Andr�
said

The Right has united under Stphen Harper...Peter MacKay is the most intelligent and unselfish politician in the land...Under a united right, the Harper government has done more and better things in 12 months than the Liberal$ in 13 years.

RJT
said

Gary Lidstone did you even look at the polls? The Neo Conservatives are at seven percent, how do you get a potential victory from that? Do all Conservatives wear the same brand of BLINDERS whilst pontificating? Try taking the facts into consideration before gleefully declaring the Conservatives winning anything. Looks the NDP is making a comeback in Canada, some much needed compassion back in our democracy.

Topher
said

I suspect Damien is right. Dion is a remarkable gift to Harper, and Harper wants to enjoy it as long as he can. I live in the West, and I can tell you that Dion has absolutely no profile out here. Bottom line: if he can't hang onto Outrement, how does he expect to win Anne McLellan's old riding back?

David C
said

This article portrays the Liberals in trouble in Outremont yet the Conservatives are at 7% after everything they have dumped into Quebec.

reid
said

As a strong conservative backer and a huge fan of Prime Minister Harper,the greatest thing to see is the Liberals going down.The best opposition would be the NDP,because even if some off there policies are goofy,at least they don't come across as arrogant and entitled.

Jill
said

I guess I really don't care.I like the big picture, and my life doesn't revolve around what party gets in or doesn't in Quebec.( yawn)

Wayne
said

Andrea,

much less, they will not vote for a French citizen as Canadian Prime minister.

damien
said

If you think Dion will play well in the west you have no idea. He will lose seats in Ontario and Quebec as well. The longer Harper waits Dion out, the more Prime Ministerial he looks while Dion moves from one gaffe to another. When it comes to the actual debates, Harper is going to crush Dion. The more Dion tries to move to the Left, the more Harper moves into the center where the votes are, all the while Dion is just splitting the leftist vote with the NDP. You really think Harper is afraid of an election? As soon as Dion decides to pull the plug on the Conservatives, that will be the end of his political career. Bring it on.

martin
said

Remember children, "Stephane dion IS a leader!". Unfortunately, someone forgot to tell Canadians that. Continuing to have Dion as leader is the best gift the Liberals could hand the conservatives. Time for a new convention, perhaps?

Allan M
said

If there is anything the electorate is saying right now, it's that we're not satisfied with the governing options presented to us.

I mean, come on, how good does Harper think he's doing if he's at par with Dion in the polls? Both of these leaders need to be replaced, although Canada's political traditions and procedures will likely protect them.

Gary Lidstone
said

The Conservatives have to be happy. If they can scoop one seat and see the Liberals lose one, that adds up to ONE big win!

TRENT
said

I believe this is the tip of the iceberg in the fall of Stephane Dion. He is such an ineffectual Liberal leader. I'm a liberal, and he has nothing for me to stand up to Harper and his government.

Andrea
said

Harper will not have to worry as long as Dion is leader of the Liberals. English Canada will not vote in another prime minister from Quebec.

paul malouf
said

If the conservatives want a breakthrough in Quebec. HA. That's rich. Change the party's name to Progressive Conservative; alter its philosophy from neo to progressive; and replace Harper with Mackay. It's time the Conservatives themselves go to the polls!

Today's Politics Stories

Federal NDP Leader Tom Mulcair speaks to reporters at the Alberta Legislature, in Edmonton, about his tour of oilsands operations north of Fort McMurray, on Thursday, May 31, 2012. (John Ulan / THE CANADIAN PRESS)

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