While political soothsaying is a dodgy art at the best of times, it appears safe to say Canadians will be going to the polls for a federal vote in 2007.

A year ago, the federal election became a referendum on a tired, divided 13-year-old Liberal government beset by scandal.

Moving into the new year, it appears some new issues and questions may play a key role in a potential federal campaign -- one which may be a referendum on an energetic new Conservative government with a highly ideological leader.

Peter Donolo, partner with The Strategic Counsel and a one-time director of communications to Liberal prime minister Jean Chretien, told CTV.ca that he thinks the opposition parties will try to make Prime Minister Stephen Harper the ballot issue.

"'Do Canadians really want to give this guy a majority?' I think that's a very salient ballot question for the opposition."

Stephane Dion started seeding that ground with his first question period appearance in Parliament as Liberal leader. He used phrases like "far right" and "neo-conservative ideology" in attacking the Tories.

Donolo said Harper has appeared competent and decisive as a prime minister. The Conservative leader won a minority government last Jan. 23 on Liberal weakness and the strength of his five priorities' appeal to the middle class. Those included improving government accountability and a one-point cut in the GST. The Conservatives have been steadily working through their promises.

During the campaign of a year ago, issues such as the environment and foreign policy ranked low relative to Canadians' other priorities. Now those two issues may well become important ballot questions in a 2007 campaign, something Harper himself has acknowledged.

"We have to point out why the environment is a priority for the public," Harper told The Canadian Press in a year-end interview.

"Because there are no more scandals, there are no more threats against national unity, there is no longer a government that never acts, there is a strong economy ..."

Harper's government did table The Clean Air Act, which critics saw as containing some good measures on improving air quality, but totally inadequate on climate change.

Harper said the environment remains a major challenge and promised a revamped environmental plan.

Joan Crockatt is a political commentator based in Calgary, and she told CTV.ca that "a lot of Albertans really do love the environment -- and they hate Kyoto with a passion."

Albertans -- who sent all 28 of their federal MPs to Ottawa as Conservatives -- are worried about the energy industry being made the scapegoat for climate change, she said.

"However, as long as they see that it's fair, I think Albertans are right there with everybody else in terms of wanting something done about the environment."

David Docherty, a Wilfrid Laurier University political scientist, told CTV.ca, "Quebecers are more supportive of Kyoto than most other Canadians."

If the Conservatives want a majority, they need to improve on the 10 of 75 seats captured there in the 2006 campaign.

Dion, a Quebec MP, has said he'll uphold Kyoto if the Liberals form a government.

Afghanistan

The Liberal government committed Canadian troops to serve in Afghanistan, but Harper has made the issue his own.

Harper told CTV News he would rather lose an election than fail to stand by families who have lost sons and daughters there.

"That's the pressure I feel. I tell people I couldn't care less if the opposition brings me down and defeats me in an election over this," he said.

Afghanistan, along with the environment, are two key issues in which Harper and his party currently find themselves on the wrong side of public opinion.

Docherty said foreign policy isn't traditionally seen as a major voting driver in Canadian elections.

"That's been particularly true since 1945," he said, referring to the end of the Second World War.

Canadian soldiers, however, find themselves fighting and dying overseas once again.

In a Dec. 3 Strategic Counsel poll for CTV and The Globe and Mail, 61 per cent of respondents opposed sending troops to Afghanistan while 35 per cent supported the move.

The Western Canadian breakout showed 45 per cent support and 51 per cent opposition. In Quebec, there is 23 per cent support and 75 per cent opposition.

The Bloc Quebecois had talked about trying to topple the Harper government over Afghanistan. The NDP wants to take Canadian troops out of a combat role. The Liberals were divided during the spring vote on extending the mission to February 2009.

Docherty said Harper has also differentiated himself through his unflinching support of Israel in its summer conflict with Hezbollah and his seemingly tough talk on human rights in China.

In one October speech, Harper said casualties were the price of paying a greater role on the world stage.

"These are not typical foreign policy times," Docherty said. "It will be a consideration in voting in a way it hasn't in the past."

Other issues

Two issues that might come into play in 2007: The shift to an elected Senate, and the move to declare the Quebecois to be a nation within a united Canada.

Docherty said Harper may have been "too clever by half" on those issues, and we might not know the full impact of them for some time.

The Tory decision to weaken the tax advantage of income trusts is another. Crockatt said there is anger over that decision in Alberta, where many oil and gas companies had converted to that structure.

Docherty said it remains to be seen how the fiscal imbalance question plays out, and whether Harper can neutralize that as an issue.

Another question is the health of the economy in 2007, with many saying the manufacturing sector of Central Canada is essentially in a recession now.

Donolo said a major issue for the Conservatives in 2007 is whether Harper is prepared to make changes to grow the party's base. The fact Harper hasn't done so yet baffled him.

"He's no stronger now that he was on election night," Donolo said. But he added it's also dangerous to underestimate Harper.

Robert Fife, CTV News' Ottawa bureau chief, told CTV.ca that Dion shouldn't be underestimated either.

"He's got a reunited party. He has a lot of policies that people in urban Canada may identify with. People may say, 'You know what: We feel more comfortable with the Liberals'."

Fife said there isn't enough known yet about Liberal policies -- Dion has said the three pillars will be economic prosperity, social justice and environmental sustainability -- or how Harper will respond to them.

The Liberals are still split on Afghanistan, and are seen as having failed on the environment when they were in government, he said.

Some other factors include the drooping fortunes of the NDP and the apparent rising ones of the Green Party, he said.

Fife said he was looking forward to the coming months: "Both Harper and Dion are people with great integrity. They're both highly intelligent and strategic thinkers, and this is going to be one hell of a fight."