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Craig's Take: Too big to bail out

Craig Oliver Mark Carney, Bank of Canada governor, leaves after appearing as a witness at a finance committee on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, on Friday, Aug. 19, 2011. (Sean Kilpatrick / THE CANADIAN PRESS)
Craig Oliver

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Date: Friday Sep. 23, 2011 11:50 AM ET

If the world slips into the second recession in three years, as many leading economists believe it will, it will be much worse than the last one.

On the advice of an emergency meeting of the G20 in 2009, G8 governments poured billions of dollars into spending programs to stimulate their economies and head off a threatened free fall. Also, they reduced interest rates to near-zero to try and boost consumer demand.

At the time, Canada's fiscal position was strong, but Europe and the United States were already too heavily-indebted.

This time around, those nations do not have the financial firepower in their arsenals to repeat the process. They're all essentially insolvent.

Instead of stimulus programs, most are going in the opposite direction and have brought in severe austerity plans which some experts fear are weakening their economies.

Making matters far worse now is a sense of political drift and a lack of direction or leadership.

For two generations, European and American political leaders found it too easy to say yes to demands for new spending, using deficits to finance programs they could not afford rather than say no and risk the ire of voters. It was as if they believed they could run deficits forever.

They piled debt onto debt with each budget, assuming that some future government could be left to resolve the mess of indebtedness in a habit that became known in current parlance as kicking the can down the road.

Trouble is, they've come to the end of the road, and the debt has turned into an anvil which is no longer possible to kick any further.

In Europe and the United States, political leaders will not agree on a firm plan that will take them on a curve which would reduce debt over time.

Many of the richer European nations like Germany are refusing to bail out nations like Greece, Portugal and Ireland, which have used their entry into the eurozone like a credit card.

The banks of these countries are wallowing in so much red ink that, while they were considered to be too big to fail, have become too big to bail out.

We are left with the serious possibility of a eurozone banking crisis which could spread to North America and unhinge global markets.

On Question Period this week we'll talk to the head of the Bank of Canada, Mark Carney, and get his assessment of how serious the global monetary and fiscal problems are and if the banking system is strong enough to weather the storm.

But the essential problem is not a monetary one, it's a balance sheet crisis and that takes political action to resolve.

Since there's nothing more important to the Canadian economy than energy, we'll also deal with the fierce debate taking place in the United States and in Canada over the Keystone XL pipeline, a multi-billion dollar plan to pipe heavy oil from the Alberta oilsands to Texas.

Among others, we'll hear from Natural Resources Minister Joe Oliver.

Don't miss the show this week; we'll be talking about things that matter to you.

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Add New Comment ( )

InAwe
said

Why does no-one ever talk about the REAL reason that we are in difficult economic times? Tinkering with the system, lowering interest rates, baling out banks, helping the Euro countries, 'stimulation', building of infrastructure, etc, etc.....WILL DO NOTHING! The ONLY way that the economy can "grow" again is if the masses have money to spend!! The Capitalist System DEMANDS that the masses are forever looking for/wanting consumer products and are willing to spend their money. When that part of the equation changes (and no-one thought it would...EVER....especially the "smart economists"), then the whole system breaks down. Of course it is something "they" don't want to hear.The government, along with big and small businesses, act like a collective giant vacuum cleaner, and they have sucked almost everything out of the common-folks pockets....so how can they possibly keep on spending to support this economic system? Businesses single-minded goal of "profits, profits, and more profits", and Governments taxes, taxes, taxes, has FINALLY seen the death of the geese that laid the golden eggs - - everyday Joe and Joanne.There will be no solution to this crisis UNLESS this is discussed and the little people are offered something more than a few crumbs. Capitalism worked quite well for many years....since the end of the WWII, but since ~1980's "Capitalism Gone Mad" and the pursuit of massive profits above all else has ruined everything!! (Governments have allowed this to happen....under pressure from the bankers and other special interest groups, esp big business.) Of course "they" will be absolutely blind to this....either deliberately or otherwise.....so the little people will be held responsible.


JoeMacDonald
said

Ok all governments aside, all blaming the media aside, when are the people going to realize we have the power to change this. You have new families paying outrageous prices for houses, vehicles, ways of life they cannot afford. When the job market fails they default on the loans and the chartered banks are left to hold the bag of lead that is now an anchor on an already sinking economy. This does not mean that the governments are innocent, but as the people who voted them in there we have the power to vote them out and replace them with a more responsible government. Our resources, land and people are being exploited by foriegn governments. The media reports, I would hope that the people have enough sense to filter right and wrong. Canada on the world market are second in world oil suppliers, number 1 being Saudi Arabia. There is no revenue problem here, there is a spending problem. Responsibility should be taken out of the English language because nobody uses it anymore.


bawbee
said

How could Canada, a land almost floating on oil and filled with gold, coal, potash, zinc, copper, lead nickel, iron, sulfur, trees, fish and wheat, occupied by intelligent, hard-working, creative people ever land up in debt? If politicians and bankers can screw up a country with those attributes, then clearly banksters are manipulating things. There is nothing wrong with Canada that a proper financial system would't fix. Italy's time for business people to take back this land before it is wrecked by incompetents.


john messom creston bc
said

if the world goes into a recession again then the people to blame is the medial they are the one that is scaring the people every day that all you hear from the media is we could go back into a recession so then guess what happen people stop buying and then there we are so you take a person like craig oliver he is one of the medis that is scaring people here in canada please canadian dont listen to this person i have listen to this person talk for years and he has never been right so dont pay attention to this person or the media then every thing will be all right


John M in Vancouver
said

I'm more than a little worried about the economy over the next few years, and I appreciate Craig Oliver's take on this. I truly think we've gone past the "R" for recession and we're looking at the big "D" for the first time since the 1930s. How long until things improve? Well, buckle up, because I think it's going to be a long ride... say about five years, at least. Just look at the fundamentals, such as debt, and it's easy to see why it'll be so long.


Robert Doman
said

It's pretty discouraging because I do not see any real leadership in the U.S. at all. It's been eighteen years since Ross Perot sounded the alarm, and things have only gotten much worse. Chinese curse, "May you live in interesting times". Have a great weekend Craig.


A. Clausen
said

aw,Commodity prices aren't made up on the spot. Oil is bought and sold on an international market. Yes, OPEC does have some pricing control (though these days not as much as they'd like), but at the end of the day, you try to sell your oil at too high a price, you don't sell it at all, and you end blowing a hole in your own economy.


aw
said

Okay USA, you want a home grown policy of American Made, then Canadian Oil is not US oil. You pay for the pipeline in Canada, but Canadians will build it. US can pay our price as we set it. Why doesn't Canada take a stand?


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