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Finance minister encouraged by latest job numbers
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CTV.ca News Staff
Date: Fri. May. 8 2009 6:02 PM ET
The federal finance minister said last month's increase of self-employed workers, along with other improvements in the Canadian economy, shows the "recession is softening."
As the country has posted jobless numbers for months, Jim Flaherty told a business audience in Hamilton, Ont., he counted the job numbers released Friday among "the glimmers of hope" he's seeing on the economic recovery front.
However, he told CTV's Power Play host Tom Clark later Friday that he's still remaining "quite cautions about simply relying on one month's results."
Canada boasted a surprising 35,900 new workers in April as the unemployment rate remain unchanged at 8 per cent but economists say they're not convinced it's an indication that the economy is set to recover from the recession.
About 1,100 employees lost their jobs in April but the job gains were the result of an increase of 37,000 people who reported being self-employed, Statistics Canada reported Friday.
Economists warned about "trusting" the self-employment figures.
Michael Kane, with the Business News Network, told CTV Newsnet that there could have been errors in self- reporting during the survey.
"Perhaps somebody, when the survey is conducted, they say 'I lost my job but I'm working for myself now,'" he said.
Economists say the problem with self-employment is that it lacks a steady income and is considered a last resort for people who can't find jobs elsewhere.
A rise in self-employment could also be a signal of the country's weaking labour market, said Sylvain Schetagne, an economist with the Canadian Labour Congress.
"If you don't qualify for employment insurance or if you have exhausted your benefits and there are no jobs out there, what do you do?" he asked. "You sell everything and on social assistance or you become self-employed.
"They change their status from unemployed to self-employed but can they live on it?" he added.
However, analysts were quick to point out that even if the "self-employment" category was removed, overall employment would have shrunk by only 1,100 jobs in April -- a far cry from the 50,000 job loss that was originally predicted.
The numbers surprised the majority of economists and the news spurred a gain by the Canadian dollar by more than one cent to more than US86 cents for the first time since early November.
"This is a better than expected report that no one saw coming," economists at ScotiaCapital Inc said in a note.
"Yes, there were distortions including the heavy influence of a gain in self-employment that we mistrust at this point in the cycle. But the losses elsewhere were much less significant than feared."
Douglas Porter, of BMO Capital Markets, agreed and warned Canadians to remain cautious.
"The report is clearly good news but it's premature to send the all-clear signal," he told The Canadian Press.
Employment conditions in the U.S. were not as favourable.
About 539,000 U.S. jobs were lost in April, disappointing economists who believed encouraging developments in the manufacturing, housing and sales industries would have a greater impact on the numbers. However, the job-loss figure was less than what economists predicted for Americans.
David King, a recruitment expert with Robert Half International, said he's not sure the gains in Canada's job market will continue.
"One month doesn't necessarily make a major story but certainly the shock this morning is a reassuring one," King told CTV's Canada AM on Friday.
The employment gains occurred in information, culture and recreation; business, building and other support services; "other services"; and agriculture.
Employment was unchanged in manufacturing and construction.
All the employment growth in April occurred in Quebec (+22,000) and British Columbia (+17,000).
Meanwhile, employment declined in Nova Scotia (-4,100) and Newfoundland and Labrador (-2,800). There was little change in the other provinces.
The increase in employment in April was spread between adult men aged 25 and over (+25,000) and older women aged 55 and over (+12,000).
Despite April's job gains, overall employment has fallen by 321,000 since October 2008.
Since last October, employment has declined for men aged 25 to 54 (-2.9 per cent) and youths aged 15 to 24 (-4.7 per cent), whereas it has increased for older workers (+0.9 per cent).
Earlier this week, Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney said he expects the country's economy to continue on its downward spiral until the last quarter of 2009.
"In the end, (April's gain) doesn't matter because it's an aberration to what will be a full year of job losses, said Derek Holt, an economist with Scotia Capital. He pointed to further expected layoffs in the auto industry.
Canada has lost 321,000 jobs and 356,000 employees since October.
With files from The Canadian Press
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If 5000 jobs can be so vital to the nation's economy, they should get what they ask for in bargaining. Simple.
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Comments are now closed for this story
Ed, Toronto
said
But really, good people have less uncertainty as self-employed. Company layoffs seem to come more because of being in the wrong place at the wrong time, or by (lack of) seniority, especially if unions are involved. Rarely by competence, again, especially if unions are involved. Our work just grew and grew, as did that of all of our clients. My wife's hairdresser started up at home a couple of years ago and now works long hours almost every day. My wife called today to make an appointment and found he's booked till August. Good people charging a fair price are always in demand. Incompetents and lazy people who want to be overpaid need a union.
WHAT
said
How many of those are for Elections BC, who hired in April for what? a month...Remember last falls federal election, when the media came out with job number increases - how many were working for elections BC.
How about student's and seasonal labourers, just going back to work as they have in the past...when a sawmill shifts start going back to work or the mass independent business in the building industry go back to work, taht's when things will be getting better...IT TAKES TIME,,let's not trick ourselves...U only get better the next day from a 24 hour flu, "THIS is not a 24 hour flu,,,,yes canada has fared better...and the recession in the US started back in 2007,when we were still riding the wave...hopefully Canadians won't have to wait as long as our working neighbors,,,point is we still have to wait...We have been conditioned to expect new products, stimulates on a daily basis,,,what would you do if you couldn't go shopping?
Rick in SK
said
Kevin in Toronto
said
It affects 4?
I'm talking actual numbers. Nowhere near a million. Look it up. Not even half.
You used the Statscan number for the 36,000 but made up your own number for the previous months.
Spud Lite
said
Yes, they saw it coming, and they realized that some collective effort would have been required to counter the actions of these greedy rapacious suits in the USA.
They also realized that they could not collectivize (probably not a word) to counter the whole sub-prime progression, because it would have required an international effort to refuse all of the "creative" economic products that were emanating from the US financial institutions. The fallout - bankruptcies, unemployment is really not their fault.
Lone economists are like canaries in coal mines. Except they never stop chirping.
Dave from Jim Flahertys riding
said
see Gasoline go up this summer AGAIN then this will effect consumer spending and kill the Auto industry that is cutting jobs daily .
karl
said
Is it not a fact that the reason this country is in "better shape" than other nations is because of the policies introduced by formal finance minister, Paul Martin. Whether you are left,right or central, you have to give Paul Martin credit for much of the positives we currently find our selves in.
These job numbers are somewhat optimistic, at least we appear not to be losing jobs at the rate of other western major economies, but look out, the next few months may show a less rosy picture as we see the effect of job losses in the auto sector and the further erosion of the entire manufacturing sector. To be fair to the Tories, they can do little about these job losses. Western governments decided to adopt policies that would open our markets to cheap goods, because we consumers apparently demanded cheaper goods. Western governments decided that our workers were paid to much to manufacture those products you buy at Walmart.
A by product of our immigration policy was to import immigrants that would do jobs for minimum wage that apparently you and I would not do. Even those jobs are disappearing because of the theory that the world will become one economy. Canada built an economy on such immigration, now we are building a welfare state around these same immigrants. I am for immigration provided the economic policies are in align.
Has the quality of your life improved with cheaper products, or do you feel more stressed??
Marg
said
Just goes to show you that this is a volatile and unpredictable economy. To all of you that say PM Harper didn't know about the recession, blah, blah blah.
What do you say now???
Does that mean that the majority of economists are not credible and can't do their job, or does it really mean that this is a world wide recession that no-one could have predicted with any certainty what would happen and when. Not even your newly "crowned" Liberal leader, and certainly not Jack Layton!!!!
How's the Gov't Responsible for this?
said
Larry I Ontario
said
Another name to replace the word "UNEMPLOYED"
said
Motivation is another issue if you don't have a plan. Bills are still coming in - non stop!
In order to collect Unemployment Insurance nowasday you need to work for 900 hours - 6 months in order to collect maximium of 55% of your gross income for a maxamium of 52 weeks.
Therefore it is TOUGH to get on the line and try to get your share of the pie!
Overall, "Self employ" sounds a lot better than "Unemployed". But again, how much money you really bring home is the reality!
Simon in Toronto
said
The most amazing thing I've seen in the last few months is how well lots of small-to-medium size businesses are doing through this recession. We all know about who's hurting, and how badly. Now we need to hear about the success stories. We need to encourage more people to chase their entrepreneurial dreams. As the old saying goes, there's no time like the present!
Dave T
said
Vic
said
Canadian job seekers could not benefit from TSX index thousand points advanced. As TSX surging shares are mainly related to Western Canada Oil and Natural resources companies.
Still Cold in MB
said
I'm self employeed too, 39, 3 kids, wife's gone back to school. Did not have the luxury of working for 23 years in an office job, as it seems the average life of job (company lifespan it seems) is 3-4 years . You were probably "taken care of" by a medium/big company, paid well, decent benefits... vacations. Now that your kids are grown, you most expensive and time consuming years passed, being self employed works well. But would that have been the case 23 years ago? Don't forget you get to double up your CPP contributions as an employer. And "REAL" vacations, out of the question, as your customers need you at their convenience, not yours. And the uncertainty of work... it might have weighed heavier when the kids were home, and postman always delivered the bills on time. Your comment indicating others need to take care of themselves, rings in as one of those "pot calling the kettle black" comments.
Spud Lite
said
The fellow who laid me off suggested that I get into consulting, so I did.
Although I've had a brief period of full-time work in the interim, I've spent the balance of the last 17 years as a consultant, and have found it to be a win-win situation for a couple of reasons.
1) There is no longer the pretence of loyalty between an employee and a corporate entity. No more hurt feelings. When the contract's up, you move on.
2) The money's better - you just need to know how to apportion it, square yourself with CRA, investments, insurance, etc. And an employer no longer needs to worry about you as an individual. You're just a resource.
Once you develop a realistic attitude about yourself vis-a-vis the workforce, your self-sufficency is increased about 100-fold.
Dave from Toronto
said
Hi Rick, I too am self-employed and have spent years building my business. Which is awesome. My point was how in one month can an unemployed person, become self-employed and earn a living? Likely they were doing projects on the side before and then when laid off and became 100% invloved in their "side" business. But starting directly from scratch is hard hard work, getting business is hard work and many people who consider themselves self-employed actually earn no money, especially in the beginning.
Stu from London
said
Kevin in Toronto
said
A million have lost their jobs since January 1st?
Check your numbers.
Not even close.
Simon in Toronto
said
You're omitting the fact that in both countries, liberal governments followed conservative governments that had laid the groundwork for future growth. In Canada, the 2 biggest influences on our economy through the Chretien years were free trade with the US and the implementation of the GST. Chretien successfully managed a good economy by 1) not messing up Mulroney's work, and 2) stealing ideas from the Reform Party. All of that has been well and widely reported over the years.
In the States, Reagan's reforms led directly to a decade of growth. The Republicans would have been able to enjoy your so-called mapping if not for Ross Perot, who facilitated the election of Bill Clinton with only 43% of the popular vote. (And to think that *some* people questioned GWB's creds with 49.8%!)
The same basic path was followed in the UK: Thatcher fixed things, her successors for a time enjoyed the fruits of her labour, then proceeded to make a mess of things.
Seen in this light, the recent global economic decline can be blamed on politicians (including GWB) who strayed from the successful policies of their capitalist predecessors. The last thing we need now is more of same!
DD from ON
said
I'm self-employed and have loads of work coming my way because I perform well.
How many people's jobs have a guarantee against them being fired?
Wilf
said
Look - all a recession really is - is a big clearance sale. There has been too much production, or a drop in demand, and extra things need to be cleared out to bring everything back in balance.
There are too many cars, so they need to be cleared out. Likewise with cameras, houses and with jobs in the areas where there has been too much production.
Then, after the clearance is done, away we go again.
The best way to do this is by letting the real customers (the market) take care of it.
The worst thing to do is let government try to stop it. Like the Liberal/NDP idea that if a welfare cheque arrives 5 minutes late it's a national crisis. That only makes things worse and the recession longer and deeper..
Rick in SK
said
The unemployed became self employed? Did any of them actually earn money? I know some "self-employed" people who do not earn much...like the guy on the corner who I put a twoonie in his cup once in awhile."
Hmm... well like I said before, I am self employed, I didn't even finish grade ten and I know I make a lot more than my doctor. If you are willing to work, improve your job related skills, save and invest, pay off your debts, you will do very well in life.
Brian Grafton
said
The way I see it these are the smart people who realize that this whole econmoic meltdown was and is the result of big business and banks being greedy, and the government being to near sighted to see what was coming. As for us average canadians and small business folk, we're doing just fine thank you very much! And if you folks in the media would learn to put a cork in it once in awhile and quit yapping about all the terrible things happening, we'd all be a lot better off. Of course if you insist on keeping up your doom and gloom reporting, well honestly the only people you are really hurting are the big businesses like Walmart and the like, and that doesn't hurt my feelings one little bit. Me and the several million other small business owners in Canada will be more then happy to pick up the slack!
Prof. Pye Chartt
said
"Fortunately parliamentarians representing a majority of Canadians were able to force the Conservatives to acknowledge the economic disaster and take some steps in common with our trading partners to deal with the crisis."
_____________________
It took me several minutes to respond to your post, Alex, as I was laughing too hard. Talk about peeling your own partisan banana and then slipping on it.
Rather, my friend, the Liberals and NDP in Parliament ran around like a bunch of chickens with their head cut off in a fit of political desperation, pointing in all directions, and calling for PM Harper to do "something"...but they weren't exactly sure what.
Your revisionism (recent history) is just another sad and exceedingly lame attempt to discolor this latest piece of good economic news because it runs contrary to your anti-Conservative political agenda.
Let it go, and be positive. Doing so will lower your political blood pressure.
Tim
said
JB in Calgary
said
Ok people quick lesson in Unemployment. You can't use the total population of Canada to determine Unemployment and we'll use the 2005 numbers as an example.
In 2005 the total Adult population was 25.81 million the Labour Force was 17.34 million. The LF includes people who are looking for work and who are working. The other 8.46 million are not in the labour force, this includes students, home-maker, retirees and all others that are not looking for work THESE ARE NOT INCLUDED IN UNEMPLOYMENT.
In 2005 there were 1.17 million unemployed and 16.17 million employed. So an increase in jobs of 35,000 people using 2005 numbers works out to a 0.2% deacrease in unemployment. This is worked out by (# of unemployed)/(labour force) X 100.
0.2% decrease in unemployment one month is pretty good (obviously 2005 numbers are not the same as 2009, but there wouldn't be much of a difference).
So Ian please learn how to do the math before you start making comments about the math.
Sam Anderson in Calgary
said
Clarke from Edmonton
said
But the point 35,000 jobs may not seem like a lot, but if you were to gain 35,000 jobs per month for an entire year, that would add up to 420,000 jobs. If you estimate that 20 million people work in Canada (or want to work), that would be an increase of 2.1% in jobs over 1 year. That in any estimation would be a good increase on a per year basis. So don't downplay the fact that we gained 35,000 jobs...it is better than you think.
Linda in Vancouver
said
I certainly agree with people who insist Canada has a lot of work ahead if we want a competetive economy that provides a decent living for all of us.That is nation builing,and it goes on forever.
What troubles me,is the large number of people who seem to actually be hoping that we fail.This news is better than the predictions by economists.And it is only one small ray of hope in difficult times.I would't expect the haters and the doomsday crowd to actually be grateful or optimistic in the face of reasonably decent news.But hoping our country fails just so the political party of your choice can secure the reins of power? How pathetic is that?
It's quite sad,but it now appears that the worst news those Harper Haters can imagine,is an economy in recovery.They are so filled with anger and hatred that they actually hope the recession goes on and on.Their greatest fear is that the economy might actually get better BEFORE they defeat the Harper government.
Well,I like success for my country.I would much rather live successfully with a leader I don't like very much than with failure and a leader I adore.And,I am always open to changing my vote.Party loyalty comes AFTER loyalty to country.
And yes,I can reveal my own bias.I was Liberal,but now support Conservative ideas and policies on MOST major issues.I also think anyone who agrees with all of the policies of one party is letting somone else do their thinking for them.That may make a good case for better education.
Decidedly Libra
said
HARPER - 2 LIBERAL ECONOMISTS - 0
SELF EMPLYED
said
I've run my own business for the past 12 years. There is nothing like desperation to get the mind working on solutions!
Frank Buchan (Vauxhall, Alberta by way of Ontario)
said
Matt Fownes, PC, Halifax
said
Warren AB
said
Linda in Ottawa
said
Ian- Alberta
said
Alex (Toronto)
said
The job growth in April is clearly a sign of resilience, not long-term strength. Canada's highly-educated labor force can fall back on their own skills when capital-driven businesses are collapsing. It indicates a failure of large companies in the private sector; when greed and incompetence take down the big companies, individual initiative is the only option left for some people.
If partisan bloggers want to shout out every small tick in stats as an indication of long-term trends, they might want to look at a poll or two lately. The reality is that governments around the world are obliged to take similar actions, regardless of their political orientations, and that Canada has some advantages from its long-term values and fundamentals, not its short-term politics. Fortunately parliamentarians representing a majority of Canadians were able to force the Conservatives to acknowledge the economic disaster and take some steps in common with our trading partners to deal with the crisis.
Mykey, The Lakehead
said
X-treme right wing in NB
said
This is the first time I can remember when our rate was lower than the US.
Wait until the infrastructure money kicks in this summer.
I think this is great news. I know the liberals would really like to see our country implode just so they could get elected.
AH
said
They are either unemployment,and working a pt job, or they have started up their own business.
Also,this is peak season for people working in landscaping or construction, or farming.
But the problem is by the fall people will not be able to do landscaping , or gardening, etc. That is when they will need the better paying jobs.
I guess this will give the govt some more time to do it.
Astro
said
JB in Calgary
said
Still negative people showing numbers from a year ago. Look at the entire graph on the TSX, as far back as it will go. A year ago the economy was overinflated and finally it has corrected itself. 10,000 on the TSX is exactly where we should be from the 25 year trend.
8.1% unemployment is still within the natural rate for Canada.
Get off the pot people, Economists base everything on Theory and Trends. It's not like viewing an apple falling from a tree and figuring out that objects fall at a constant 9.81m/s. Things flucuate life flucuates nobody can know exactly what is going to happen.
But I will have everybody note that Harper said from the beginning that Canada is fine and that we will recover faster than anybody else. Hmmm...Maybe Harper does know what's going on hey?
George Lawrence from Thunder Bay ON
said
André in Ontario
said
I'm sure that you have had some success stories but lets get serious but what is actually going on here. Seasonal workers are the jobs that are out there & paying minimum wages at best & as you may know as a accountant that most self employed make little or no money in the beginning & most fail. I'm sure you want to make these number seem substantial but if you look at past recessions there has been several up ticks in jobs & several months again of job losses. Congratulations to you & your wife on creating you own business & hope it continues for you.
Dave from Toronto
said
Frank (Toronto)
said
Make no mistake, this is a good news story. Lets just take it as that. It's been nothing but doom and gloom ever since the pre-recession stock market correction that had the lefty media and opposition crying "the sky is falling!!!"
Look, this unemployment report (seasonally adjusted by the way, meaning it's numbers are a true reflection of what's happening in the economy at this time)by no means indicates Canada is out of the woods. But it may well mean Ottawa's stimulus plan is just beginning to take effect. Let's wait and see what happens over the next few months before we start throwing more borrowed money out the door as the opposition is already demanding.
If this report proves to be nothing but a blip on the screen, then lets just be greatful for the refreshing break from "doom and gloom".
NBOntario
said
Maureen
said
So I Sez
said
Canadian Scot
said
Is this a case of "lies, bloody lies and statistics"?
Wendy
said
Spring cleaning, cutting grass nothing substantial.
No jobs created by the government?
This article only tells us that the lame duck Harper government has done absolutely nothing in creating jobs.
Spenc from BC
said
Darren
said
Ed, Toronto
said
When my wife was downsized back in the late 80's, she started her own professional accounting practice. When I got downsized about six years later (after 23 years in an office), I joined her, as the business had grown to be too much for one person. Most of our clients were self-employed computer consultants, with a denturist, a toxic waste cleaner-upper, a professional engineer, a psychologist, a lawyer, etc. All made a good living and had absolutely no desire to work for a company. Most (including ourselves) worked from home most of the time, creating zero pollution or road congestion going to and from work. The flexibility allowed my wife the ability to care for her elderly parents when needed.
It's interesting how some people can't seem to visualize any other way of working except for some big company whom they see as the enemy to form a union and strike against. If more people took responsibility and worked for themselves instead of demanding that others take care of them, this would be a far stronger country.
Easterner
said
Do they really think we are that naive!?Oh, wait, by the comments on here, I think they have a case....
Dave from NB - On the way to self sufficiency
said
Asad Burlington
said
Less talk and more action. Cut my taxes and let prople who produce something get my money instead of the Government.
Alan in Kitchener
said
RedX
said
Today, Unemployment is 8.0%, the TSX 9,967.05
Harper is an Economist?!
Tom in London
said
I'm sure the media will find a negative somewhere they can blow out of proportion, afterall the only news should be doom and gloom.
AJW-Ontario
said
The other half would probably be the low-paying jobs created for university and college students as well.
André in Ontario
said
Prof. Pye Chartt
said
To the quasi-informed, grossly misinformed crowd of regular posters who gleefully propagate doom and gloom while forecasting the end of Life as we know it, and the prescriptive cure of a New World Order in which "free-market" capitalism is dead and the socioeconomic engineering of government reigns supreme...
Sorry for the good news.
P.S. Rest assured, however, that your frantic political heroes still have ample opportunity to screw up any ongoing advancements.
Calvin - Self employed Busy & Happy
said
Anybody that wants to work can work. Maybe 4% of the population is lazy and got sent home because they don't work hard enough or are completely undependable or what to be in customer service but have rings hanging out of thier noses.
Ei premiems just means our products cost more than Chinas causing unemployment, forget looking for hand outs and get to work.
terri
said
Fredhu in Mtl
said
What a difference compared to the last few months when there was no traffic at all.
Turns out our province has added 22,000 jobs in April.
Let's just hope we have hit the bottom of this recession and from now on things will slowly start to improve, like some economists are saying. The thing is this will be a very long recovery.
Hopefully May's numbers will confirm the positive trend. We all need some good news for a change :)
Cheers!
Chris in Kingston
said
Sheriff Joe from Kelowna
said
Rick in SK
said
All in all this is a good news story.
A Koster - BC
said
Well Good News?.. I'm not sure that you understand the meaning of "distortion" or "mistrust", and maybe just maybe the article downplays it because, while they are committed to reporting these stats, they know it's a load of bunk. That's called responsible journalism in my books.
Larry I ontario
said
Eyes Wide Open
said
The economy is now starting to rise once again. Let's just hope that Canadians truly see that the Liberals and NDP are all about scare tactics and fear mongering. The double standard in this country is sickening.
Tyler Calgary - Liberals want Liberal Policy Gone?
said
-_-
said
Steve M
said
Nancy: NS Choose Tory Good times or Left Behind
said
Gord. Robson, Nova Scotia
said
Too much doom and gloom and now some people do NOT want to believe something good.
I welcome this news! Our government is doing a GOOD job, we need to support them!
Nancy: Canada number one
said
The Liberals sounded a lot like Suzuki the end is near and all that. The last recession in the dirty 30's mostly only the men worked so we had 50% unemployment with women staying home. Now we have what 94% employment. Don't forget a lot of people also work in the underground economy under the table while receiving EI or some other social program. Sometimes people pay Nannys under the table too.
When I see what the Provincial Liberal Govenment did to the car industry and adding $300. for every a green report on every house sale to learn a new furnance would use less guess it is no Surprize Ontario accounts for most of the weak job numbers. Times are still pretty good, just quit listenting to the dooms day liberals.
Barb - Ottawa
said
Good News
said
Tommies
said
Andrew Moffat
said
The government may be trying to stimulate the economy by issuing good news stories...
Or;
As I believe; they are trying to miss-direct the Canadian people so that we will not question the government's bungling of the cash injections to stimulate the economy.
Until we can admit we have a problem...we will not be able to properly deal with the issues.
We need a national dialogue. If recent evolutions in the web have demonstrated anything..it is that great ideas can come from the most unlikely places. A national dialogue moderated by CTV/Canada AM could facilitate a collaborative (public/private sector)solution to the current situation.