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West Nile toll much higher than believed: Study

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CFTO News: Report triples official estimate of West Nile cases in Ontario
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Date: Thu. Feb. 20 2003 6:37 AM ET

A report by an infectious disease expert indicates there were many more human cases of West Nile in Ontario last year than the Ministry of Health is admitting to -- perhaps as many as 1,000.

Dr. Neil Rau and a group doctors at the University of Toronto report that
there were 1,000 suspected cases of West Nile in Ontario.

That's almost three times higher than the Ministry of Health's reported claim of 374 cases.

The summer of 2002 marked Canada's first-ever human cases of West Nile. One Canadian died of the illness in 1999, but he was infected on a visit to New York.

West Nile is expected to have a huge impact on the Canadian health care system. Experts predict the span of the mosquito-borne illness will reach from coast to coast by next summer.

About 20 per cent of the people who contract West Nile develop symptoms including fever and headaches. In more serious cases, the disease can cause encephalitis, inflammation of the brain that can result in death. Young children and the elderly are considered most at risk.

Dr. Rau says last year there were 11 deaths due to West Nile in the Greater Toronto area alone -- far greater than provincial figure of 11 across province.

Dr. Rau says that's because the province's testing requirements are too rigorous -- and unnecessary. The province requires two blood tests for confirmation of a diagnosis of West Nile.

His report cites another problem in reporting: Most people who get sick enough with West Nile to be hospitalized wind up staying for at least a month. They develop complications or have pre-existing conditions, and in the end, West Nile is not listed as the cause of death.

Dr. Colin D'Cunha, Ontario's chief medical officer of health, says he won't contest the figures Rau's team is presenting, but says there are "limitations of science" to be recognized, and that lab testing technology is limited at this time.

D'Cunha also says he would not be surprised if many more people were infected than have been reported.

With a report from CFTO News

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