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Building peace in postwar Iraq to be a challenge
Michael O'Hurley-Pitts, Special to CTV.ca
Date: Wed. Apr. 9 2003 7:13 PM ET
It was in the final days of the Second World War that the Cold War was born. The spectacular military victories over Berlin and Tokyo belied the political failures in Moscow and Washington that plunged the world into perpetual tension throughout the second half of the 20th century.
Hard line political positions based on the immediacy of the moment amongst the United States, Britain and the U.S.S.R. led them all to ignore emerging opportunities with greater potential for their long-term interests.
Despite considerable preparations for the interim post-war governance of Iraq, the U.S. needs to stay flexible enough to consider the evolving environment and opportunities. This requires the U.S. to not only be open to new ideas but be able to recognize them for what they are -- opportunities.
The political environment has not only changed since the U.S. led invasion began, but it will continue to be dynamic, fluid and changing on an almost hourly basis.
A highly skeptical and frantic Arab world needs a good measure of reassurance that occupation is not a U.S. objective. King Abdullah of Jordan is suffering from a growing sense of mistrust and unrest among his people, specifically because of his close ties to the U.S. Turkey continues to watch their ancient rivals to the south -- northern Iraq’s Kurdistan. Iran is keeping a weary eye on the unfolding events in Iraq, not only because of their shared religious interests in the Shi’ite people but because of U.S. President George Bush’s inclusion of Iran as part of the "axis of evil."
Outside the region, many nations continue to look to post-war reconstruction. They not only desire a role in humanitarian relief but in a newly established government that will have to re-join the world community on its own terms.
The legitimacy of that government will be judged not only by its ability to define itself independently of the U.S., but by its ability to reestablish a stable, just and economically prosperous society free of the shackles of dictatorship.
Jay Garner, the retired U.S. general who has been appointed by the Bush administration to lead Iraq as its “civilian administrator,” has his work cut out for him. First, Gen. Garner’s team of handpicked American, “true believers” selected to help him run Iraq must gain the trust of the Iraqi people. That he reports to Gen. Tommy Franks, the war’s military commander, will no doubt cause many to see him as nothing more than a military governor in civilian clothing. Second, the longer the U.S. must occupy Iraq in order to establish an environment ripe for self-governance, the more anti-U.S. activists on the Arab street will have fodder for their cause.
It is true what they say about military victories -- war may be hell but peace can be miserable.
Iraq will also have to overcome two major obstacles in order to fully re-emerge as a member of the world community, taking its place at the United Nations as a self-governing nation. One, embrace stability as quickly as possible under post-war U.S. administration; and two, emerge with a cohesive government capable of re-uniting the three traditionally identified Iraqi factions - Sunni, Shi’ite and Kurd.
The internal situation will remain precarious for some time to come. But equally important is external stability. During Bush’s recent trip to Belfast, he declared that the UN would have a “significant role” in the rebuilding of Iraq. This is not so much a signal that Bush wants to once again embrace the UN but a greater reflection of the pragmatics of international relations. It seems even Bush has realized that involving the broader world community in the reconstruction of Iraq, through the auspices of the UN, does advance U.S. policy objectives.
The UN can help reduce regional tension in the Middle East, undercut the perception that the U.S. is a conqueror not liberator, and begin the cost shifting of the financial burden of the war from the shoulders of U.S. taxpayers embroiled in a sagging economy (fast approaching a U.S. presidential election year).
The best chance the U.S. has of creating an environment in which Gen. Garner can lead an interim government that keeps the Iraqi people from devolving into an ungovernable, regionally-driven society is to re-integrate the country as a true member of the world community as quickly as possible.
Taking cues from regional partners and putting aside pre-invasion disputes with France, Germany and Russia is the fastest, cheapest and best way to get Iraq back on its feet. This will greatly assist with efforts to normalize what are traditionally highly complex and tense regional relationships even in the absence of war.
With many competing interests vested in the multiple Iraqi contenders that will lead Iraq into new self-government, the U.S. has both an opportunity and the burden of stewarding Iraq into a new age. Whether Iraq will once again fall into conflict, or emerge into prosperity and stability, will largely depend on the decisions made in the immediacy of the moment.
Inviting the world community to advise and assist in the decision-making process for re-building Iraq and the region, while remaining cognizant that “Iraq belongs to the Iraqis,” is critical to the world’s long-term interest. It will also be the best way to help a new government emerge free from being painted as a U.S. vassal state.
It is yet to be seen whether or not the seeds for a new, Middle Eastern, “cold war” will be sown through a pax Americana by repeating mistakes of the past by Gen. Garner being an administrator governed by Gen. Franks and his Pentagon boss Donald Rumsfeld, or if he will earn a reputation as a nation builder, guided by the Department of State and Colin Powell in the mold of Gen. Marshall.
Michael O’Hurley-Pitts is a military and international relations analyst for CTV.
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Have you ever heard the adage - You can catch more flies with honey than a fly swatter. Any changes cannot take place overnight. China is a communist country and not a democratic one. Don't expect any PM from any party to walk in there and try to tell them how to run their country.
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