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Canada's real estate market likely to cool: report

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Date: Tuesday Dec. 20, 2011 7:55 PM ET

Canada is at the top of a list of 10 developed nations when it comes to the health of our real estate market, but activity is expected to cool here too, according to a new report from Scotiabank.

The report into global real estate trends says the slow pace of the global economic recovery, intensifying sovereign debt worries, high unemployment and weak consumer confidence are all putting pressure on the global market.

"Of the ten developed economies we track reporting data for the third quarter, average inflation-adjusted home prices were below year-ago levels in seven, the same as in the second quarter," said Adrienne Warren in the report.

"Canada remained a notable outperformer, though activity here too shows some signs of cooling."

The report stated that Canada's continued buoyancy is "impressive" but said monthly data through November shows a levelling-off of prices since the spring.

"Ultra-low interest rates are still attracting buyers, but increased economic uncertainty combined with some recent slowing in the pace of hiring could dampen demand in the new year," the report stated.

Across the 10 countries included in the report, low borrowing costs and lower prices have generally boosted the affordability of homes, but not sufficiently to counteract the slowing economies, cautious lending conditions and an oversupply of housing in most markets.

The current weak market conditions are expected to last "well into 2012," the report says.

The following list shows the percentage change between inflation-adjusted home prices in the third quarter of 2011, and the third quarter of 2010.

  • Canada: 4.8 per cent
  • France: 4.4 per cent
  • Switzerland: 3.3 per cent
  • Sweden: -1.9 per cent
  • Japan: -3.3
  • Australia: -5.7
  • U.K.: -6.7
  • U.S.: -7.5
  • Spain: -8.9
  • Ireland: -14.7

Within Europe, France has the strongest real estate market, just behind Canada in terms of year-over-year price comparisons. Ireland is at the opposite end of the spectrum, with a stunning 14.7 per cent decline in home prices.

The report, however, said France's near record-high prices appear to be unsustainable in the country with high unemployment, government austerity and slowing exports.

In Ireland, severe home price declines have effectively wiped out a decade's worth of price appreciation, the report said, with average home prices down 44 per cent from early 2007 highs.

Meanwhile, in a report released Monday, Bank of America Merrill Lynch warned Toronto's burgeoning condo market could be headed for a fall.

The investment company said many of Toronto's condos (43,000 are under currently construction) are being snapped up by investors as rental properties.

But as the economy slows and the supply grows, rents will fall. That could mean investors will be unable to charge the rents needed to make a profit, and as a result will try to sell their units and get out of the market.

They'll likely be selling at a loss, Merrill Lynch said, which will drive down prices for anyone else selling property in the Toronto market.

The report said a worst-case scenario could see a 15 per cent drop in prices in the next two years.

Comments are now closed for this story

Steve in Vancouver
said
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This week a report said the housing market is going to cool down. Last week reports said the housing market was in a steady increase with prices rising. l am going to make a prediction. Within the next month or two house prices will increase. and then they will cool down again. and then they will go up again. and then down. no wait l have lost track l think up oh wait wait yes up no down. Ok lm lost.


Facts/Fiction
said
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RE: Justin LaddWay to deliver such a factual statement. Kaboom? What indicators are you seeing? How do you back this up? Are you the same guy who never bought when a 1 bedroom condo was 300K? and now you are looking at the same one for 500K... Are you waiting for the Kaboom to bring you back in time? There will always be "adjustments" but its hard to see the kaboom you are talking about. The minute the correction happened this summer in the condo market we saw multiple offers because the doom and gloomers sit and wait while the pro-active buy and prosper. Not every investment is a good one in any industry so not everyone has made money in Real Estate but the doom and gloomers sure have not and will not...


Will
said
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And now we will have the usual suspects chanting about the upcoming "popping of the housing bubble" which they have gone on about for the last 4 years..... still waiting? Sorry, not happening. The collapse in the US was due to other economic conditions that don't apply here, but nice try.....keep chanting. Maybe someday you'll see that miniscule drop of 0.12% that you are whining for.


Justin Ladd
said
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Why are Canadians refusing to heed warnings? They're acting like passengers on the Titanic whom waited too late as they kept soothing themselves with little lies that there would be enough life boats if they just don't get in the one that looks too crowded. Get out/off while you can because the ship is going down in the realestate market ka-boom crash. You will owe more than your little dream house is worth. Then you will foolishly want to kick yourself for being so naive.


Ryan, Guelph
said
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@Francisco: No, no one would sell their house for 15% less... but the BANKS will, when interest rates go up, and the bubble bursts, leaving people unable to pay their mortgages and go bankrupt. I keep thinking we should sell now, and get an apartment until the inevitable happens, but my wife likes our house too much. :P


E.
said
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People need to realize that housing isn't supposed to be an asset class. Once you start to view a house as your "castle" and a place to live and raise your family, instead of a bank machine, you will be a lot happier. If your lucky it will be worth more than you paid for it in 15-20 years. Pay down your mortgage as fast as you can, that's all you need to be concerned with.


George V.
said
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With mortgage interest rates still at an all time low, With our strong population growth because Canada is still one of the worlds most favourite places to immigrate to, With less and less rental properties being developed because of rental laws strongly favouring the tennants. Your personal dwelling is still your best, safest investment for your future and retirement and your capital gain is tax exempt With Canada's economy still being one of the strongest in the world, not affected near as much as as a lot of other countries by economic woes. We will see housing prices in general remain where they are for quite some time to come or for that matter continue to climb. We will continue to hear the lamenting "do you know what I could have bought that house for, I should have bought it." In the 38 years as a RealEstate broker I never experienced a down turn, it leveled off and than started to climb again, The best investment you can make in your life-time is your own personal dwelling.


Alice in Montreal
said
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The country is filling up with Home Depot inspired showroom homes that all smell like that distinctive "Made in China" plastic. Not exactly my cup of tea. Time to correct the over-hyped and inflated fairy-tale that has managed to manipulate too many Canadians into its web. Look south of the border to see the writing on the wall and the foreclosure nightmares. This country too is due for a major comeuppance.


Dave in Saanich
said
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For all the people who complain about current house prices.... please go out and buy a house because as soon as you do you will stop complaining and walk around with a smile as house prices increase over time. For those who will not buy a house, stop complaining about something you have no vested interest.


Rat-RippeR
said
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Likely to cool ...now thats an understatement . Just do a search on MSL and look at the thousands of homes for sale outside the cities in southern Ontario . In the Lindsay , Peterborough areas in particular the number homes not selling is growing like crazy . A year ago you could find 10 or maybe 15 homes for sale in the country side around Lindsay for example , now there are hundreds . The price of gasoline , increased taxes on country homes , no cable , only well water , septic tanks etc etc etc is making people think twice about country living . Dial up internet sucks and having 3 TV channels that are 80% commercials is even worse . Country living use to be sought after , not any more . It just cost too much and the lack of internet and TV is not what kids want and they let their parents know it !


Richard
said
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The average real wage has not increased in any direct relationship to the amount of average home price increases, especially here in Saskatchewan in the last 5 years. The eventual net result is that housing market and prices will see a major correction downward sometime, unless of course a federal ruling comes to bring universal wages up as well........but that of course is only done with minimums. I look forward to a severe drop to bring the two into alignment, yet also feel for those that have bought in on the high side.


Mitch in Kitch
said
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I understand all of you who own a house, who are hoping that it doubles in value so you can soak some poor fool and retire - give me thumbs down. Everyone else who would like to be able to afford a house for it's true value, we're all waiting for this to crash. We just want to own our own home, not poison the economy with massively inflated prices.


ron in bc
said
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here in bc the cost of developing land and building houses has skyrocketed because of increased restrictions-inspections of building codes, environment-home owner protection etc. all of which has pushed the costs up significantly. if you want more affordable housing, get rid of the absurd new rules like counting how many frogs live in a roadside ditch or protecting an abandoned birds nest in a tree on a building site


Bea
said
0 0

Why are people so stupid that they are buying crap real estate for FAR too much money? People buying real estate, particularly in Edmonton, act absolutely stunned. Do they not understand value? If more people refused to buy at these ridiculous prices there would be some sanity in the real estate market and people would get value for their money. Stop and think before buying crap. Even 'sheep' would think twice and use more intelligence before 'investing' the way Edmontonians do.


Dean
said
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To everybody that says homes are too expensive and things need to cool off. There will always be something that is 15% to expensive. To say if it cools off ... then you would buy. But the truth is there will ALWAYS be something that is just out of reach. You would love to have a Porsche ... but can only have a Honda. To bitch about the price of a Porsche is stupid. They cost what they cost. Buy what you can afford and move on. Or get a better job, and make MORE money! The price would not be what it is if people were not buying it. As long as some people have money ... the best locations for homes will be EXPENSIVE. Deal with it. For the guy in Vancouver ... move out to Burnaby or Chillawack ... if Downtown or West Van is to expensive.


Francisco
said
0 0

This will not happen. because nobody will sell their home at 15% less then what they bought it. Also Construction of new condo in the Toronto market will slow down and prices will increase year to year but not at a rapid pace as the last few years. I'm expecting a busy real estate season in the first and second quarter before cooling down. Food for your thoughts.


Victor in Vaughan
said
0 0

Every year since 2007 the media outlets print a story like this supported by very good sources to justify the dreary prediction. I liken it to hearing a long term weather report.


Working Victoria BC
said
0 0

This is a list we don't want to be on the top of ........ the rest of the world went through a collapse of the Real Estate Bubble while Canada kept drinking the Kool-Aid. CMHC along with Canada's Big Banks and the Canadian Real Estate Association kept on telling us how wonderful we are and they were and most people believed it. If you follow the reasons for the big price increases and decreases or look at trends over decades it's plain to see that we have to fall back in line with reality and the rest of North America ........... about a 30.0% or more decrease.CMHC who insures all these high ratio mortgages against default is now just a propaganda agency ...... they and the Federal Government knows that they can't afford to stop publishing these propaganda numbers because of the huge losses they will take and which will eventually end up added to the National Debt.Case Schiller the largest USA Real Estate Tracking Agency states that prices are not depressed they are adjusted back to a normal with some minor up or down "Regional Anomalies". If anyone thinks that prices will go back to 2006-2008 levels they are wrong and cannot support this increases with any economic numbers.


Marc
said
0 0

Wow, finally there seems to be a bit of honesty in reporting house prices. I live in unaffordable Vancouver area, and think to pay 1/2 million for a small lot with a shack on the land is the epitome of what a bubble looks like. If CTV wished to do some reporting, have a jounalist go door to door and ask homeowners if they could afford to buy their current home at todays current prices. I would be surprised if 4 out of 5 could/would actually consider it.


Greg
said
0 0

I hope the prices do drop at least 15%. That way the homes would actually be selling for what they are worth. The prices now are stupid.


mike
said
0 0

Let it cool.... and drop down!


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