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The Bank of Canada is seen in Ottawa, on Tuesday July 19, 2011. (Adrian Wyld / THE CANADIAN PRESS) Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney discusses the Canadian economy during a press conference in Ottawa, Wednesday, Oct. 20, 2010.

Central bank holds key interest rate at 1 per cent

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CTV News Channel: Mercedes Stephenson reports
CTV's Mercedes Stephenson says experts are predicting that Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney could change interest rates as early as this Fall.

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The Bank of Canada is seen in Ottawa, on Tuesday July 19, 2011. (Adrian Wyld / THE CANADIAN PRESS) Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney discusses the Canadian economy during a press conference in Ottawa, Wednesday, Oct. 20, 2010.

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The Bank of Canada is seen in Ottawa, on Tuesday July 19, 2011. (Adrian Wyld / THE CANADIAN PRESS)

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Date: Tue. Jul. 19 2011 5:02 PM ET

The Bank of Canada declined to raise its key overnight interest rate Tuesday, but there are hints that a rate hike could come sooner than analysts have predicted.

The overnight target rate has remained steady at one per cent since it was last raised in September 2010.

BNN's Michael Kane said the bank didn't give any signs to the financial world Tuesday that the rate would be changing any time soon.

"The majority of people who are talking to us on Bay Street are saying it's going to be 2012," Kane told CTV News Channel on Tuesday morning, just after the central bank announced its rate decision.

"Maybe right at the end of this year, but we're seeing nothing that would say clearly that would be the case."

Speculation that the bank could hike rates before next year provided a boost to the loonie, which was up 0.87 of a cent to 105.16 cents US in afternoon trading.

The bank said future changes to the overnight rate will depend on how the economy fares, as the central bank tries to keep inflation in check.

"To the extent that the expansion continues and the current material excess supply in the economy is gradually absorbed, some of the considerable monetary policy stimulus currently in place will be withdrawn, consistent with achieving the 2 per cent inflation target," the bank said Tuesday.

"Such reduction would need to be carefully considered."

The central bank believes that the economy is on track to return to full capacity in 2012, with the expectation that growth will accelerate in the second half of this year.

Current bank projections see the economy expanding by 2.8 per cent in 2011, 2.6 per cent next year and 2.1 per cent the year after that.

Looking south of the border, the central bank believes that U.S. economy is being dragged down by "a consolidation of household balance sheets and slow growth in employment."

Growth has been better in Europe, though the bank says ongoing austerity measures in some counties will limit economic expansion.

"The U.S. economy has grown at a slower pace than expected and continues to be restrained by the consolidation of household balance sheets and slow growth in employment," the bank said.

"While growth in core Europe has been stronger than expected, necessary fiscal austerity measures in a number of countries will restrain growth over the projection horizon."

In Asia, the bank sees a continuing lag in the Japanese economy that is linked to the disasters the country suffered in March, while growth in China and other emerging-market economies "remains very strong."

CIBC World Markets chief economist Avery Shenfeld said the central bank will likely wait to ensure that its economic growth predictions are on target before moving toward a rate hike.

"The key is the Bank of Canada has to see evidence that its projection for a re-acceleration in economic growth is actually taking place," Shenfeld told The Canadian Press.

"The other issue is whether or not the Europeans will have dealt with their credit issues by the time the September meeting comes in place."

Shenfeld predicts the bank will move on rates this fall. The bank's next rate announcement is scheduled for Sept. 7.

The central bank's take on the Canadian economy will be revealed Wednesday, when it releases its next monetary policy report.

With files from The Canadian Press

Comments are now closed for this story

frazzlefrut
said
0 0

@Brian Johnson
Most accounts in Canada are checking accounts. As such the banks make lots of money on our banking fees and transaction fees. The money from our savings accounts is supplementary income for them now which is why we have such crappy rates on them.
Even Tax Free savings accounts have marginal rates.


Joe Spumolio
said
0 0

We can't have it both ways. Canada needs to cut social spending. The greatest burden our economy faces is CPP. This social program needs to be phased out over the next 10-15 years. The unfunded portion of CPP will balloon in the next 20 years and will bankrupt the program forcing the government to keep pumping money into this black hole. Countries with cradle to grave social programs are now experiencing a strong punch in the face from economic reality. Want our national debt to shrink? Then be prepared to lose most social spending. Want interest rates to go up? Then go to university and earn an economics degree because you're woefully uninformed.


Red X
said
0 0

Dearest MikeW; the fiscal conservatives have a majority & passed a budget with a $29,000,000,000.00 plus Deficit. They make policy and budget decisions in CANADA! How did W's tax cuts for the rich turn out for the US ?

Stu
said
0 0

It's a good thing it's not going up this government has ballooned our national debit to 562 billion dollars we pay 84 million per day in interest on this debt. Harper and crew have created the largest national debit in history.


Richard
said
0 0

... the economists are terrified that any significant change could trigger a collapse of the housing market... and it likely would. Economists own houses too and for most people home ownership is their hedge against inflation and the key to a secure retirement.

Mess with that... collapse the housing market wiping hundreds of thousands off the value of homes and the Cons would be in deep trouble

The BOC is very much a political entity and and as such so are their rate decisions.



Duke
said
0 0

Why should I live within my means when Harper is borrowing and spending like a liberal? Cut government, cut my taxes. Cut my taxes, cut my taxes. I don't care how many people get laid off. It's all about me.


Red X
said
0 0

Hey Debt; given it is now Republican vs Republican in the House. The US will have to print more money! I see Flaherty wants to print more "plastic" money. This August sell everything before the September Run on Banks...


Jeff H.
said
0 0

@ Steve T You want to outsmart your friends. Stop saving your money and buy some real estate. They'll be stuck with their frivolous crap and you'll be on your way to building wealth. Afterall, the interest rates permit!


Patience
said
0 0

Wow, the economists are just pouring out here today. Of course a bank offers a low rate on savings (buy low) and lend at a higher rate (sell high). They are in business to make money. People speak as if the Banks should be giving them some kind of break. You should live within your means and depend less on banks. Wait till you have the cash saved up to buy rather than credit carding it or using a credit line, etc. All good things come to those who wait.


MikeW
said
0 0

@Redx And you don't think the bleak outlook in the U.S. and Europe has anything to do with the lack of upward movement on the TSX. Has nothing to do with the conservatives, Libs or NDP Nice try though


Debt free 2003
said
0 0

Thats crazy RATE did not go up by quarter point it should of gone up by that much rather then by waiting 6 months and then raising it by half a pointCanada and USA cannot hold rates next to nothing including savings account rates if they continue to do so , then only one thing can happen pull all you saving money out and put it in off shore banks in which they pay you 5 per cent or more on savings. Canada and USA are the only 2 that are giving free money all other countrys rates are over 3per cent on rates. It is time banks gave to those that save ietherwise what is the point of having money in banks when they dont give you anything in return.


Brian Johnson
said
0 0

Our government is no smarter than the USA, they have allowed the banks to increase rates on mortgages and loans but have not said anything about the rates for savings, without which the banks would have no cash to fund!!! I predict Canada is heading for the same disaster that the USA and Europe have gone through.


Mike
said
0 0

@ Dayton The variable rate mortgages which are based on the BoC's overnight rate stay the same. (A bank's prime rate is usually about 2% higher than the BoC's overnight rate, then your variable rate is tied to that)Fixed rate mortgages are based on bond yields. Bond yields have been going up slowly, so therefore fixed-rate mortgages are going up.


Ian Ottawa
said
0 0

And the rich get richer. Every year the profits soar yet as a bank user we see nothing. As charge card rates are at a criminal level the interest rate remains unchanged. As one of the lucky people that pays my card off instantly I do worry about others that live day to day and end up in financial crisis and plead bankruptcy.


Red X
said
0 0

The Cdn Economy is not doing so well under Carney OR a "strong stable Conservative majority." Even the TSX is not as high as it was on the May 2 Election Day...


Steve T
said
0 0

Yet another slap in the face for those of us who save, and don't pile on the debt. Perhaps I should just give up, and rack up a huge debt buying all sorts of frivolous crap. Many of my friends do it, and the system seems to keep rewarding them with near-zero interest rates.


Dayton
said
0 0

Interesting how the rates amongst the big 4 are slowly creeping upward along with huge profits. Someone should take them to task on the matter. Can't tell me there's no collusion amongst them.


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