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BoC should raise interest rates to curb inflation: OECD

Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney delivers a speech to the Canadian Club of Ottawa in Ottawa on Monday, May 16, 2011. THE CANADIAN PRESS / Sean Kilpatrick Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney delivers a speech to the Canadian Club of Ottawa in Ottawa on Monday, May 16, 2011. (Sean Kilpatrick / THE CANADIAN PRESS) Mark Carney, the Bank of Canada governor, speaks at a press conference in Ottawa, Wednesday, Jan. 19, 2011.
Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney delivers a speech to the Canadian Club of Ottawa in Ottawa on Monday, May 16, 2011. THE CANADIAN PRESS / Sean Kilpatrick

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Higher interest rates will not decrease the price of gas, the main contributor of our higher inflation rate

Hank

BoC should raise interest rates to curb inflation: OECD

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BoC should raise interest rates to curb inflation: OECD

Date: Wednesday May. 25, 2011 9:08 AM ET

The Bank of Canada should raise lending rates in order to curb creeping inflation, says a new report from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development.

The Paris-based OECD released its global Economic Outlook on Wednesday.

"Monetary policy is currently very accommodative, and short-term inflation expectations appear to be inching upwards," the report states. "The Bank of Canada should soon resume tightening at a moderate pace."

Peter Jarrett, a senior economist with the OECD who oversees Canada and six other countries, said the organization is recommending the Bank of Canada increase interest rates by 25 basis points within the next quarter.

"There has been a period now for some months where they haven't raised rates at several meetings, and we think the circumstances are in place where they can continue on their path back to a normal policy rate which is still quite a bit higher than where they are now," Jarrett told CTV.ca from Paris.

Jarrett said the sooner the increase happens the better, but he doesn't expect it to take place until July.

The report's economic forecast summary for Canada says the economy "rebounded vigorously" over the winter due to strong external demand and healthy investment levels as outsiders looked to invest in the relative stability of the Canadian economy.

But that growth is expected to "moderate somewhat" over the near term due to economic fallout from the Japanese earthquake and tsunami, reduced spending by debt-ridden households and softening in the housing market.

However, the downward trend will be followed by a period of growth as unemployment recedes and the global economy emerges from the aftermath of the recession, the report predicts.

"Rising corporate profits and improving credit conditions should buttress robust business capital spending as a key driver of growth," the report states.

The OECD also warns that Canada needs to keep an eye on debt, both on a federal and provincial level.

"Federal and provincial governments should implement consolidation plans, largely through expenditure restraint, to reduce structural deficits and restore public-debt sustainability," the report states.

Jarrett said Canada's debt issues are much less worrisome than those of the U.S. and he called the report "cautionary and optimistic."

He said the federal government is on track to return to balanced budgets by the 2014 or 2015 fiscal year, as outlined by Finance Minister Jim Flaherty.

"We are confident that assuming there is no relapse into global recession that they can meet that goal," said Jarrett, who is Canadian.

However he said some provinces, such as Ontario and some in the Atlantic region, must closely monitor their debt levels and consider short-term belt-tightening in order to avoid long-term pain.

Jarrett said there are major challenges ahead for the Canadian economy as well as the world economy -- but with careful fiscal planning and restraint, both should have little trouble riding out the storm.

"There is a series of headwinds as we would put it that the global economy is going to have to endure in the coming 18 months. We think it can endure those headwinds and still perform reasonably well."

OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurría said those headwinds include Japan's disaster recovery, U.S. economic fragility,  increases to oil and commodity prices and a stronger-than-projected slowdown in China.

The top challenge, she said, is widespread unemployment which affects more than 50 million people in the OECD area.

"This is a delicate moment for the global economy, and the crisis is not over until our economies are creating enough jobs again," Gurría said in a statement.

"There is also some concern that if downside risks reinforce each other, their cumulative impact could weaken the recovery significantly, possibly triggering stagflation in some advanced economies."

Comments are now closed for this story

Sergy
said
0 0

I don't have a mortage I can't afford, credit cards I can't pay off, or car payments I can't make. I live within my means, and I even save a bit. Frankly, I'm sick of low interest rates subsidizing people who get in over their heads. I want a decent return on my RRSP and savings, and low inflation, too. A quarter-point rise is fine by me.


Jack - AB
said
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The BOC aims for total inflation target of 2% annually but staying within 1-3% is acceptable. The last two months each had 3.3% inflation with 2.78% average from Jan 2011. May & June will likely have 3% or higher. That means interest rates could increase by 25 basis points in July. Yes, inflation is high because of higher energy/oil prices but here to stay because of investor speculation - a global issue - which accounts for most of the higher fuel pricing. We can hold off raising interest rates until October to let the economy recover some more and check inflation rate then. Also, the BOC decides what is best for Canada and the OECD should not be trying to influence our economic policies! Maybe the IMF, UN and NATO should also tell Canada what is best for us? These organizations should only observe and not advise except if they have loaned us money that we must repay back.


Gilles E, Montreal
said
0 0

We need no one telling us how to run our economy and banking strategies. Canada has great economic leadership both at the federal level and at the bank of Canada. They should learn from us and stop pointing fingers at everyone, wait a minute, that look like this guy pointing fingers at the camera, it's the end of the world Saturday May 21 2011. Just my 2 cent worth.


wayne mallet
said
0 0

What inflation are they talking about, almost the entire inflation increase they are talking about is a result of speculators creating an inflated gas/fuel prices. The Federal and Provincial governments should immediately remove the HST/GST/PST on Gasoline and replace it with a singular flat tax rate that can not be increased with a referendum on the question.


karen
said
0 0

Of course they want to raise interest rates, how else will they rob us of our over-taxed money. How about getting a handle on the gouging price of gasoline at the pumps which is what is driving up inflation rates. Fuel costs are also driving up food costs, again driving up inflation rates.


Bryn
said
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Sure, let's get another foreign organization trying to tell Canada what to do. Most of the inflation going on is gas prices, not grocery prices. To raise interest rates now would kill our growth entirely. With fuel costs rising, a raise in mortgage rates would simply shut down whatever gains we've been enjoying.Let's keep these foreigners from trying to control what Canada does.


Cafu Alberta
said
0 0

In light of the OECD recommendation, I am almost sure BoC will start raising interest rate in July again. BoC has a history of following such advice and analysts' reports. Hopefully BoC will have its own judgment and chooses to disagree with OECD this time. With high gas prices, Canada's modest inflation will not be stopped by rate increases, Canada's recovery will.


muskoka chick
said
0 0

please excuse my economic ignorance but who benefits from the rise in interest rates apart from banks and big investment companies? In my neck of the woods, ppl & businesses are struggling, the economy has not recovered as the news media portrays and most of our basic household expenses have increased exponentially, in great part b/c of the HST and rise in energy prices. To start raising interest rates will help to topple many households into the perilous pit of economic chaos and collapse.


REAL NEWS PLEASE
said
0 0

Another self fulfilling prophecy by the news media.


Bill Lee
said
0 0

Jack those interest rates. I'm tired of subsidizing deadbeats living beyond their means. I want five dollar per liter gas. It'll clear the roads of slobs.


Cymru-YYC
said
0 0

So to be clear we should raise the interest rate to curb inflation which is being created by speculators. Then hypothetically, the speculators will take "their" money and put it in savings thus causing commodity prices for example oil and gasoline to reflect true supply and demand and return to their natural price. Brilliant, the problem, the interest rate would need to be 35%!Not liking the advice, either way 95% of the population will end up paying!


NS
said
0 0

BOC need to revisit this idea. It has been proven that consumer confidence, which drives the market, is shaken with increased rates. Why not instead, raise business tax 1 %? We would still be overly competitive with all other countries in respect to business taxes.


Cynical
said
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Yet another think tank telling everyone what to do and accepting no responsibility when their recommendations turn out to be hot air. It must be nice to pull in a fat salary and have no responsibility.


boy
said
0 0

NEXT PLS - Not the solution!


Markus
said
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You all say that this is only helping the rich, however, with such low interest rates, economic theory predicts that higher inflation will follow. Its either you have really high inflation with low interest rates, making you poorer and poorer every year or you can not over live your means and not go into debt and have your money keep its value.


FA
said
0 0

Great plan to screw us again. Little dance of lower the rate, get people spending, then raise it to destroy the borrowed economy.The BoC is a joke. The only way out of this is to get rid of the private banking stronghold on our economy and politicians.


social capitalist
said
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Hey, if the ammount of obscene profits the Canadian banks make bother you, buy bank stock for your retirement portfolio. They pay dividends like clockwork, and are highly regarded world wide for their fiscal intelligence.


Kilt
said
0 0

Seems like sound advice to me. Rates have been at ridiculously low levels for far too long. Only one direction for things to go. Expect the first increase in July. A second increase before the end of the year. Of course this won't come as good news to those of you who have stretched themselves out with too much debt.


scott nova scotia
said
0 0

Canada has weathered this better then most countries, why would we listen to them? Maybe they should follow our ideas a little closer.


dave
said
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How stupid are these people. Cut the cost of the HST on essentials, and lower the cost of food and gasoline!! Then our inflation rate would be worth looking at!!


Rob Western Canadian
said
0 0

Why don't they go after the oil companies there the ones causing the inflation, what a joke!


Mark W
said
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Others have said it also; it's exceedingly high energy costs that are driving inflation.

The energy producers are cash rich; they're not the ones borrowing money. Raising interest rates will only stifle the economy and help to drive the value of the dollar up which will cost manufacturing jobs.

Don't listen to them Mr. Carney!!


Wallace
said
0 0

I think the gov't should raise interest rates - hopefully it will avoid a bigger crash later - Vancouver house prices are already probably in bubble territory


Doug
said
0 0

.The Bank of Canada has very little impact in the long term interest rates – they can only hint at things to come with a little nudge here and there. It’s the long term bond market that really sets the rates that impact you and me.


roberto
said
0 0

I beleive raising the interests rates would be the biggest mistake the boc could make!housing and consumer spending could nosedive and put the economy in a tailspin,lowering the credit rates charged by banks would be the better thing to play with in my mind!



Ross
said
0 0

Don't push the panic putton yet on labeling this as "stagflation". Past experience has shown that once you slap placard on the side of the industrial machine, the Governments, the Central Banks, and industry itself, tend to resort to protectionist means to reduce the collateral damage. Let's just take a deep breath and plan it out slowly: make the time, now. I don't want to be paying $5.25/litre for gas anytime soon!


Olivekr in Manotic
said
0 0

Great idea OECD! Perhaps you can also come up with a way to lower gas and oil prices that are actually causing inflation rather than putting it on the back's of the overburdened consumer. To think that someone is paying for this advice....get real!


Radu
said
0 0

Thank you ...but no Thank you !Last time there was an increase I think the effect were not good .Even with a .25 people start to worry and the population consume slow down.I think a bit of inflation is not that bad , and eventually who is that organization who give us advice ? Did they do better in recession . I don't think so.


True North
said
0 0

A European organization giving Canada advice on its financial policies? Where is the irony in that given the mess the European union member countries are in? We need to worry less about what the European think is best for Canada and focus on what is truly best for the Canadian economy.


uey2004
said
0 0

More money for the rich, from the pockets of those struggling to make ends meet, and keep a roof over their families heads, and food in their stomachs! Give your head a shake B.O.C.


Hank
said
0 0

Higher interest rates will not decrease the price of gas, the main contributor of our higher inflation rate


Dave in Ottawa
said
0 0

The OECD is always there with helpful advice for others to follow. They should get stuffed on this too!


Tim/Houston
said
0 0

I'm not sure how valuable the opinion of OECD is at this time. Aren't these the same geniuses whose incredible wisdom got Greece and half the rest of European nations screwed in the global economic disaster. And, oh ya, Canada came out fairly unscathed and a model for economic reform. Hmmm, maybe the world should look more to Canada and less to a bunch of theorists for sound economic wisdom.


Mike
said
0 0

So an otside organization is telling Canada how to run our economy. Well maybe they should look to Europe and other countries that cannot stay afloat, before they come calling here.They should tell the USA whom is heavily in debt to curb their spending before they try to ruin the Canadian Economy. Raising the interest rate will only put more pressure on the economy such as less spending for goods and services. It will also put more pressure on the loonie causing it to rise and our manufacturing sector to slow even more.The Banks are making excessive profits without a rate hike.They should stay out of our domestic business.


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