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Experts predict unemployment rate will stay steady

A Canadian flag flies under the Peace Tower Wednesday March 3, 2010. (THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld)
A Canadian flag flies under the Peace Tower Wednesday March 3, 2010. (THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld)

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Date: Sunday Sep. 5, 2010 8:25 AM ET

TORONTO — Canadians scouring want-ads or those nervously hoping they'll hang on to their jobs are unlikely to get much comfort from job figures in the coming months as the unemployment rate is expected to stubbornly hover around the eight per cent mark, experts predict.

As the engines of economic growth gear down -- to a mere two per cent of Gross Domestic Product in the latest quarter --Canadians should get used to seeing the number eight in headlines and feeling its effects on their finances.

Economists say the eight per cent unemployment rate will persist and cast a pallor on prospects for hiring and income levels into next year.

"The two per cent GDP growth (in the second quarter) portends that we're going to see a slower rate of job growth going forward," said Derek Burleton, deputy chief economist at TD Economics.

August jobs figures, to be released Friday by Statistics Canada, could put a small dent in the number of jobless Canadians, but it's difficult for one month to have much effect.

So far this summer job figures have been mixed, with a whopping 93,000 jobs added in June before a loss of 9,300 in July -- the first downturn in job growth since December. July's losses ratcheted the unemployment rate up 0.1 of a percentage point to eight per cent.

Nearly all of the approximately 400,000 jobs lost during the recession have been recovered after half a year of steady increases, but the unemployment rate remains about two percentage points higher than it was before the start of the 2008-09 recession.

Christopher Ragan, an economics professor at McGill University, says the number of jobs in the economy is "within spitting distance" of the pre-recession peak, during the third quarter of 2008. But slow GDP growth is not enough to knock down the unemployment rate, Ragan said in an interview.

"All you need to get unemployment rising is to get growth to slow down, so growth goes from three to 1.5 (per cent) and boom, now unemployment starts rising," he said.

"Growth is positive, but it's not yet high enough to really put a bite into the unemployment rate, so we will need more quarters of higher growth before we see significant declines in the unemployment rate."

That's because a finite number of jobs added each month are being sought after not only by those who lost their jobs in the downturn, but also by new entrants into the workforce.

The economy must grow at a faster clip than the annual growth in the labour force in order to see any downward pressure on the jobless rate.

Andrew Jackson, chief economist at the Canadian Labour Congress, says the labour force is rising by about one per cent a year, as young people and immigrants enter. But he says productivity is rising by about the same amount, meaning two per cent growth is only enough for the economy to stand still.

Jackson said he'd be surprised if the unemployment rate budges from the eight per cent mark any time soon, with growth remaining around a muted two per cent.

"I'd certainly expect to see unemployment stable or rising. We might see job growth but that might be matched by a return of people to the workforce (in August)," he said.

Jackson pointed out that while data shows the 400,000 jobs lost during the recession have largely been regained, many of those have been part-time and temporary jobs.

"There's a lot of slack in the job market above and beyond that headline unemployment number of eight per cent," he said.

Burleton also predicted a significant downturn in job growth in the coming months.

A growth rate around two per cent typically supports job growth of around 10,000 to 15,000 jobs per month, he said.

"Typically, you need to see growth of over three per cent to see a steady decline in the unemployment rate," Burleton said.

The Canadian economy was once the envy of Western nations as it emerged from the recession with the strongest growth amongst G7 countries. Economic growth during the first quarter was the strongest the country has seen in a decade.

However, the recovery has faltered in recent months as the domestic economy feels the effects of a downturn in the housing sector, which led Canada out of recession, as well as two consecutive interest rate hikes in June and July and the harmonized sales tax in Ontario and British Columbia.

Consumer confidence dipped in August for the second quarter in a row, according to the August Harris-Decima and Investor's Group index.

And Canadians are also keeping their eyes focused warily on the U.S., amid fears that it may slip into a double-dip recession, which could take Canada's economy along with it.

The unemployment rate in the U.S. is coming out of a trough reached during the recession, but remains close to 10 per cent. The American economy lost 54,000 jobs in August.

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