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Liberals debate whether to force fall election

Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff talks to supporters during a stop at the Bakerview EcoDairy in Abbotsford, B.C., on Sunday August 22, 2010. Ignatieff is on a cross-country summer tour. (THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck)
Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff talks to supporters during a stop at the Bakerview EcoDairy in Abbotsford, B.C., on Sunday August 22, 2010. Ignatieff is on a cross-country summer tour. (THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck)

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Date: Sunday Aug. 29, 2010 1:24 PM ET

BADDECK, N.S. — Michael Ignatieff has spent his summer "vacation" on a bus, travelling almost 40,000 kilometres to some 130 events in 10 provinces and two territories, pumping 11,000 hands and kissing countless babies.

Now comes the hard part: Keeping the momentum rolling once the wheels stop.

The Liberal leader will begin pondering that challenge the moment his bus pulls into its final destination Monday in picturesque Cape Breton, where he'll meet his caucus to plot strategy for the Sept. 20 resumption of Parliament.

And inevitably that means wrestling with the possibility of a fall election.

At last year's summer caucus retreat in Sudbury, Ignatieff rashly declared Prime Minister Stephen Harper's time was up -- prompting a near-caucus revolt and a freefall in Liberal support.

He's not about to repeat that mistake. He's learned to be cautious.

"We wait and see and watch what the government does," Ignatieff said in an interview when asked about the prospect of an election.

"If they're prepared to work with other parties in the House then, you know, that's fine. If not, then we'll have to take our responsibilities."

He added quickly that he's "not looking for a confrontation."

Ignatieff's studied ambiguity reflects the internal debate that's being waged within the party.

Ideally, Liberal strategists would prefer to wait until spring, giving the Harper government more time to accumulate baggage, wrestle with a weakening economy and produce a promised restraint budget packed with painful spending cuts.

Hovering at about 30 per cent in the polls, the Liberals have now narrowed the gap with the Tories to about three percentage points. That's a modest improvement over the 10-point gap that faced them last spring but still hardly an ideal springboard into an election.

Nevertheless, Liberals fear they could easily negate the fragile gains they've made over the summer if they wind up continually propping up the minority Tories through the fall, as they've done so often over the past four years. They worry that swallowing their objections to government initiatives simply to avoid an election will sap morale and reinforce the perception that the party stands for nothing.

Ignatieff acknowledged those concerns.

"The base of the party is saying things like that too. That's what I have to make the judgment about," he said.

"We will have a good, strong, aggressive strategy in the fall and we'll see what happens . . . People shouldn't underestimate me or underestimate our determination."

For now, Liberal MPs seem content to adopt a case-by-case approach to the Harper government's survival, weighing each issue and confidence vote as they arise during the fall.

As Montreal MP Marlene Jennings, the deputy House leader, put it: "If the government wants to work with us, we're prepared, but it's not going to be on any terms . . . If the government wants to pick a fight, we won't cut and run."

If Liberal spines seem a bit stiffer, that's largely a credit to Ignatieff's summer-long bus tour. It may not have vaulted Liberals into a commanding lead in the polls, but it has re-engaged grassroots Liberals, road-tested the campaign machinery and proven that Ignatieff, a 62-year-old former Harvard professor, has the stamina to conduct -- and actually enjoy -- a gruelling election campaign.

Ajax MP Mark Holland said he's never seen the party rank and file more enthusiastic.

"These are the people who are going to . . . provide the backbone of the next election campaign and they're more energized and excited than I've heard them certainly since I've been a member of Parliament," he said.

Nor has he ever seen Ignatieff more comfortable and at ease as leader. Holland shrugged off a recent poll that suggests Ignatieff remains the least popular federal leader, arguing that opposition leaders are often underestimated.

"The question is, can (Ignatieff) exceed those expectations and I think this summer tour proves he will."

Indeed, Ignatieff says he has enjoyed himself so thoroughly, he intends to continue travelling in the fall, hitting some of the places, like northern Ontario, that he missed during the summer and unveiling more planks of his eventual election platform.

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