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Shawn Thornton from the Anaheim Ducks lands a punch on Brandon Prust from the Calgary Flames. (CP / Jeff McIntosh) Zack Stortini of the Edmonton Oilers fights with Eric Goddard of the Calgary Flames during NHL hockey action in Calgary on Sept. 21, 2006. (CP / Jeff McIntosh)

NHL fighting study may be obsolete: author

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CTV News: Roger Smith on the hockey fights report
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Canada AM: Aju Fenn, Colorado College professor
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Date: Tue. Nov. 14 2006 5:34 PM ET

While a study of National Hockey League data finds teams that fight have a better chance of winning, one hockey author notes the data was drawn from the "old" NHL.

Stephen Cole, author of the Canadian Hockey Atlas, told CTV.ca on Monday that the "new," post-lockout NHL is dramatically different when compared to the five pre-lockout seasons examined by the study.

"I'd like to see this study done again in another five to seven years," he said.

Former NHLer Mike Gardner was even more skeptical, saying: "I think you could probably do a study too that a team that ate spaghetti at a pre-game meal is more likely to win than a team that eats chicken."

The statistical analysis of NHL data -- taken from the 1999-2000 season through to 2003-04 -- showed major penalties, which referees most often issue for on-ice brawls, increases the total points of the offending player's team.

"Major penalties actually help teams win hockey games," said study author Aju Fenn.

Major penalties also decreased the number of goals scored by their opponents.

The study, conducted by Fenn with a team of professors at the Department of Economics and Business at Colorado College in Colorado Springs and the School of Business at the University of Sioux Falls, compared the effect of minor and major penalties.

According to the analysis, major penalties helped win games while minor penalties lowered a team's chance of emerging victorious.

Fenn pointed out that the study did not only look at penalties.

"Some of the other factors are the things you expect -- saves, assists, minor penalties -- and in fact, our study finds that penalties and minutes have almost twice the negative impact that major penalties do on wins," he told CTV's Canada AM on Tuesday.

However, 2003-04 -- the last year of the study period -- was the last complete season before an entire year of NHL hockey was lost to a labour dispute and the game's rules were changed, Cole said.

When hockey returned for the 2005-06 season, the teams had salary caps and new rules.

The league opened up centre ice by eliminating the red line, which made it impossible to play the stifling "trap."

Referees were told to crack down on the clutching and grabbing that had slowed down the game.

"The game has gotten a lot faster and you're seeing a lot more skilled players," Bill Hutton, an Ontario minor hockey official, told CTV Newsnet.

All of a sudden, there was less room for enforcers and slow power forwards.

Cole noted the two teams that made it to the Stanley Cup finals -- the Edmonton Oilers and the Carolina Hurricanes -- were speedy teams who could also play a physical game.

However, neither team had a designated enforcer, the way the Toronto Maple Leafs once had Tie Domi, he said.

Domi retired from play this summer after the Leafs declined to pick up the option year of his contract.

Another casualty is Philadelphia Flyers general manager Bobby Clarke, who resigned recently after his team got off to a terrible start.

He captained the Flyers in the mid-1970s when they won two Stanley Cups while being known as the Broad Street Bullies.

"He couldn't adjust to the new league," Cole said.

"It'll be interesting to see between last year and this year if the number of fights are down," Hutton said.

According to the website HockeyFights.com, about 41 per cent of games had fights in the 2003-04 season. That dropped to 29 per cent in 2005-06, but is projected to be about 34 per cent this season.

The positive side of fighting

The professors calculated that for each penalty minute served, a team collected 0.08 points and decreased their opponent's scoring by 0.24 goals.

They attributed the positive effect of a major penalty to the emotional rush sparked by an energizing brawl, although Hutton doubted that theory.

"If you've been to an NHL game and you see the teams get up and start pounding on the glass, it's clearly a rallying effect and that's what gets momentum to change in a game," Fenn said.

"And that's what gets momentum to change in a game. That's our explanation for what we observed -- we're not suggesting in any way that fighting is a good thing."

Cole said if one goes back to the 1960s, Leafs coach Punch Imlach used to have designated players to go out and stir things up.

There is no doubt that classic two-on-two fights energize fans, especially in the United States, Cole said.

"I was at the game in New York when Tie Domi (then a Ranger) fought Bob Probert," he said.

At that time in the early 1990s, Domi was a relative newcomer to the league, while Probert, a Detroit Red Wing, was the most feared fighter of that time.

While Cole said he's never been to a heavyweight title fight, the energy level aroused in the in the Madison Square Garden crowd had to be comparable.

"Everyone likes it -- the fans, the players. I think everyone gets a rush off it," said Brian McGrattan of the Ottawa Senators.

However, things can go too far and you get a Todd Bertuzzi incident. Bertuzzi, formerly a Vancouver Canuck, attacked Steve Moore of the Colorado Avalanche from behind, breaking his neck (the Avalanche won that game 9-2). The attack has probably ended Moore's hockey career.

"The message we need to drive home is that penalties for such acts should be more severe so there's not a benefit, there's actually a cost to a team for doing stuff like that," said Mark Moore, Steve's brother.

There may have been even more vicious attacks in the 1950s and 1960s -- in one case, a player was given the last rites on the ice -- "but those games weren't televised with sophisticated cameras like today," Cole said. "So they can't be that way any more."

Hutton thought the NHL's marketing efforts should now focus on emerging high-skills superstars like the Pittsburgh Penguins' Sydney Crosbie and Evgeni Malkin, not fighting.

Cole suggested a follow-up study. Fenn said they are thinking about it, given the game's new rules.

"I think a follow-up study is merited especially because we've got a change in rules and an economic issue here, a new collective bargaining agreement," Fenn said.

"I'm waiting for some time to pass to collect about a couple, two or three seasons worth of data."

With a report from CTV's Roger Smith

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