Gordon Campbell admitted it the other day – the Liberals won't keep all of their MLAs in next Tuesday's B.C. election. Well, duh! The rout of 2001, where the Liberals won 77 of 79 ridings, devastating the political-left out here, is a political rarity, an alignment of the political stars that probably won't be seen again in our lifetimes, certainly not in B.C.

This time, the real question for the Liberals is how low will they sink? Can they hold the line? Are they free-falling? Will they slip below the magic number of 40, where the proud and occasionally-arrogant governing party will find itself in the political wilderness known as "Opposition."

At one point during this two-month campaign (one month official, one month on the government payroll thanks to the B.C. fixed-date election rules) the Liberals looked incredibly strong. The economy was going great, the NDP leader untested and – despite the voters' dislike of the premier – there were not enough reasons to get rid of him.

Starting with all the aces and all the government resources, including a budget they didn't bother to pass and tonnes of handouts, the Liberals frittered away good-will and by last week had swing voters wondering who was really governing the province.

Not helping the Liberals was the 'Where's Gordo?' campaign – where the premier hid out in his campaign bus or at friendly Liberal committee rooms, surrounded by fawning supporters. It's still going on. A recent newscast showed Campbell in the Peace River country, glad-handing with a handful of Liberal supporters and giving a speech to a "safe" crowd.

But this "has-anyone-seen-the-premier" campaign has only reminded the voters that this man has run the province for the last four years without listening to them. Sell B.C. Rail? Never! Well, we're only leasing the tracks for 999 years. Cut health care? Cut seniors services? Over-ride bargaining rights? Well, it's for your good.

The voters' view of Gordo wasn't helped by his lacklustre performance during the televised leaders' debate, while NDP leader Carole James proved herself as a possible premier.

James successes quickly prompted a shift in the Liberal campaign strategy which launched a nasty, dirty-tricks attack on the NDP.

There were the hecklers at James' rallies – at least her party openly admitted where she would be campaigning – and last weekend two truckers boxed in the NDP campaign bus, as it headed up Vancouver Island. Both big rigs carried signs decrying the NDP. One proclaimed that the owner was ready to move to Alberta if the NDP were elected.

Considering the sign was misspelled many British Columbians would be forgiven in wishing the illiterate trucker a quick exit. Or they might at least wonder if the Liberal's tinkering with the province's education system had affected his spelling skills.

During a radio debate earlier this week, where Campbell performed better, a Vancouver Sun reporter with acute hearing recognized the voice of one of the callers. The man claimed to be a single parent and attacked Carole James. Well, it turns out he was really a senior Liberal party official, who doesn't have any kids.

In another gaffe the Liberal candidate in Williams Lake berated a young woman who dared to ask how she was going to care for her aging mother, considering the cuts to senior's services inflicted by the Liberals. Now this was supposed to be a friendly crowd. After all, in this very Liberal riding the rally was sponsored by their junior league team – the local Chamber of Commerce.

But, as reported in the Williams Lake Tribune, Liberal Walter Cobb condemned the 19-year-old nursing student: "A lot of work has been done to look after the seniors in our community," Cobb replied. "It is unfortunate that you should be so young and have the attitude you have. I'd feel bad having somebody like you looking after my mother."

Now, Cariboo North, the riding where all this happened is about as safe a Liberal territory as you can find – the new party of the right having replaced the Social Credit who held it by divine right before them. But the rest of that all-candidates rally the audience booed the Liberal incumbents and cheered the NDP.

Not to be outdone, the premier turned on the hard heart and the scaremongering this week, claiming that voting for the NDP would bring the old gang that mismanaged the provinces' economy back to Victoria.

Campbell's "the-reds-are-at-the-gates" attacks are reminiscent of Social Credit premier W.A.C. Bennett's tirades during his years in office. I remember a speech he gave in New Westminster back in 1969, when he declared that a vote for the NDP was a vote for "the New Depression Party." The voters bought it and gave 'Wacky' his final mandate.

Three years later, in 1972, when Bennett again trotted out the NDP-red-baiting, Dave Barrett and his future Attorney-General, Alex Macdonald, went to B.C. Supreme Court and filed a libel suit against Bennett – shutting him up for the duration of the campaign. And the NDP were elected with their first majority government.

This brings us back to Campbell's admission that he won't repeat the amazing win of 2001. That Liberals won that vote with roughly 60 per cent of the popular vote. But the voters four years ago had whipped themselves into an anti-NDP frenzy: angered by obfuscating budgets and a premier under RCMP investigation. It didn't matter that Glen Clark was innocent. Even long-time socialists sat on their hands rather than vote. The NDP's popular vote fell to only 16 per cent - about half of its traditional number.

This time, the NDP's fortunes have reversed themselves. The most recent poll shows NDP support among decided voters at around 40 per cent and growing. The Liberals have slipped to 45 per cent. But what these numbers don't explain is that the NDP need less of that popular vote to win the province.

That's because the New Democrats win ridings by smaller, close results. And that adds up to fewer votes overall, less overall popular vote, compared to the Liberals, who have huge majorities in many of the ridings they win. Places where voters wouldn't want their daughters to date a socialist, much less vote for one.

So, unless the "Gordon-the-nasty" campaign takes hold and he convinces B.C. voters, like W.A.C. Bennett many years before him, that the hordes are at the gates, Campbell can kiss goodbye many currently-Liberal ridings and many of his MLAs.

Say good-bye to many of Vancouver Island's 13 ridings.

Ridings up on the North Coast -- home to fishermen in Prince Rupert and natives (the Haida on the Queen Charlottes and the Nishgaa in the Naas Valley, both angered by Campbell's anti-treaty referendum) –- will likely go socialist.

The Kootenays, in the southeast, nestled next to the U.S. border and Alberta, – with their strong labour traditions – will once again find comfort in the NDP's New Jerusalem.

On the Eastside of Vancouver, in the working class ridings of Burnaby, the top end of Burrard Inlet and parts of suburban Surrey – all are all tilting towards the NDP.

This late in the campaign, it's probably not enough to add up to an NDP government, but it does add up to a very large opposition – and for Gordon Campbell, a very scary end of campaign and potentially a very embarrassing night when the votes are counted.

One analysis, by the online newspaper The Tyee finds that the NDP could win as many as 33 seats, the Liberals as few as 46 seats. And that's not figuring in the last days of the campaign.

That's why Gordon Campbell has turned nasty. Nasty to both Carole James and the NDP. Hating the NDP comes naturally to those in the anybody-but-NDP party. After all, that's how politics have been played out here for more than half a century.

But at the same time nice. Nice to Adriane Carr, the Green Party leader. Campbell and his strategists hope the Greens will split the vote – allowing the Liberals to capture a few seats that would probably go NDP. An analysis of the 2001 results, by CTV Elections, found seven ridings that would have gone NDP if the Greens had not siphoned off votes. It was the difference between starving in the wilderness as lonely MLAs or having Official Opposition status.

The premier hopes for a repeat. And cozying up to the Greens may be the right strategy – if voters buy it. On the other hand, mean-Gordo may turn them off. May remind them of the grim-reaper he's been for many of the past four years. In that case voters may not believe him. And the Greens may not want that kind of support.

But that's the way the game is played out here. The view may be gorgeous. The sea waters azure blue. The mountains stark green against the sky. But it all pales in comparison to the blood sport called B.C. politics.

Anton Koschany is Senior Producer of CTV W-FIVE. He also runs the network's Election Results team. Raised in Vancouver he began his journalism career there. He has covered nine B.C. premiers and has buried one.