OTTAWA — One week after Ottawa revealed an embarrassment of riches with a surprise surplus of $9.1 billion, private-sector economists are saying that's only the beginning.

The federal government is on track to record a surplus of $8 billion in the current fiscal year -- double the $4 billion anticipated by Finance Minister Ralph Goodale, Toronto Dominion Bank economists said Tuesday.

And over the next five years, total surpluses could reach $25 billion, say chief economist Don Drummond and senior economist Derek Burleton of TD.

In a new report about the federal books, the economists say some of the economic factors that drove last year's surplus to $9.1 billion are still in play.

"Add to that the stronger than expected economic performance so far this year and the government is likely to have an extra $20 (billion) to $25 billion in its till over the next six years to be directed towards spending increases, tax cuts or debt reduction,'' they say.

That begins with $8 billion in fiscal 2004-05, which ends next March 31, 2005; $6.1 billion in 2005-06; $6 billion in 2006-07; $7.2 billion; $9.5 billion and $11.4 billion in subsequent years.

All that money won't be available for spending, the economists say.

A $3-billion rainy day fund will reduce this year's available surplus to $5 billion, while next year, the economic prudence added to the contingency reserve will deduct $4 billion.

However, with Ottawa promising to find at least $1 billion in annual savings after a review of all government programs, there should be a surplus next year of $3.1 billion.<

In fiscal 2006-07, the $6 billion would be reduced by a gradually larger rainy day fund that includes a $3-billion contingency reserve and $2 billion in economic prudence.

However, federal officials anticipate $2 billion in savings from the expenditure review program will raise the usable surplus to $3 billion.

With such large amounts available, it's time for a full, national debate on how to handle the upcoming string of surpluses, say the economists.

"It has been five years since Canadians had a broad debate on the best way to allocate emerging surpluses,'' they said.

"It is high time that we had one again.''

Critics have made similar demands in recent days.

They've complained that the Liberal government has avoided debate by deliberately allowing sizeable surpluses, which automatically go to reducing Canada's $501-billion debt.

Goodale has acknowledged that his previous forecasts of the federal surplus are probably out of date.

An updated outlook will be announced when the minister delivers a mid-year review of the federal books, likely the week of Nov. 15.