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Liberals attacked over unexpected $9.1B surplus
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CTV.ca News Staff
Date: Wed. Oct. 13 2004 11:36 PM ET
The federal government announced it had recorded a surplus of $9.1 billion in the last fiscal year -- but not everyone is celebrating the greater-than-expected coffer.
The $9.1-billion surplus for the year ended March 31 is about five times more than the $1.9 billion Finance Minister Ralph Goodale forecasted in his budget last March.
"Thanks to a resilient economy, the level of incomes and government revenues were higher than estimated in the last federal budget, illustrating that the Canadian economy successfully weathered the problems of 2003, which included BSE, SARS and the significant appreciation of the Canadian dollar," Goodale said in a news release.
He said that the $9.1 billion has been applied to reduce Canada's federal debt, bringing it to $501.5 billion at the end of 2003-04. That is down a total of $61.4 billion from its peak in 1996-97.
Goodale said that the government received a $5.1-billion boost from stronger-than expected revenues. That $5.1 billion is in addition to a $1.9-billion contingency reserve, and $2 billion in lower-than-anticipated government expenses.
Prime Minister Paul Martin explained the discrepancy between forecast and actual numbers by likening it to a game of golf.
"It's like when you've got a slice or a hook when you're playing golf,'' he told reporters in Moscow, following his six-day tour of Europe. "It takes a minute change when you hit the ball for a massive slice. And that's what happens in these numbers."
Martin insisted that it's not uncommon for countries around the world to underestimate surpluses, and overestimate deficits. Canada is no different, he said, denying there was any political motivation behind the discrepancy.
"Virtually every economist in the country will tell you how surprised they were,'' Martin said. "That's the big difference between last spring and today.''
This is the seventh consecutive annual surplus -- a first for Canada. But not everyone is happy.
Opposition on attack
Opposition politicians accused the government of financial dyslexia in the wake of new numbers showing the federal surplus last year was $9.1 billion.
"Nine-point-one billion instead of one-point-nine billion," said Gilles Duceppe during Parliament's question period on Wednesday, noting the original number forecast. "This Minister of Finance suffers from financial dyslexia."
Duceppe and another Bloc Quebecois MP used the news to push a key part of the Bloc's agenda: addressing what it sees as the fiscal imbalance between Ottawa and the provinces.
NDP leader Jack Layton asked whether the government would leave it up to members of Parliament to decide how to spend the surplus.
Goodale responded by pointing out the number of ways in which the federal government supported the provinces -- including $41 billion for the recent health care accord.
Conservative Leader Stephen Harper said the bigger-than-forecast surplus proves the Liberals are lying to Canadians.
This is not the first time the Liberals have faced allegations of deliberately low-balling the surplus.
Goodale announced last month the appointment of Bank of Montreal economist Tim O'Neill to investigate Ottawa's economic and fiscal forecasting. His investigation will be completed early next year.
"We want to review our way of doing the forecast to make sure we are not only doing it by the best Canadian standards, but by the best international standards," Goodale told reporters.
Bringing down the GDP
In last spring's budget, the Liberals said they wanted to reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio from 42 to 25 per cent over 10 years.
The federal debt-to-GDP (gross domestic product) ratio now stands at 41.1 per cent, down from its peak of 68.4 per cent in 1995-96.
According to Martin, all those numbers could add up to adjustments in spending priorities for next year.
Defence, child care and cities could all be in line for extra cash, Martin said. "There are obviously a number of social priorities which the government envisages new spending on.''
The finance minister believes the higher revenues should carry forward into next year. With debt charges decreasing, and spending remaining low, federal revenues are expected to keep pace next year.
Despite tax reductions, revenues "rose faster than the growth levels for both personal incomes and corporate profits, as measured by Statistics Canada," the finance department said.
Set against the backdrop of a massive public sector strike -- which currently involves about 115,000 federal government employees -- news of the so-called "super surplus" is sure to give Public Service Alliance of Canada more ammunition for their ongoing contract talks.
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