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War may start within the week, analysts say
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CTV.ca News Staff
Date: Mon. Feb. 10 2003 7:38 AM ET
Washington's war cry means Baghdad's date with destiny could be decided on Valentine's Day. While the White House has yet to set a firm date, analysts say war is likely to break out very soon.
U.S. President George Bush has yet to back off his end game, despite growing opposition to war against Iraq in the international community. CTV's Kathy Tomlinson says there are a number of reasons why Washington may declare war within week, or even days.
Friday, Feb. 14 -- or Valentine's Day -- is viewed as a critical day, since that is when the UN's chief weapons inspector Hans Blix is set to deliver his next report to the UN Security Council.
The Security Council could sanction military action; otherwise, the U.S. has said it's willing to act alone and Washington is anxious to move when the weather favours an attack.
Fears of a chemical or biological attack mean that troops are expected to wear heavy protective gear. In turn, the approaching spring and desert heat can make the gear too hot to bear.
"It's obviously better...in the winter months," Ret. Major Gen. William Nash said.
Other factors include the cycle of the moon. The sky will be the darkest at the beginning of March and would provide ideal cover to the stealth bombers that would likely lead the air attack.
The U.S. military also wants to make their move before April, when sandstorms could become a factor. U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld recently predicted that a possible war against Iraq would be relatively short.
So far, more than 100,000 American troops have moved into the Persian Gulf region. That number is expected to climb to 150,000 within a week and is considered enough to launch the first stage of an invasion.
Many of the soldiers are stationed in Kuwait which was liberated by the U.S. during the 1991 Gulf War. Despite pro-U.S. sentiment in Kuwait, terrorists have carried out three attacks against the U.S. military in recent weeks.
In addition to safety, Tomlinson said Washington is concerned about the cost of the operation.
"If the U.S. decides to go alone, guess who pays -- the U.S. taxpayer," Charles Pena of the Washington-based CATO Institute said.
Tomlinson said the drum beat in Washington remains constant even though UN weapons inspectors are reporting progress. Over the weekend, members of the Bush administration continued to repeat the president's message.
"It should be weeks, not months before the United Nations Security Council and the world decides it will resolve this situation," U.S. National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice told American television Sunday.
Meanwhile, one of the U.S. Army's key fighting forces, the 101st Airborne Division, and the USS Kitty Hawk, were deployed to the Persian Gulf last week.
The majority of Americans say they believe war with Iraq is inevitable. In a survey conducted by CNN and Time magazine, 75 per cent said they believed their country would take military action against Iraq.
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