OTTAWA — It seems an odd question for the party that has dominated federal politics for a decade, but it's the question on the minds of Liberals these days: what if the governing party held a leadership convention and nobody cared?

The surprise decision by Industry Minister Allan Rock to pull out of the campaign this week is threatening to turn the 10 months until the November convention into a triumphal procession for Paul Martin rather than a race.

Deputy Prime Minister John Manley insists he's still going to run, and Heritage Minister Sheila Copps appears ready to give it a try as well.

Rock maintained, even as he threw in the towel, that others may have better luck than him. Privately, however, the industry minister's organizers offered a different assessment.

"Paul Martin's got a lock on this," said one. "He is a very popular politician, and he will be the next prime minister."

Martin has avoided the temptation to gloat -- insisting he still expects a "vigorous" contest -- and some of his senior strategists are clearly uneasy about being pictured as sure bets so far from the finish line.

"This is an unprecedented length of time for a leadership race," said a longtime adviser to the former finance minister.

"Nobody supporting Paul Martin -- or Paul Martin himself -- should take anything for granted. That would be very foolish, and very presumptuous."

Nevertheless, the growing perception that the race is over before it has even officially begun could turn Jean Chretien's final months in office into a historical footnote, as the country impatiently awaits the annointing of his successor.

Chretien, understandably, was quick to dismiss any suggestion that there's nothing left for him to do but while away the time until retirement.

The day after Rock pulled out, the prime minister held a news conference to lay out his "very busy agenda" for the coming months, starting with a federal-provincial conference on health-care renewal in early February and a federal budget shortly after that.

Chretien has often said, since he took power in 1993, that he wanted to leave a healthy party when he left -- and that one measure of that health would be the number of candidates vying to succeed him.

He sounded regretful, but resigned, as the numbers dwindled rather than grew.

"I think that if we have a good debate it's good for the party," he said. "But it's up to the candidates to decide. ... There's nothing I can do."

About one thing he was adamant: even if it appears Martin is headed for a coronation, Chretien won't speed up the timetable that calls for him to hand over power in February 2004.

"Absolutely not. My decision was made a long time ago, it's been accepted by all the candidates. Everybody agreed."

Most of those close to the prime minister take him at his word, but some are not so sure.

A longtime Chretien loyalist, speaking on condition of anonymity, pointed to the pre-Christmas parliamentary session, when Martin's backbench supporters made life miserable for the prime minister and openly demanded that he set an earlier departure date.

"It depends how ugly it gets between now and November," said this source. "I think he could still pull the pin early."

Still, others say there's virtually no chance Chretien would call it quits before the convention, but he might be persuaded to step down then, rather than hang around until the following February.

For that to happen, the Martin camp would likely have to back off and permit him a graceful exit -- not make it look like he's getting the boot.

"They should consider being respectful and nice to the prime minister for once," said a party veteran. "They might be pleasantly surprised by the results."

Organizers for Manley, meanwhile, are enjoying the media spotlight that has been shining on them since Rock's departure. They are stepping up their fundraising efforts and trolling for recruits among the industry minister's former organizers.

Manley, who doubles as finance minister, won't officially announce his candidacy for the leadership until after the delivers his budget in the third or fourth week of February.

Even then, he won't make his move right away. It will take a few weeks to put together a campaign platform and get all the organizational pieces in place, said Doug Kirkpatrick, one of Manley's senior advisers.

In the interim, the Friends of John Manley, a kind of exploratory committee that has already started work, plans to rent space, hire staff and open a campaign office before the end of January.

"John has to spend a lot of time right now preparing the budget," said Kirkpatrick. "But once you start campaigning you've got to come out of the blocks running. We'll be there."

Skeptics point out that Rock started organizing earlier, had raised more money and had lined up more support across the country.

He was widely perceived as running second to Martin but could never catch up -- raising the obvious question of how anybody else could hope to do so.

Manley strategists retort that Rock quit because he'd hit his ceiling, and their man has greater growth potential. They also suggest he's less scared of Martin.

"The Martin people are trying to run everybody out of the race and turn it into just a policy convention in November," said one organizer. "They succeeded with Allan Rock. They won't succeed with John Manley."

Copps, who ran a distant third behind Chretien and Martin in the last leadership contest in 1990, is given little chance of doing better this time.

Many Liberals wonder why she would even bother -- but not those who know her well. They say she just can't get politics out of her blood and wouldn't know what to do with herself if she didn't join the fray

"You've got to understand that Sheila never thinks she can't win," said one longtime supporter.

With Rock out of it, Copps is likely to be the sole serious candidate from the left wing of the party. She is also likely to be the only woman -- unless Health Minister Anne McLellan, who has been pondering her own long-shot chances, decides to mount a campaign.

Copps started staking out her ground within days of Rock's withdrawal, delivering a campaign-style speech in Vancouver in which she promised to bring more women into politics and to legalize same-sex marriage.

McLellan, by contrast, is a fiscal conservative cut from the same centre-right cloth Martin -- and for that matter Manley. There may be little to choose in policy terms among any of them.

Toronto backbencher Dennis Mills could add some ginger to the race if he decides to run, but he is hardly seen as a serious contender.

Justice Minister Martin Cauchon may come under pressure to jump in, if only to ensure the presence of a francophone voice in the contest.

But Martin, a transplanted Ontarian who made his business career in Montreal before entering politics, is vastly popular in his adopted home. That leaves little chance for Cauchon to build a power base in Quebec.

The only other cabinet member known to be currently weighing his chances is natural Resources Minister Herb Dhaliwal, who could run as a B.C. favourite son. But he, like Cauchon, is up against a formidable Martin organization in his native province.