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Job gains surprise economists, boost dollar
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CTV.ca News Staff
Date: Fri. Feb. 9 2007 11:02 PM ET
Statistics Canada stunned economists Friday when it released a report saying the economy created almost 90,000 jobs last month, far surpassing analyst expectations.
Ubisoft's Montreal studio hopes to hire hundreds of Canadians, as it expands into making short films related to its video games -- a plan requiring millions of dollars and the help of both Ottawa and the Quebec government.
"We're doing it basically because this is innovation," said Raymond Bachard, Quebec's minister of economic development.
"It's 1,000 jobs that are going to be created."
When the company first formed in 1997, it hoped to create 800 jobs in the next 10 years. So far, it's already doubled that number.
Statistics Canada said 89,000 jobs were created last month. Analysts had expected only 13,000 positions would be created, as 32,000 new jobs became available in British Columbia and 24,000 in Alberta.
The boom built on an upward trend that started last fall and continued into December, a month which reported 62,000 new positions.
But some economists expressed skepticism over the report, including Finance Minister Jim Flaherty, who spoke to reporters in Rome.
"I have always taken monthly figures with a grain of salt," he said.
"They don't necessarily dictate trends."
JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s Ted Carmichael was another market-watcher who warned against drawing conclusions.
Carmichael said he's always been skeptical of the "veracity" of month-to-month changes in StatsCan's Labour Force Survey.
"This survey of 45,000 households tends to yield volatile movements in employment on a month-to-month basis which partly reflects unpredictable sampling errors," Carmichael wrote in a research note Friday.
Dawn Desjardins, an economist at Royal Bank, said the employment numbers were a big surprise.
"Most analysts were looking for a slowdown in the pace of hiring and that's not what we got," Desjardins told The Canadian Press.
The government agency reported Friday that the job boom in January was fuelled by increases in British Columbia and Alberta.
Employment boom
The growth far surpassed analyst expectations that only 13,000 positions would be created as 32,000 new jobs became available in British Columbia and 24,000 in Alberta, reports Statistics Canada.
The boom built on an upward trend that started last fall and continued into December, a month which reported 62,000 new positions.
Despite the numbers, an infusion of job-seekers pushed the unemployment rate up to 6.2 per cent -- from 6.1 per cent in December.
Overall, a record 63.4 per cent of working-age Canadians held jobs in January.
Statistics Canada said the new jobs were divided equally between full-time and part-time positions. Since last October, almost two-thirds of employment jumps have been in part-time positions.
Also, most of the new jobs were created in the private sector. The fields of increase included information, recreation, professional and scientific services, hotels and restaurants and natural resources.
B.C.'s jobs were mostly in the service sector, fuelled by the vibrant skiing industry. Alberta's jobs were mostly full-time positions but the provinces 3.3 per cent unemployment rate remained unchanged because of an influx of workers.
Ontario's jobless rate jumped to 6.4 per cent from 6.1 per cent in December, fueled by an estimated 32,000 additional labour force participants. Quebec saw a rise in their overall rate, which was 7.7 per cent.
Since January 2005, employment rates among off-reserve Aboriginal people living in Alberta and B.C. has seen a dramatic increase. Since January 2006, employment growth among adult women across Canada has been strong, gaining 3.4 per cent.
Job strength boosts dollar
News that 89,000 Canadians found work in January pushed the dollar up almost half a cent against its U.S. counterpart.
The dollar sailed past 85.03 cents US on the strength of the employment numbers and also on the forecasts that interest-rate cuts will be delayed.
Market-watchers predicted the data may persuade the Bank of Canada to hold off on the interest cuts many had expected in the spring.
The Bank of Canada is likely to wait and see how the economy plays out, Desjardins said.
"We think they're going to stay on hold for quite some time," she told CP.
Economist David Tulk of TD Bank, however, suggested that this job momentum could not last for long.
"Look for some correction in the months to come before job creation returns to a more trend-like pace over the course of the year,'' he told the wire agency.
With a report by CTV Montreal's Maya Johnson and files from The Canadian Press
January unemployment figures (previous month in brackets):
- Unemployment rate -- 6.2 per cent (6.1)
- Number unemployed -- 1,096,500 (1,075,300)
- Number working -- 16,729,300 (16,640,400)
- Youth (15-24 years) unemployment -- 11.7 per cent (11.2)
- Men (25 plus) unemployment -- 5.3 per cent (5.3)
- Women (25 plus) unemployment -- 4.9 per cent (5.9)
Provincial unemployment rates (previous month in brackets):
- Newfoundland 15.4 (13.8)
- Prince Edward Island 10.7 (12.4)
- Nova Scotia 7.8 (7.3)
- New Brunswick 8.1 (8.5)
- Quebec 7.7 (7.5)
- Ontario 6.4 (6.1)
- Manitoba 4.6 (4.1)
- Saskatchewan 4.1 (4.0)
- Alberta 3.3 (3.3)
- British Columbia 4.3 (5.2)
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This is just wrong but if I were to send something to the politicians I would have sent the brain!
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