TORONTO — Who knew what and when, just before Finance Minister Ralph Goodale announced that income trusts would remain free of corporate tax and that dividend taxes would be cut?

It was common knowledge that a statement was imminent _ and nobody expected Goodale to do anything unpopular ahead of an election.

So an RCMP probe into possible insider leaks could turn out to be, as one Bay Street veteran sees it, "a wild goose chase.''

Goodale made his announcement on Nov. 23 after the close of a stock-market session marked by unusual trading of many income trusts and dividend-paying shares.

That morning's newspapers had reported his promise the previous day to give the trusts issue "the greatest degree of certainty that's possible'' before the defeat of the Liberal minority government in a non-confidence vote set for three business days later.

The minister's move cut short a consultation he had launched in September into the tax treatment of trusts, a process that had been intended to go on until the end of the year.

A story on an inside business page of the Globe and Mail of Nov. 23 called this "a sudden change of timing that experts believe could pave the way for a politically popular dividend tax cut.''

The Mounties, who on Wednesday disclosed a criminal investigation into complaints by opposition politicians of possible insider trading, "are blowing in the wind, quite frankly,'' Ross Healy, president of Strategic Analysis Corp., said Thursday.

"They admitted themselves that they don't have anything and I am baffled as to what they think they're going to get,'' Healy said.

"This just strikes me as being a wild goose chase... I don't think there's anything there to find.''

Tom Caldwell, chairman of Caldwell Securities Ltd., was similarly unconvinced the RCMP will get their man.

"My gut feel is that by the time the smoke clears and a lot of money's wasted, I don't think you're going to find any clear villains,'' said Caldwell.

He added that his own firm had increased its income-trust positions in the weeks before Goodale's announcement, on the assumption that the sector's uncertainty would be resolved in due course.

On Nov. 23, given that an announcement was being moved up to before the election campaign, "you knew it was going to be positive,'' Caldwell said.

"You can interpolate, and I'm sure a lot of traders did interpolate, from the fact that there was going to be an announcement.''

That said, Caldwell noted: "Whenever you're working on a big event and there's a time lag, there's always the possibility of leaks, conscious or unconscious,'' perhaps through casual chatter by low-level workers.

"Remember, this is emanating from Ottawa, so there are people there, maybe working on this, who might not have the wildest idea of the market impact of a misplaced statement -- this is just a hypothesis.''

Tory Leader Stephen Harper said Thursday that it's unlikely investors would have bet big money on mere speculation about the government's intentions.

"People don't usually invest that kind of money on the speculation of a government decision unless they have pretty good reason to believe it's going to occur,'' he said in Vancouver.

"And I can tell you, having been in contact myself with some market players in the days preceding that decision, that decision was not widely anticipated.''

The Ontario Securities Commission, meanwhile, refused to say what it is doing in the case, if anything.

"We routinely monitor trading and we review instances of unusual trading,'' said spokeswoman Wendy Day, but "the OSC practice is neither to confirm nor deny the existence of an investigation.''