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Chess game for all parties in a minority parliament
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Lloyd Robertson, Chief News Anchor and Senior News Editor
Date: Thu. Jul. 8 2004 5:42 PM ET
Now that we've had a chance to digest the election results and contemplate what Canadians wrought for the country's 28th Parliament, let's look to the future.
As it turns out, the Liberals won by almost losing ... and Paul Martin is still prime minister. While a majority of Canadians felt the Liberals didn't deserve to re-elected, they were not convinced Stephen Harper and his new and united Conservative Party were ready to take up the reins of government.
As a result, the people's judgment has presented both Martin and Harper with their own distinctive challenges.
Martin is in better shape, by far. The prime minister will be able tailor his policies to gather support from the Conservatives, who will not be ready to jump into an early election. Or he can look to the NDP and the Bloc Quebecois, both of whom will also be loathe to incur public wrath by forcing another national vote at a public cost of about $250 million.
The challenge for the Liberals is to determine whether the Martin supporters, who behaved brutally against some of the Chretien loyalists, have the necessary diplomatic skills to operate in the more collegial atmosphere that minority government demands. Many of us will remember the Joe Clark fiasco of 1979. His Conservatives decided to govern as though they had a majority and were defeated within seven months on a budget vote.
It will be a critical test of Martin's political savvy to see whether he can control the agenda for a sufficient period of time, nothing less than 15 months to two years, to either go the country on an issue of his choice or allow his government to be defeated on a policy that is sure to have wide public support.
For Stephen Harper, minority government chess is more complicated. He has proven skills as a first rate strategist, a quality that should serve him well this time around. Harper has to been seen as supportive of the Martin Liberals on those subjects that resonate well with Conservative voters. He will have to avoid Liberal traps, like having themselves defeated on a popular public issue and he will have to keep one eye over his shoulder to avoid being blindsided by one of his recalcitrant MPs.
Most of all, Harper needs time to mould a coherent team from the collection of former Alliance and Progressive Conservative MPs that have agreed to live together in what some have described as a shotgun marriage. By the time the next election rolls around, he and his 98 other MPs have to be seen as a credible alternative to the governing Liberals.
The NDP and the Bloc Quebecois are, of course, important players in the minority government exercise but they would need to pull a lot of support around them from Conservatives or disenchanted Liberals to defeat the government.
In the end, it's all up to Paul Martin and his team. If they can maneuver their way trough the tricky shoals of the next Parliament, they may be able to take the Liberals onto an unprecedented fifth consecutive victory. If not, Martin will earn only a few lines in the history books as prime minister and can go back to his steamships and comfortable farm in Quebec.
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I think he was pushed to take matters into his own hands. I have a teenage son and if he was involved with a drug dealer I would be furious and try anything to save him like this father did for his daughter. Why do police often say they can't do anything until it's too late? Whether it be a drug dealer or an abusive spouse, the police can't seem to do anything until something really bad happens. In this case they could have raided the drug dealers home and arrested him. The whole town knew what was going on in that house but yet the police chose to do nothing. Release this man and give him a medal for doing the right thing by his daughter. I can't wait to see the episode on W5, I will certainly be watching this one.
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