If a federal election were held today, the Liberal Party would be headed for a minority government. A new poll shows the party has 38 per cent support, as it comes under fierce attack in several regions of Canada.

Darrell Bricker, the president of Ipsos-Reid, which conducted the poll for CTV News and the Globe and Mail, says the numbers don't look good for a planned spring election.

"You don't win a majority government from 38 per cent. It would be very difficult to do, particularly when you look at some of these regional numbers," Bricker told Canada AM. "They are in some fairly dire straits if they go to the people tomorrow."

Although support for the Liberal Party has slumped since its pre-sponsorship scandal highs, Prime Minister Paul Martin's personal popularity is surging ahead of his party's -- at 57 per cent approval vs. 34 per cent disapproval.

In fact, Martin's approval rating was in the majority in every province and region of the country, and at its highest in Saskatchewan/Manitoba (62 per cent).

The poll paints "a portrait of a schizophrenic country," says CTV's Craig Oliver.

"On the one hand Canadians want to pummel the Liberals, and on the other hand they want to promote the leader, Paul Martin," the Ottawa bureau chief says.

In a previous poll released Jan. 15, weeks before Auditor General Sheila Fraser delivered her report on the Public Works Department's mishandling of a federal sponsorship program, the Liberals were at a comfortable 48 per cent support nationwide.

In the ensuing month, they dropped as far down as 35 per cent, and then stabilized by the end of February at 36 per cent.

This latest poll, which surveyed more than 2,000 people across Canada, shows that the Liberals are up two points since the last survey.

Teh latest poll found that another 26 per cent would vote for the new Conservative Party, though the party has no leader. The NDP would claim 17 per cent of the vote, with the Bloc Quebecois trailing with 12 per cent of the federal vote nationally (49 per cent in Quebec). The Green Party would garner four per cent, and two per cent would go to some "other party."

For Martin's troubled party, the real story is in the regions, where Liberals are being battered by relentless political attacks:

• Ontario: Though the Liberals are at 47 per cent support, the Conservatives are at 31 per cent, poised to make major in-roads in this Grit bastion, now that the old Tories and Alliance have merged to eliminate "vote splitting" in the next election. The NDP has 16 per cent support.
• Quebec: While the Liberals were leading just a few months ago, support has swung hard over to the Bloc Quebecois who are at 49 per cent, with the Liberals way behind at 31 per cent. Lagging 18 points behind may be incentive to call a quick election. "Perhaps the best thing for them is to move as quickly as they can before it gets worse," McGill professor Alain Gagnon told CTV News.
• Alberta: The Conservatives now stand at 57 per cent, dwarfing the Liberals at 24 per cent. "There is not going to be a Liberal left standing if these numbers hold," Ipsos-Reid senior vice-president John Wright told CTV.
• British Columbia, Saskatchewan and Manitoba: The Liberals are locked in a three-way fight; the same can be said for Saskatchewan/Manitoba.
• Atlantic Canada: Perhaps the only basin of good fortune, the Liberals, at 49 per cent support, lead by 18 points over nearest rivals the Conservative Party. The NDP has 17 per cent support.

Such results could spell a minority government for Martin if he does as expected and calls an election after the federal budget is presented March 23.

"Right now, it would be a very risky move for him to go to the people with these numbers," Bricker says.

"Typically what's happened to the Liberal Party in election campaigns, particularly in '97 and 2000, is they haven't gained support during the campaign. They've actually slipped back a little bit. And if you slip back from 38, you're in serious trouble."

CTV's Oliver says the party should take some encouragement from the fact that Martin is considered the best leader.

"It is a lot easier to turn around a losing party than it is to recover the lustre of a losing leader," Oliver said.

Bricker points out, though, that Martin's personal support may be due to the fact that he's the only real leader available.

"I mean, you've got Jack Layton who is not even in the House of Commons. You've got the Conservatives going through their leadership convention. So Martin looks good in comparison I guess. There really is nobody else there," Bricker says.

Poll Details:

 These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/Globe and Mail/CTV poll conducted between March 2nd and March 7th 2004. The questions are based on a randomly selected sample of 2,111 adult Canadians. With a sample of this size, the results for each question are considered accurate to within ± 2.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population.