While support for a merged Canadian Alliance-Progressive Conservative Party has slipped slightly since early October, a recent polls suggests four in ten Canadians would still vote for the united party in the next federal election.

The Ipsos-Reid poll, conducted for CTV and The Globe and Mail, shows that 39 per cent of those polled said they would likely vote for the new Conservative Party of Canada. However, that's a decline of seven points since early October, when the merger was just speculation.

"It should be noted, however, that at this level of support, they could present a formidable challenge to the governing Liberal Party," an Ipsos-Reid news release said.

A challenge is exactly what Alliance Leader Stephen Harper and Tory Leader Peter MacKay were planning when they inked the merger proposal in mid-October.

"This division of conservatives is ending. Our swords will henceforth be pointed at the Liberals, not at each other," Harper said on Oct. 16.

There are problems, however. While Harper has been able to grab support for the merger from his caucus, MacKay is having a harder time. Contributing to his dissent is David Orchard, whose support at the Tory leadership convention ensured his leadership win.

The deal MacKay agreed to with Orchard included a pledge not to engage in unite-the-right talks. Now Orchard is calling on Tory MPs to reject the merger.

"This creature ... is an illegitimate creation conceived in deception and born in betrayal," Orchard said after the merger was announced.

That might not be the only problem. The Ipsos-Reid poll shows Canadians believe the Alliance will continue to have problems trying to break through in seat-rich Ontario and Quebec.

Seven in ten (68%) of those surveyed said the new Conservative Party is just the Alliance taking over the Progressive Conservatives. One in four (26%) disagree.

Regionally, Quebecers were the most likely to feel this way, with 73 per cent reporting such a response. Atlantic Canada came in with 61 per cent and Alberta 58 per cent. Ontario reflects the national average.

Regardless of the problems, the two sides seem determined to try and see the merger through. The timetable calls for a ratification vote by the respective members by Dec. 12. It also aims to pick a new leader by March 21.

There has been much speculation that former Ontario premier Mike Harris will run for the leadership of the party. He has said he would more than likely make a decision in early November.

According to the Ipsos-Reid poll, 32 per cent of those surveyed said they would seriously consider voting for the Conservative Party if Harris becomes the new leader. About half (46%) strongly disagree they would vote for the new party under Harris.

Others eyeing the leadership bid include MacKay, Harper, Ontario Health Minister Tony Clement and former Alberta treasurer Jim Dinning.

New Brunswick Premier Bernard Lord and former Alliance leader Stockwell Day have already ruled themselves out.

The Ipsos-Reid poll was conducted between Oct. 21-24. The telephone survey is based ona  randomly selected sample of 1,056 adults. Results are considered accurate to plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.