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Canadian SARS outbreak is winding down: doctor

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Canada AM: Dr. Richard Schabas, York Central Hospital Chief of Staff
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CTV News: Dr. Richard Schabas on his CMAJ article, saying the worst is over in SARS outbreak
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Date: Thu. Apr. 24 2003 5:53 PM ET

The worst of the SARS outbreak is over, says a former Ontario medical officer of health. Dr. Richard Schabas says it could be just weeks before severe acute respiratory syndrome is just a memory.

"I think the data is very clear that the peak of this outbreak was in the last week of March," Schabas told CTV News Wednesday. "And over the last four weeks, we've seen a steady decline of new cases. Actually, we are seeing very few new cases over the last couple of weeks."

"And in fact, if you look at the Health Canada graph of the illness outbreak, it's an even more dramatic picture. It's very typical of the way infectious disease outbreaks begin. They start small, they get rapidly larger, and they typically get rapidly smaller. That's the pattern with SARS, which is very good news," Schabas says. "We should be very happy in this city."

His comments came as another patient died of SARS Wednesday. The 78-year-old woman with underlying health conditions became the second victim in two days. On Tuesday, SARS claimed a 64-year-old man being treated in hospital for the respiratory illness. Both deaths occurred in the Toronto area.

Schabas, the chief of staff at York Central Hospital, says the deaths are unfortunate but he is comforted by the fact that the outbreak in Toronto has been almost entirely hospital-centred. "It's been a real problem in hospitals, but there have not been a lot of community cases," he says.

The big question now is exactly how long will it be before the SARS outbreak is over. "I think maybe as soon as a few weeks, maybe a couple of months," Schabas says.

In an article published this week in the Canadian Medical Association Journal, Schabas said there are a number of outcomes to the outbreak. On each end of the extreme, SARS cases could grow at an explosive rate, or the illness could simply disappear completely from the population.

"Our planning for SARS should be based on an in-between scenario," he wrote. "We will continue to see new SARS cases, usually at relatively low levels but with occasional flare-ups.

"In other words, we should plan on getting used to living with SARS."

As of April 23, there had been a cumulative total of 330 cases in Canada, the majority of them in and around Toronto -- the second major hotspot for SARS outside of Asia, where it originated.

The death of the latest victim came as Canada lashed out at the WHO for putting Toronto on a travel advisory list due to the SARS outbreak. It's reasons included the size of the city's outbreak, the fact it had spread from health care workers into the community and that people travelling from Toronto had exported the disease to other countries.

Ontario health care officials said the decision was unwarranted. Ottawa was also steamed. Health Minister Anne McLellan said the advisory was not "appropriate based on our understanding of the circumstances on the ground.

While Canada has the largest cluster of cases outside of China and Hong Kong, the SARS numbers between the two continents are not even close. In China, there have been 2,305 cases and 106 deaths, and in Hong Kong, 105 people have died and more than 1,450 made ill.

The cases in China are also growing far quicker. There was only been one new case of SARS in Toronto in recent days, while in China, another 147 people came down with the illness on Wednesday alone, and nine more people died.

Number of cases across Canada as of April 23:

  • Ontario -- 136 probable and 131 suspect cases (127 of these have been discharged from hospital; 16 have died)
  • British Columbia -- 4 probable and 47 suspect cases
  • New Brunswick -- 2 suspect cases
  • Saskatchewan -- 1 suspect case
  • Alberta -- 5 suspect cases
  • Prince Edward Island -- 4 suspect cases

With reports from The Canadian Press

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